Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

That was meant to be "peace".

I don't have the excuse that this is my second language... grrr

Let's hope for piece in Ukraine next. I'm optimistic now. Within 2 years.

John

I would say that Yeslam is totally correct. He knows his stuff. You need your ducks in a row before you enter in to a discussion with him.

Barclays remain Overweight Wizz.

Overweight:

"Stock Rating

Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon."

Expected to outperform the rest of the industry over the next 12 months. Lobbenberg is , in my view, the most knowledgeable and accurate Airline Analyst currently covering Wizz.

John

Experience is also a wonderful tool.

Stock investment for retail investors is long term. We don't have the tools to make it short term in the way the institutions do.

John

I followed a share a few years ago which I lost money on over a period of a couple of years. In the end I sold at a loss. Exactly what Taut will probably do. I look back now and realise that if I'd just kept on averaging in and holding said stock for a further 5 years, I would have made an amazing profit. I'm not doing that again with Wizz. Especially since this is company with a business model that I believe in and have some understanding.

I think that there are 3 turning points coming for Wizz, all of which will drive the stock higher, timing each turning point for me is impossible.

1. Year over year operational profit growth (probably next November, but I don't know).

2. Return of grounded Aircraft and removal of CEO powered Aircraft.

3. Return of investment grade Debt.

2 and 3 are probably more predictable in the end.

John

I have nothing against Easyjet. It's a retired fella's investment. It'll deliver you 12% per year one way or another over time. There won't be any growth though. Too focused on the stagnating UK.

I'm preparing for that 35% drop. If it happens I will average down some more.

Good luck with getting out at 10 year low of one of the best Airlines in Europe. Certainly with the best order book and the fastest growing market.

Gentlemen

I am very happy with my position in this share. It's not an over-valued, high cost Easyjet (of 2014 or whatever). It's an extraordinarily cheap stock whose costs are set to plummet when the current reorganisation is complete.

I will keep averaging in every month. You have to have at least a 3 year time horizon on Wizz. Nothing has changed.

It maybe a response to the slower rate of return of the grounded Aircraft. I think that we're probably a further 6 months behind the thinking of 6 months ago.

I'm mid to long term optimistic but the timeline is going to change.

John

You're MOL's mouthpiece on this forum. MOL had a lot of good luck in the 1990's that got him ahead of other Airlines. He's got the gift of the gab in English. Unfortunately English is Varadi's second language.

I think that Varadi has been as good a CEO as MOL.

Just got to get the company organised with the A321-NEO's as the soul Aircraft.

The problem is, we don't know if the share price is in a coma. We need operational profit growth.

Robbren

MOL has clearly rattled some cages which was exactly his intention.

If you listen to his press conferences, he's always trying to rattle cages.

Another thought that I had. I know MOL was making a big deal about wizz Airs CASK being 77% more than Ryanair. But by my guesstimated calculations, once the fleet is all A321-NEO's the CASK difference between the two companies will be less than 10%. At that point, I would suggest that success will be more product related than cost related.

Obviously, that's a long way down the road.

Robbren

I agree but most of that Ryanair rise is still a result of post covid recovery. The current PE is 13. That represents about 8% per year to shareholders. Growth at Ryanair is pretty limited probably not more than 5% CAGR.

Clearly over the last 2 years Ryanair investors would have done hugely better.

From where we are now Wizz Air is somewhat speculative but the rewards will be significant should everything go as expected.

I agree that when I first invested in Wizz, I expected the engine issue to be resolved in not more than 18 months. But I've always had a long term view.

Madmat

Unfortunately it's not particularly good news. Most of the 22 that have returned to service have returned because Wizz scoured the World and found spare engines. I don't think that that is a pathway for the any of the 38 currently grounded. I also think that we were expecting only 32 grounded aircraft at this stage. We're 6 months behind now. From start to finish will probably be 5 years, which is what Varadi said last year.

Robbren

I don't really see Ryanair as flourishing. I'm certainly still happier with my money invested in Wizz Air.

If Ryanair had a fleet of 600 737Max's with 300 on order that they could be sure of timely delivery then they would be unbeatable.

But they don't. They have 400 very old B737-800's and 200 737Max's which are from the batch that were of debatable quality. They are now confident of delivery of more in 2027, but not certain.

Wizz are very likely to have 210 operating A321-NEO's by Christmas 2027. 80% of the total fleet. Those Aircraft are 40% more efficient than the 400 old Ryanair Aircraft.

I'm averaging in every month. I should have my average below £18 in the next few months. That would be a personal PE of 3 when Wizz is recovered.

John

I know that Ryanair has gone in one direction for a long time and if I could buy it on the super cheap, like Wizz, I would. But I believe in Wizz, the same as Ryanair. Wizz is on a future PE of 2. Ryanair's PE is high and includes a lot of book value from owning it's Aircraft. Ryanair, like Easyjet is a retired fella's stock.

Another point though, Varadi has also been a major winner. Just count the number of European Airlines that have gone out of business since Wizz was formed in 2004.

John

I've followed MOL since 1997. I know his history. He put Virgin Express out of business in Brussels with his operation in Charleroi. I knew the CEO of Virgin Express. He hated MOL's business practices.

Whatever Boeing deliver. Wizz have a massive place in the market. There are insufficient Aircraft for the growth in Italy and Eastern Europe.

John

I don't disagree. I've been buying some silver (ETF's).

Silver and Wizz with a 7 year time frame.