Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Bobbins:

"I see the potential downside here at about£9.50, and the upside at £20 plus. That makes it a buy/hold for me."

My view on this is that there isn't a £20 target price, unless your target is get 25% of the issues that Wizz have solved and then get out.

There are two ways this company goes, insolvency or success. In my view success is by far the most likely (not 100% though). To me, success is a company with 300× A321-NEO's, all CEO's gone, and investment grade Debt.

300 successful NEO's will turn a net profit of around £750m. If the price target is £20 (market cap. Approx £2.1B) then that's a PE of less than 3. Why would we be targeting a PE of less than 3?

A company with 10% CAGR should have a minimum PE of 10.

So in my view over the next 3-4 years you've got £40+ or 0 (or approaching 0, they have cash to keep them afloat for a long time).

Spanish John

Yes I get too much moaning, so I've been disabling the ad blocker. I will try not to. Thanks.

Taut

Yeslam is in touch with these things much, much more than I am. What I understand is that we're receiving a lot of new Aircraft this year. 50 in total for F26 (I understand). I think that we've received 19 already, therefore 31 to come. On top of that, I think that we're getting roughly 1 of the grounded GTF Aircraft back per month. So capacity will inevitably grow this year.

I think that the difference between the wholesale price that we're paying for the new Aircraft and the retail price that we sell them to the leasing companies has become quite significant. This will show up in the F26 bottom line. Even if the institutional investors think that it's not "quality profit".

Thanks SpanishJohn

I have tried ad blocker but this website won't let me post with it on. It maybe from my location.

Taut

I see what you mean but normally you don't make a comparison between September and August because August will always be a busier month. The important comparison is between this September and last September. You're right that grounding 12 Aircraft on 1st September 2025 reduced our capacity.

Yeslam

Keep those posts coming. I get more from you than I can even hope to get from Chatgpt.

Did it again.

Where we'll be when the Airline normalises.

Taut

I don't understand what you mean? It was an 8.8% rise in passenger numbers wasn't it?

Lee

My take is that these numbers will represent revenue growth. As far as costs are concerned, I take what Varadi said in June, he said that the €200m compensation from P&W only represents a third of the actual costs. This means that we need to add €400m to our net profit (- some tax) to get a figure that'll represent where we'll be when

John

Don't make me laugh. You write one message when you're clearly drunk. Then the next when you've sobered up. What do I have to reply to?

To be fair. I think John will probably have a severe headache tomorrow morning.

Codswallop John. Just because you have a poor record of investment in Airlines.

Actually the history of the Wizz share price is that when it moves, it moves a long way fast. 2015-2018 £11-£38, 2020-2021 £15 - £53, 2022-2023 £15-£32.

Do some simple arithmetic and you'll find that if the Airline normalises, as we expect, the share price will be well above £40 with it's current fleet.

Sorry. Did it again. It's the moving ads and my fat fingers.

Anyway. Today it's probably all about the threat of a government shutdown in the US. 🙄

As one of our friends on this forum says, we have to look at the Macro. I think that today maybe an example of that. I think all

Taut

That's a pretty reasonable assessment.

Gives us a good go at buying more at a low price.

Load factor up

Pax number flat

I don't believe that JP Morgan have a particularly credible knowledge of what's going on in European Airlines. Reading all the Analyst statements that I can get hold of and listening to the Analyst questions during the earnings calls, the only Analyst that I have any faith in regarding their actual knowledge of the European Airline Industry is Lobbenberg of Barclays. Bernstein are good as well, the remainder are just accountants. Lobbenberg still has his target price set at £15.

It looks like Ryanair have handed Wizz some good, mature destinations to operate some of their 50×new A321-NEO's. Thank you to MOL.

MOL also said in his news conference last week that he probably would not be going back to Israel (it doesn't depend on politics, it depends on being allowed to use the low cost terminal at a discounted rate). So with luck, Wizz should have a low cost monopoly on that market.

Taut

The vast majority of the big investors in Wizz are long not short.

I think that Wizz is a good hedge for institutions against increased tensions in Eastern Europe or European recession. Hedge funds will also short a company if they're long in another company in the same industry, then they simply pocket the difference in movement between the two with less risk.

Taut. Yeslam and Lucas know this stuff very well but I think you've got:

36 grounded GTF Powdered metal

12 Grounded Abu Dhabi Aircraft

1 Hard Landing in Prague ( I know, this is infuriating especially since it was done in perfect weather)

Taut. I think you're right about the load factor for September being down due to closure of Abu Dhabi. And also as Yeslam pointed out, there are currently 50 grounded Aircraft, it's not just the Aircraft with the GTF powdered metal issue. So this is clearly a costly period. Most shareholders are in for the short term.

A very long time ago, I worked for a boss call Phillip Meeson. We used to regularly speak to him. When the share price was low, he told us that he never looked at the share price, it was no reflection on the company. He was CEO and very large shareholder of what became Jet2.

I follow what he said. I don't consider anything other than the company is cheap, so it's worth buying.

You can read a lot into what Michael O'Leary says. The only competitor that he really talks about is Wizz, that's because Wizz is the only long term threat. If he saw Wizz as becoming insolvent he'd have "Bye Bye Wizz" written on his Aircraft.