Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

GaryDav

Yes but F24 was, from memory, net profit €315m, operating profit €349m.

I think a tax credit is reasonable. Wizz paid too much tax.

F27 should be between €100m and €200m operating profit. F28 could easily be €700m operating profit with 270 operational Aircraft and maybe 10 grounded for summer 27.

I don't think that it's rose tinted. Wizz will return to normal, normality is a minimum operating profit of €3m per Aircraft.

Joo

Well Yeslam, who is a master of these numbers (I strongly recommend that you review his posts) said that we have 34 remaining grounded after the return of a couple that are going through final checks. After that, I think that you can work on around 1 to 1.5 returns per month.

My guess is that we'll still have 22 grounded for peak summer season 26.

In my opinion, the current low share price is totally artificial and is the result of our Calendar.

If we've made a net profit now of €280m for H1 that means in the last 2.5 years we've made a net profit of €800m. Averaged out that gives us a trailing PE of 3.55.

In the next 2.5 years we'll also probably make around €800m, giving us a forward PE of 3.55.

Therefore it's totally artificial to say that we're not making any money and there's no forward PE. Based on this use of the calendar the share price drops to extreme lows.

I think that smart retail investors should just see through this nonsense and buy. The above profits occurred/will occur during the GTF/Ukraine/Israel/Abu Dhabi issues.

AK57

One of the analysts poured cold water on a share buyback recently. It is in fact not legal.

This is what I understand, we own Wizz Air Holdings which is a parent company and doesn't earn "Distributable earnings" in it's own right. The company is registered in Jersey and under Jersey law, share buyback is not legal from such company.

Free cash is more likely to be invested in Aircraft ownership in the future to generate "book value".

Robbren

Regarding Barclays. Yes disappointing but they have their stop loss criteria. They'll be back.

I know. Posting is like emailing, you can't tell the tone of voice that's attached to the meaning.

Yeslam

If you're talking about the hard landing. That'll be covered by the insurance and maybe beneficial to Wizz.

That's not a good plan Robbren.

Look at the load factors

The falling numbers of GTF grounded Aircraft

The most efficient Aircraft in the World (239 seat A321 NEO's)

Fast expanding East European market

Little to no growth in competitor company's

Potential for a Golden Swan in Ukraine

This panic sell off doesn't change anything.

GaryDav

I think now that we're going to hit the bottom before results day.

Prior to the June 4th results, everyone was buying, it was over exuberance. They thought that the worst was behind wizz and these results would be the turning point.

Well now, because of June, the exact opposite is happening. Everyone is scared to death of these results.

In my view, slightly negative will be viewed very positively.

I still expect £14 by Christmas. I've been watching Wizz long enough to know how volatile it's share price is.

"Analysts’ views on Wizz are as wide as its valuation metrics. A price/earnings ratio of 43 times for the current year reflects the low earnings forecast but falls to under 10 times based on 2027 numbers."

And 1.5 times 2028 numbers. Potentially.

But of course, since that time, they've said end C27. So probably take my previous point with a pinch of salt.

Varadi said in Reuters on Sep 1st that he hoped a deal with P&W for accelerating the GTF groundings recovery would be announced prior to the H1 earnings report. Well, he now has a week to make that announcement.

I sticking with the 14. I think the relief rally will be phenomenal.

The fear in the market is palpable. That's why the bounce after the earnings will be tremendous.

John

As GLTrader requested. Explain your mathematics for getting to bankruptcy. Please.

John

Yeslam is absolutely correct. You give some very good information but you slant it with total nonsense.

Wizz is not flavour of the month- clearly true

To say it never ill be flavour of the month is to disregard the history of the stock. Twice it's nearly quadrupled in a short period and once it's more than doubled. That's 3 rapid moves up in 10 years.

The probability is that it will be flavour of the month again.

John

Finally you post some good information rather than trolling.

Spirit Airlines is totally a different kettle of fish from Wizz. I don't like that comparison at all. The required average ticket price to meet their costs is/was roughly 2.5 times higher (Mostly associated with a strongly unionised work force). They operated in a mature low growth market and had load factors around 70%.

You simply cannot compare European and US Airlines.

We should be down to around 34 grounded Aircraft soon, significantly below the 60 we started with therefore movement is in the right direction.

I take your points but the analysts seem to have a worst case scenario of a €60m loss this year after 2 profitable years. In my view Wizz will ride this year out and be very profitable from coming years.

As for having a long term view, I think it's the only way that a retail investor can have success.

Yeslam

"B777Captain, I was just wondering if lower CO2 emission/ PAX/ km (same load factor, same route structure) is in direct proportion with lower fuel burn. If so it seems WIZZ starting to benefit from it's NEO engines quite substantially."

I would say definitely. The Max 10 will provide similar savings for Ryanair but they don't have any yet and will only have 300 in 2034, while at that time Wizz should be at around 500× A321-NEO's.

I have to say another thing regarding today's figures and every traffic data number. I would be shocked if the institutional traders didn't know this number ahead of time. It's almost open source information.

If I travel as staff, I go onto my staff traveller app, I put in a request to a staff member from the Airline I'll travel with for Traffic data in order for me to assess my chance to get on that flight. I can know exactly the load factor on every flight on a daily basis.

Hello Yeslam

What do you want me to answer?

The Airline that I work for in the Middle East does not count emissions, so I'm not very familiar with how that works.

Regarding short sectors then of course the more time an Aircraft spends at low Altitudes and high thrust settings, the more fuel and the more engine life it eats. Therefore long sectors cost less per km. I know that you know that.