Member Info for Nappers

Asimpleinvestor,

FUD! FUD! FUD! 😄

All many of us are waiting for now is whether the company can convert the opportunities, partnerships and discussions into actual contract news and revenue.

I have tried to think of a positive from your constant posting and, to be fair, you probably do help keep ALRT near the top of the Hot Chat Topic rankings. Congratulations on that. 👏

Beyond that, I'm struggling. 🤔😄

Still, every board needs a sceptic. Let's see what the company delivers and let the market decide.

Don't bother replying, as you won't get a response. 😄

DYOR. 👍

NCTade,

I broadly agree.

I'm not saying the deal won't happen. It may well do.

My point has always been that the market seems to be pricing in a smooth path from ceasefire to lasting peace, when there are clearly still significant risks and disagreements behind the scenes.

If senior US officials are expressing doubts and Trump himself is openly talking about military action if the agreement fails, then it seems sensible to at

least acknowledge the possibility that things may not go entirely to plan.

Some posters appear to be focusing solely on the upside scenario. I'm simply trying to consider both outcomes.

That's not being bearish. That's risk management.

DYOR. 👍

AK57 - 😄 To be fair, if I posted:

"WIZZ Strong Buy. Price target £15."

I'd probably get a few recommendations too.

People naturally prefer bullish targets to cautious questions.

That doesn't make the target wrong, nor does it make caution wrong.

The trick is separating analysis from wishful thinking and remembering that price targets are opinions, not guarantees.

DYOR. 👍

Lucky7777,

Further to my last post, have I ever said I was short? Have I ever said I held £1 million in short positions?

Quite the opposite. I've repeatedly stated that I hold a substantial position and would benefit if the share price rises.

Questioning whether a share might pull back before moving higher isn't the same thing as being short.

DYOR. 👍

Lucky7777,

You can be positive on a share's long-term prospects whilst questioning its short-term direction.

My position and reasoning have been consistent throughout.

DYOR. 👍

HH,

You seem to be insinuating that you've filtered me. If so, fair enough.

What puzzles me is how someone can be so certain about the motives of posts they supposedly can't read. 😄

For the record, my position and reasoning have been consistent throughout.

DYOR. 👍

Lucky7777,

What constitutes a sizeable holding to me may be very different to what it means to the man next door.

Wanting the share price to go up and questioning whether it has got ahead of itself in the short term are not mutually exclusive positions.

I've explained my reasoning several times. You don't have to agree with it, but dismissing it simply because it doesn't fit your narrative isn't really an argument.

Investing isn't about wanting a share to go up. It's about trying to make the best decisions with the information available at the time.

DYOR. 👍

🥕 Steady on, Carrot, you're starting to sound like WIZZ's Head of Investor Relations. 😄

The fact that a few ships are moving is definitely encouraging, and I agree it's in nobody's interest to keep the Strait closed.

My only point is that a handful of ships does not suddenly clear the backlog of thousands waiting for confidence, insurance approvals and normal trading conditions to return.

You're focusing on what could go right. I'm simply trying to work out what could still go wrong.

Somewhere between your optimism and my caution probably lies the truth.

DYOR. 👍

🥕 Perhaps part of the problem is that investors generally like reading bullish posts and dislike reading bearish ones.

I'm not trying to be either. I'm simply trying to get the best value for my money.

Funny old game really. If I posted that WIZZ was definitely going to £14 next week, the recommendation box would probably light up like a Christmas tree. 😄

Yet when someone tries to take a more balanced approach and discuss both the risks and the opportunities, some people seem to take umbrage because it doesn't fit their preferred narrative.

I'm perfectly happy to be proved wrong. I already have a substantial holding, so if it flies higher, great.

I'm just trying to make sensible decisions about when, or if, I add more.

DYOR. 👍

🥕 Fair points, and if everything goes to plan I can certainly see the case for a further move higher.

My hesitation isn't because I'm bearish on WIZZ. Far from it. I already have a substantial holding, so if the share price continues to rise, I'll benefit from that.

The question for me is whether the market is getting a little ahead of itself in the short term.

If I'm wrong and it keeps rising, so be it. I still participate through my existing holding.

If I'm right and we get a pullback towards the mid-£10s, I get the opportunity to add a meaningful chunk at a lower price.

Either way, I'm not trying to predict every move. I'm simply trying to get the best value for my money.

DYOR. 👍

😄 You could be right.

If ALRT starts landing meaningful contracts and revenues, the noise levels on this board will probably go through the roof.

The challenge won't be finding opinions, it'll be filtering them.

Cev, I should also apologise for not responding to your post last night. Good to see that, like me, you have an ex-military background. I'm assuming ex-Para, given the comments about jumping out of perfectly serviceable aircraft and the jump pay comment. 😄

DYOR. 👍

Hi Licker - Fair points, and I can certainly see the bull case.

Oil has dropped sharply, engine issues are gradually being addressed and demand appears resilient.

That said, I'm still not convinced the outlook over the next couple of months is quite as straightforward as the market is currently pricing in.

I have a substantial holding myself, so selling out completely isn't really an option I'm considering. The upside if everything falls into place could be significant.

My dilemma is whether to top-slice some strength now and risk missing further upside, or sit tight and hope for the opportunity to add a meaningful chunk back closer to the mid-£10s.

For me, that's the real question at the moment.

DYOR. 👍

Interesting Spread for Size Trades 🤔

Just did a dummy buy and sell for 1,000,000 shares.

Buy: 1.693p

Sell: 1.638p

That's a spread of around 0.055p, which doesn't look unreasonable given the size involved.

Combined with the apparent bias towards blue trades over recent sessions, it suggests there is still liquidity available for meaningful volume.

Not a prediction of where the share price goes next, but another small piece of the puzzle.

DYOR. 👍

When you look at ALRT's trades this morning, there appear to be far more buys than sells.

Yes, I know some of the reported buys may actually be sells and vice versa, so the data is never perfect.

That said, the same pattern seems to have been showing up over the last few trading days, with a noticeable bias towards blue trades.

It doesn't guarantee anything, but sustained buying interest is usually worth paying attention to, particularly following recent developments.

Let's see whether the pattern continues and, more importantly, whether it eventually translates into share price appreciation.

DYOR. 👍

The bulls see lower fuel costs, improving sentiment and the prospect of a more stable operating environment.

The bears see a fragile ceasefire, no nuclear deal, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and a market that may be getting ahead of itself.

As ever, the truth probably lies somewhere in between.

For me, the question isn't whether today's headlines are positive. They clearly are.

The real question is whether the market has already priced in more good news than has actually been delivered.

That's the dynamite question. 💥

DYOR

If you believe the profits are coming, you need to take your position before everyone else believes it.

By the time the contracts are signed, revenues are flowing and the story is obvious to everyone, the market may already have done much of the heavy lifting.

Of course, that's where the risk lies. You can be early, or you can be wrong. That's the trade-off every investor has to make.

Personally, I'd rather do the research, understand the risks and make my decision before the crowd arrives than wait for complete confirmation and pay a much higher price.

Time will tell whether that conviction is justified.

🚂👍

GLA and DYOR.

Hi Gary - Everything has risk, including ALRT. The question is whether the potential reward justifies taking that risk.

Like you, I've learned that constantly tinkering with positions can sometimes be more damaging than simply sitting on your hands and letting the story play out.

I've also learned, often painfully, that it's a crime not to learn from your mistakes. The trouble is that some of the old sayings don't always work in investing. Sometimes "no pain, no gain" is true. Other times the pain is simply the market telling you that you got it wrong.

As for ALRT, nobody knows where it ultimately ends up. What attracts me is the combination of the sector, the opportunities, the BOD and the stage the company is currently at.

High risk? Absolutely.

High potential? I believe so.

Now it's down to execution.

You can board the train and endure the bumps along the way, or stay on the platform wondering where it might have gone.

GLA and DYOR. 👍

TWK, hiya boyo. 👋

You've been forecasting the end of ALRT for so long that I'm beginning to think you'll outlast the company, the market and possibly civilisation itself. 😄

Let's see what management delivers over the next 12 months and revisit the discussion then.

Au revoir, mon vieux

DYOR. 👍

Fume, if you're referring to my posts, I think you've misunderstood it.

My limerick was simply a light-hearted response to Stan's bullish limerick. It wasn't an attempt to talk the share down, and I'm certainly not a shorter.

I've been consistent in saying I think WIZZ could revisit the lower £10s, not because I want it to, but because I believe the market may be getting ahead of itself.

There is still no nuclear deal, no clear picture of what happens next, and uncertainty remains around the Strait of Hormuz. A ceasefire is encouraging, but it's not the same as a lasting peace agreement.

As for the idea that posters are being paid to influence the share price, I've always found that a bit of a myth. WIZZ is a multi-billion-pound company. Its share price will ultimately be driven by earnings, fuel costs, passenger demand and geopolitical developments, not by a handful of anonymous posts on a bulletin board.

I'm happy to be proved wrong. That's what makes a market.

DYOR. 👍

Cev - Fair post.

I bought Rolls-Royce at £1.12 and sold at £5.51, so I know all about leaving money on the table.

Sometimes you can do all the research in the world, read every RNS and every chat board post, and still end up relying partly on gut instinct.

Investing is ultimately about weighing risk and reward.

Jumping out of a plane with a reserve parachute is generally considered safer than jumping with just one. Jumping without either would be reckless, although you might get lucky.

With ALRT, I see it as jumping with a single parachute. The potential reward is obvious, but there are still plenty of unknowns.

Mind you, at my age, I probably shouldn't be jumping out of planes in the first place... but funny enough, I still do. 😄

Perhaps that's why ALRT appeals to me. Sometimes, after you've done the research and weighed the risks, investing still requires a leap of faith.

GLA and DYOR. 👍