Member Info for Nappers

Whatever!!! 🥱🙄

ASI, if my posts are really as worthless as you claim, why do they keep attracting so much of your attention?

The scroll button is still available. 👍

Hi T9rat. Before you disappear, would you kindly explain why you think TW is going nowhere? It's easy to make a statement like that, but far more useful if you share the reasoning behind it. House prices, interest rates, affordability, build costs, government policy and dividends all influence the outlook, so it would be interesting to understand what factors have led you to that conclusion.

ASI.

The reality is you have to take my word on the dummy quotes, as I could be pulling them out of the sky. 😄

Unless I provide the platform, time, size and screenshots, they're simply an observation based on what I was quoted at the time.

If the post isn't of interest, feel free to scroll by. 👍

Thanks for picking me up on that, Swerv. 👍

The dummy quotes had changed since I ran the comparison. My point was based on the prices available at the time rather than the live quote now.

For those who follow dummy trades, here's an interesting comparison:

19 June

Buy: 1.42p

Sell: 1.371p

22 June

Buy: 1.44p

Sell: 1.37p

At first glance, not much appears to have changed. However, despite all the noise, uncertainty and profit-taking over recent days, the market makers are still quoting around the same levels as they were last week.

The spread remains relatively tight for a stock of this nature, and there doesn't appear to be any significant deterioration in pricing.

Dummy trades are only one tool and should never be viewed in isolation, but the data doesn't suggest market makers are scrambling to lower prices.

Not a prediction, just an observation.

DYOR. 📈

JohnBri4 - Fair challenge, but you've actually made my point for me.

Yes, I top-sliced some shares on 12 June and said so openly at the time. I also clearly stated it wasn't because I'd turned bearish on WIZZ, but because of the geopolitical risks, uncertainty around Hormuz, oil prices and the lack of guidance from the company.

Nothing has changed. In fact, some of those uncertainties have increased since then.

Would I feel better buying back lower? Of course. That's the whole point of top-slicing and risk management. Equally, if the risks disappear and the share price moves materially higher, I'll have fewer shares than I had before and that would be the price of caution.

My posts aren't about talking the share price down. They're simply my assessment of risk versus reward at a given point in time. Sometimes I'll be right, sometimes I'll be wrong. That's investing.

The difference is I'm happy to post both bullish and bearish views as the situation changes.

Perhaps it would be more productive for you to focus on WIZZ's fundamentals and the risks facing the company rather than playing detective with other people's posting history. After all, the share price won't be determined by what I posted on 12 June.

Cev, if the share price reaches 50p before they learn to spell Defence, I'll happily overlook the typo. 😄

Mind you, if spelling was a prerequisite for investing success, most bulletin boards would be empty.

Iliri, to be fair, I've been one of the more bearish posters recently and have made that clear in my previous posts.

That doesn't mean I want the share price to fall, nor does it mean I'm short. Quite the opposite — I'm a holder.

My concern has simply been the uncertainty surrounding Hormuz, US-Iran relations and wider Middle East tensions. Markets tend to dislike uncertainty, and I've felt that risk wasn't fully reflected in the share price.

As I've said before, selling my holding isn't really an option. If WIZZ rises, my existing holding benefits. If it falls back into the £10s, I'm more likely to add than panic sell. That's why I haven't been top-slicing.

Being cautious in the short term and positive in the long term aren't mutually exclusive. Sometimes the best opportunities arise when sentiment is weak.

DYOR.

Cev, no magic number. 😄 "Another stratosphere" was tongue in cheek.

If ALRT starts converting potential into meaningful contracts and recurring revenue, today's valuation could look very different.

Contracts are key. 👍🇬🇧

One thing that stands out to me is that we still don't have much in the way of clarification.

No major positive developments. No major negative developments. Just a lot of unanswered questions and uncertainty for the market to digest.

Normally, no news might be considered good news. However, when investors are trying to assess geopolitical risk, uncertainty itself can become a negative factor.

The memorandum was undoubtedly a positive step and lower oil prices are helpful, but there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding Hormuz, US-Iran relations and wider Middle East tensions.

My feeling is that the market is more likely to focus on what it doesn't know rather than what it does know. That doesn't mean WIZZ can't rise on Monday, but personally I still think the balance of probabilities favours further caution and a move towards the £10 level.

Of course, that could change quickly if something positive is announced imminently. At the moment, though, it feels like a game of poker and the Iranians may be holding the Royal Flush — the Strait of Hormuz. The question is whether Trump will ultimately have to eat humble pie and emerge from this weaker than when it started.

DYOR. 📈✈️

No apologies for repeating myself, or any other poster for that matter. It's important to remain focused on what matters and shut out the negative noise.

For me, the interesting thing about ALRT is that even the slightest hint, sniff or rumour of a meaningful contract could send the share price into another stratosphere.

Let's remind ourselves what has been assembled in a relatively short period of time:

• Main Market listing

• Oracle partnership

• IMSL partnership

• Meridian accelerator launch

• WhitespaceOS / CollectiveOS ecosystem

• MOD engagement and transparency notices

• Classified product development

• Gloucestershire Police AI trials

• A board and advisory network with deep defence, government and technology connections

None of that guarantees success, and contracts are what ultimately matter. However, the foundations appear to be getting stronger with each update.

The market is currently valuing potential. If that potential starts converting into significant commercial contracts, the conversation could change very quickly.

Those focusing solely on today's share price may miss what is being built in the background.

If you're going to buy an ALRT ticket, it may be worth doing so before they become expensive, scarce, or both.

As always, high risk, high reward.

DYOR. 📈🇬🇧

My view is that the uncertainty surrounding Hormuz hasn't gone away.

Yes, there has been progress and some ships are continuing to transit, but we're still seeing conflicting statements, ongoing tensions and plenty of unanswered questions. The Strait is not fully closed, but neither is it back to normal.

I also get the feeling that Iran now holds more leverage in the negotiations than it did previously. Excuse the pun, but they may now hold a "Trump card". Whether that's true or not, the perception alone can create distrust and make meaningful progress harder to achieve.

What concerns me most is that trust between the US and Iran remains fragile, and the continued tensions involving Israel and Lebanon are not helping the situation. Every new accusation of ceasefire breaches risks undermining confidence just when confidence is needed most.

Markets dislike uncertainty, and there is still plenty of it around. Because of that, I believe the market is more likely to react negatively on Monday, with further downside possible as investors digest the ongoing geopolitical risks.

The dimmer switch has been turned down, but it hasn't been switched off.

DYOR. 📈

Yep, that makes absolute sense to me.

A day to think about it and reassess tomorrow is probably no bad thing. I've currently got a buy order sitting at £10.50, but a lot can happen in the next 36 hours.

Let's see how the Hormuz situation develops and what comes out of the weekend. Who knows, I may even decide to lower it to £10.00.

No rush. The market will still be there on Monday.

One thing that seems highly likely is a period of price discovery at the open. Given all the geopolitical headlines over the weekend, I wouldn't be surprised to see WIZZ spend some time in auction while the market works out where fair value sits. Until that process is complete, buying and selling can be restricted as orders are matched and a new opening price is established.

The key question is where that equilibrium ends up once the dust settles.

IMHO. 👍

GLA.

This is exactly the uncertainty I've been referring to. Lebanon strikes, renewed Hormuz concerns and the prospect of further Trump announcements all show that the situation remains fluid.

Peace may still be the eventual destination, but the market dislikes uncertainty and there is still plenty of it around. This isn't an on/off switch; it's more of a dimmer switch, and regardless of the final outcome the market will continue adjusting as new information emerges.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see WIZZ back around £10.50 on Monday, possibly lower, unless we get some sort of miracle announcement over the weekend that genuinely reduces the uncertainty.

Ignore the uncertainty at your peril.

DYOR. 👍

Paul, yep, I understood your post and where you were coming from. Fair points. 👍

Still - Disagreements between allies don't automatically mean the relationship is over.

As for the camouflaged swearing, either use the words or leave them out altogether. It doesn't add anything to the argument. 👍

Paul,

100% agree.

The company has achieved a huge amount in a very short space of time and, for me, the risk/reward remains attractive at these levels.

I sometimes struggle to understand the logic of waiting until a share is significantly more expensive before deciding it's a good investment. If you believe

in the story and the potential, surely these are the levels where you want to be doing your research and building a position.

Each to their own, but I'd rather buy when it's cheap than chase it higher later.

GLA

Business as usual? Not yet, in my opinion.

Thousands more transits and successful US-Iran negotiations will be needed before I start getting comfortable. 🚢⚠️

DYOR. 📈

Fume,

I broadly agree on the direction of travel, but if recent events have taught us anything, it's never to underestimate the potential for another "f**k up" as you eloquently put it. 😄

Markets seem to be pricing in a smoother path ahead, but geopolitics has a habit of throwing in a surprise when everyone starts getting comfortable.

Let's hope common sense prevails for a change and that recent events involving the US aren't repeated. After all, Trump can be unpredictable, and it doesn't take much to move market sentiment. One unexpected post or headline can knock a couple of pounds off a share price very quickly, as we've experienced on several occasions over the last few months.

Oh well, £10.50 incoming IMHO! 😄

GLA 👍

Paul,

100% agree.

The Roughan involvement is difficult to ignore. People don't commit to that scale of warrants without doing their homework and seeing significant upside potential.

The company still needs to deliver contracts and revenue, but the foundations being put in place are exactly why many of us are invested.

What's also remarkable is the number of posts we're seeing about brokers restricting buys, allowing sells, changing platforms, opening new accounts and moving to brokers such as HL or SW just to gain access to ALRT.

Whether it's a liquidity issue, broker policy or simply demand exceeding supply, it's certainly generating plenty of discussion. There is obviously a lot of interest in the stock.

GLA 👍🚀