Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Frank

My answer to that, if you can predict a Google doubling or an Intel, or Nvidia doubling then Great!

These companies are on high PE multiples and a huge correction as happened at the end of the dot com bubble will happen. I know that bubbles always go on longer than you expect.

Thanks Frank, but I'm staying with Wizz. I believe in it and I understand it.

Fuel price savings could be €600m within the next couple of years. Think what that would do to Wizz Air's profitability.

By the way, I was burned badly during the dot com bubble. I'm not doing the same with AI.

An even more simple way to think of Wizz Air's potential is, in F27 we should transport around 80m passengers. Going by Ryanair. If we didn't have the expense of 25-30 grounded Aircraft, Wizz should generate a net profit of €10 per passenger. That would be an €800m profit. At a PE of 8, the share price would be £56.

Stan

I do everything as ball park numbers. Yeslam calculates everything with a lot of precision and from what we've seen so far, he's very accurate.

My view currently is that the average price seems to come out to be roughly a PE of 6.

In my opinion the current day to day share price and short interest will have no effect on Wizz in the coming year or two. As we've discussed repeatedly, when the Wizz share price moves, it moves extremely fast.

Back to my ball park numbers:

Summer 26= 230 operating Aircraft making an operating profit of €4m each=€920m

25 Grounded Aircraft = €200m loss (Depreciation)

H2 27= €200m loss (we'll still not be profitable through the winter)

Full year 27 we'll make €520m.

Given the profit growth, we should have a PE of about 8. That'll give us a share price of £36 for summer 2027.

Well on the way to £42 for the end of 2028.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/JP-Morgan-Says-Oil-Prices-Could-Plunge-Into-30s-by-2027.html

The coming tailwinds:

1. Lower Oil Prices

2. Certain countries ex.UK cutting passenger tax.

3.War in Ukraine to end.

4.Grounded Aircraft returning.

5. Insufficient new Aircraft to compete with Wizz Air.

I don't know how anyone cannot be bullish over the medium term.

Thanks Lucas

Please Give us a monthly update.

Lucas

How's it going there?

Will we have a full fleet of operational Aircraft for Summer 2028?

I think that if the recent share price rise was driven entirely by Ukraine negotiations then it would be far more volatile than it has been.

In my view, institutions are getting a better picture now of winter bookings. I don't think that they were ever going to be as bad as was forecast a few weeks ago. The share price trend is upwards, I think that'll continue.

Thanks Lucas. We want to hear from you more. You're a great source.

I'm going to add on Monday.

Yeslam. My view is that it is a risk. If it pays off, it will pay off in a big way. You have a population of 10m. Relatively wealthy people. English is widely spoken ( that is a big barrier to travel removed). Unlike Abu Dhabi, Israel is very poorly connected to Europe with affordable Air Travel.

I've been programmed for £10. It's so hard now to buy more at £12. But I know that it's still a complete bargain. 😫

Nice Article Tommy

But typical journalist. Talks of MOL's bankruptcy theory (nonsense of course) and the low share price. Totally fails to balance the article by saying that despite the grounded Aircraft the Airline has made a net profit of €800m in the last 2.5 years.

To be fair, he did mention the surprise recent H1 earnings. It wasn't a surprise for our Yeslam though. He calculated it, pretty nearly.

Garonne

You've got to believe in this stock. All the volatility is just noise. In 3 years time it'll be £40+, 5 years time £80+ and 7 years time £100+.

Frank. Check this link.

https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001527431

My opinion is that the front lines in Ukraine are pretty irrelevant. It's effectively a statement with Ukraine allowing small advances by the Russians to save Ukrainian lives. In 2025 Russia has gained about 1% of Ukrainian territory and nearly all of that is open fields.

What is relevant is the destruction of Oil refineries. Russia can't exist without Oil refineries, they're that important. Is it 30% of their production which has been taken out in 4 months.

The war will end soon. IMHO

My assumption is that the budget will have no long term material impact on the company. Wizz Air have 21 aircraft based in the UK. If the British Government makes the UK less competitive, there are other bases around Europe that could use more Aircraft.

The budget will significantly effect Jet2 and to a lesser extent Easyjet.

With negotiations going on to conclude the war in Ukraine, I can only see the UK budget as a minor factor.

Germany now are reducing passenger taxes. Sweden have already reduced them. I think that it would be Swimming against the tide to increase them significantly.

One certain prediction. There'll be a huge amount of volatility.

Frank

As I've said. I don't have a clue. I'm extremely optimistic for the long term.

I've already said £14 for Christmas 25.

""""""""""::":""""£30 for Christmas 26.

These are my guesses. Not predictions.

Long term, I see £40 then £60 then £100.

Stan

I posted a lot about the competition with Ryanair. This is what I know. I don't know anything about finance.

Basically, there isn't a magic Aeroplane tree which you can shake and Aircraft fall out. Ryanair have 600 or so Aircraft. 400 of those Aircraft need to be retired relatively soon. Boeing may or may not deliver new Aircraft in a timely fashion. They have not managed to do so in the last 20 years. My company will have had to wait 8 years for our delayed B777's.

In order for Ryanair to operate out of Ukraine they will need to move Aircraft from other bases, leaving gaps in the market elsewhere.

The point being, there are plenty of routes for both Ryanair and Wizz. If they compete head to head on a route, it's because there's sufficient demand to do so.

Wizz and Ryanair, rather than competing with each other, actually work in defacto partnership. They deliver Passengers to each other to connect to different destinations.

There is a World shortage of Aircraft currently.

Stan

When optimism returns to Wizz, the share price will rise hard and fast. The PE that I quoted is not unprecedented, it was over 15 in 2018. That was probably without the potential growth that exists right now.

Before anyone says anything I understand that if the profit comes in at just above break even, we can get a very high multiple PE. For me, in the case of Wizz, to use PE as a calculator of Share price, the operating profit needs to be above £200m.

I think that the peace deal is on an unstoppable path now. Trump wants it to happen and like it or not, he has the power to make it happen.

With peace in Ukraine, there'll be a very significant growth dividend applied.

I also think that the winter losses currently priced in will not materialise. I'm anticipating a £/€200m full year operating profit. I'll let Yeslam make the calculations on how that can happen.

Given the Ukraine growth dividend and the £200m profit, maybe we could have a PE of 13-15. Making the share price £26-£30 for the summer or end of next year.

I've got it. I'm delusional..