Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

John

You are a Troll. I try to give you the benefit of the doubt. But you clearly say things designed to incite a reaction. That is trolling.

As for viewing the opinions of institutional analysts above an enthusiastic private investor like Yeslam. You'd think that it was a "no-brainer" that the institutional investors would provide better information. They have access to very advanced data based on up to the minute seat costs and knowledge of the Algorithm that each Airline uses to price its seats. They have all the data regarding FX and current jet fuel prices, along with tax experts who can provide that information.

Having said all that; when you listen to the questions by analysts during earnings calls, you are sadly disappointed. Some of these guys ask questions that you'd expect from a 10 year old child, not someone with detailed information of the Airline industry and up to date knowledge of a lot of data. Add to that, a lot of them clearly haven't listened to anything Varadi or Malin have said.

Analysts like Lobbenberg are good and they clearly speak regularly to the management.

Overall, I'm much more interested in what Yeslam has to say than I am in what a lot of the analysts say. He understands and presents well the information that he does have available to him.

I'm not sure but I think that Yeslam is also in the business and has an affiliation of some kind with Wizz. Lucas certainly does.

John

We understand your argument when it comes to EZJ, JET2, and IAG but those companies are mature in terms of the profits they can produce. I accept that there'll be continued very slow growth, all 3 are extremely exposed to the UK. UK = Increasing taxes and slow passenger growth numbers (3% currently).

Wizz Air offers a completely different investment. A very cheap share price, exposure to one of the highest growth markets in the World, the best order book in Europe, experienced management etc. It is a turnaround story, of course, but the turnaround will come.

John

I still think that there's a reasonable chance of hitting Bernstein's target by the end of C26.

Anon

I would spin it as good news, given the current situation.

The company is giving priority to profitability and very importantly to getting its investment grade credit ratings back. It needs investment grade debt to change its ownership model away from Sale/Leaseback and back to owning the Aircraft.

The introduction of new Aircraft is an expensive process. This cost along with the groundings and the CEO retirements should be gone between 2028 and 2030. That gives the 3 years of running the A321-NEO's on mature and well densified routes- meaning at that point the company should be very profitable.

You have to be long term on this investment. It's the Airline industry. MOL is talking about what he's expecting from 2034, not where he hopes the share price will be next Tuesday.

Stan

I agree that Wizz is totally undervalued.

Ryanair own their own Aircraft. That makes for the high valuation.

Tawse

As for why it has not Been a takeover target. My guess is that the major shareholder- Indigo Partners don't want to sell at the price that would be offered under the current circumstances.

To successfully takeover Wizz, you'd pretty much need to agree the takeover with Indigo first.

Tawse

I am a long term holder. I don't have a negative long term view at all. I think that going 3 to 7 years ahead this company looks very good. The management recently announced plans to slow growth and generate a very profitable end to the decade. That will allow them to get their investment grade Debt rating back which in turn will allow them to buy their own Aircraft rather than follow the sale/Leaseback model.

As I have said often before I think that the share price hits £42 in 2028 and £60- £80 in 2030.

The recent statement from Morgan Stanley pretty well sums up the negative hypothesis. In this case I would expect earnings below consensus on November 13th. Then due to continued high costs associated with what I described in my previous post, the company makes an operating loss for F26. This in my view could on a temporary basis next summer push the share price back below £10. To me that would be a buying opportunity.

This is the most pessimistic scenario and not what I expect.

I have 2 hypotheses for the short term. I'll give the optimistic one.

November 13th comes in with a operating profit of €300m. Slightly above consensus. We push into Christmas with some good share price growth.

In the New Year, Institutional Traders who are working on an annual bonus scheme look at Wizz, they consider the following:

A lot of upcoming costs have been channeled into F26:

1. 50 New Aircraft.

2. 20 CEO retirements.

3. Closure of Abu Dhabi

4. Return of approximately 12 Grounded Aircraft to the line.

So they look beyond F26 to H127. They see a completely undervalued company as profits rise and costs sink. We push up towards £20 for Summer 26.

Maybe we hit the Bernstein target by the end of C26.

Like I said, that's the optimistic scenario.

Stan

Very good. I love reading these calculated forecasts.

I only look at Barclays and Bernstein.

Based on listening to questions during the earnings calls.

I love your responses. Thanks Yeslam. I agree, there's nothing else and Wizz are first to get company experience on this technology. It should be an advantage in the future.

Maybe Lucas can answer that as well?

Yeslam

Very interesting video. What is your view? Are these new engines worth the extra maintenance?

Botbot

If you're invested in Wizz, just keep believing. Don't let day to day prices concern you. Wizz will be either the top LCC in Europe or second in the 2030's. It's not going out of business. Wizz has the best Aircraft order book in Europe. Eastern European passenger traffic is expanding fast. Keep buying a few more shares every month.

Yeslam

Having said that about a one off tax, if that is the direct cause of operating profit not being in growth then investors will see through that. I presume.

Taut

I'm not sure that you should use Ryanair as a bell weather for Wizz at the moment. There are company specific reasons that Ryanair SP is moving up at the moment:

1. A little more positivity about Boeing achieving its delivery of new Aircraft.

2. Yields rising from a poor summer 2024. This is due to a fight between MOL and the online booking agents in 2024. In 2025 he restarted using the agents which increased the yields back again by about 6%.

Wizz is an exciting long term project with many new routes being initiated now that will deliver in the coming years.

Yeslam

That would have you at €320m and Bernstein at €311m.

Yeslam

I think that your calculations are amazing. I just want to check if your calculations include the tax bill that will come out of H1 operating profits according to Deutsche bank. I understand that you're directly calculating net profit but I think that it's a one off tax bill needs to be considered. I think that it's €98m. That'll bring your calculations closer to Bernstein.

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