Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Thanks Stan

Hopefully that'll give me a chance to get my average down to £17.50. A third of the 5 year high.

Thanks Robbren.

I'm not negative at all. The Mid term is extraordinarily positive.

MOL said that he hopes to receive 15 B737Max10 Aircraft in spring 2027 ( Well at that point we'll have 222 A321-NEO'S, Airbus equivalent). He added that these Aircraft are 40% more efficient than the B737-800. That suggests that going into summer 2027, we'll have the most cost effective fleet in Europe and be way ahead of Ryanair.

I'm just watching MOL's press conference from last week. Currently halfway through.

He's extremely optimistic about passenger growth in Europe, especially the CEE. He said that it was exponential (a little exaggeration, I think).

I think he said that Wizz Air's costs are 77% more than Ryanair Currently. To me that just reflects how expensive the grounding and CEO retirements are. Once these issues are done our costs will be so much less.

The silence is deafening on this thread this morning.

I bought some more at £11.76.

Is there any news out there?

It's Payday tomorrow. So I will be buying my next chunk.

I think that expanding Rome is an excellent idea because Rome is a superb intercontinental gateway that does not suffer the ridiculous passenger taxes now seen in the UK. For example travelling from LHR to my City in the middle East in business class attracts £269 in taxes and charges. From Rome to the same destination is €45 in taxes and charges. It's a huge difference. UK Airline taxes are now criminal in my view.

The S&P 500 is extremely risky right now. It's average trailing PE is above 30. The average profit growth from after Covid (2022) to now is 5.3%(a lot of that was covid recovery). And US is likely to go into recession.

I remember during 2009, typical PE's were 7. The S&P 500 has a long way to fall when it happens.

I feel much safer in Wizz.

As usual Yeslam, your posts are fantastic.

I am also invested in Wizz because it's the only industry that I have any experience or understanding.

I am disappointed that you don't believe in the £80 to £120 level over the long term.

My view is that the 18.9% CAGR to 2028 which analysts put out this summer should really just reflect the profit and share price growth until we get back to normalisation.

From 2028 onwards, we should have a fleet of 300 NEO's growing at 10% per year.

Prior to Covid, Wizz Air's fleet were making a net profit of €3m per Aircraft- Aircraft that had an average capacity of around 180. With a capacity of 239, you'd expect a higher net profit.

Assuming only £2.5m per Aircraft, and the 2028 fleet of 300 Aircraft, you get a profit of £750m.

£750m profit on average Airline PE of 8.5= £6.4B market cap.

With a forecast CAGR of 10%, the PE should be 10. This case market cap= £7.5B

I think that there will be a significant share buy back at some point as well.

I also think that as time goes on there'll be a significant shortage of the modern Aircraft which Wizz has. Therefore yields will rise significantly.

Yeslam

Thanks for that. The only information I have really is what's been said at the recent earnings calls. I understand that the situation is very dynamic and that I'm working on out of date info. Keep us updated. Thanks again.

I went for 11 NEO deliveries so far in F26 because one of the leasing companies publicly announced the recent acquisition of 11 NEO's that had been leased back to Wizz. 19 sounds good.

Https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/drone-disruption-unlikely-hit-profitability-ryanair-boss-says-2025-09-25/

Drones will only effect Airlines if flown in the close vicinity of Airports. They will not effect enroute Airspace. This weekends Cyberattacks had a minimal effect. They were a nuisance. Michael O'Leary said that these attacks will not effect Airline profitability. He's right.

I'm not going down that road. If there's a war between NATO and Russia then all bets are off with all stocks, not just Wizz.

Yes. It is in a range, probably between £9.70 and £17. In my view, it'll be in this range until operating profit rises year on year- then the company has it's investment grade credit rating returned.

Thanks Taut

What I think you miss is all the Sale/Leaseback that we'll get this year. So I think:

H1 (Deusche bank): +€240m

F2 (Winter loss, including introduction of 30 new Aircraft to new routes): -€200m

39× Sale/Leaseback: +€200m

Retiring 10×CEO: -€40M

Excluding Fuel, FX and tax variables: my guess €200m net profit.

I cannot possibly justify £13 in 2 weeks (I had a tongue in my cheek). But it probably will be anyway. Judging by the volatility.

Taut

Just give me the rough calculation that you make to justify your opinion that Wizz will not make a net profit this year. Please.

Taut

In a couple of weeks time when the price is £13 again, you'll be happy. It is a Rollercoaster.

The plan is clear. The target is that it all comes together for 2028.

They did say during the earnings call in June that 20 CEO's would be returned to Lessors this year. 19 were returned last year. This is out of 75, I think, therefore probably another couple of years to go after this year to remove the lot. I understand that this process is high cost, probably with D checks done on each of the Aircraft before they're returned.

Yeslam

That's Great information. Thanks very much. It's very difficult to find that kind of info from other sources.

Yeslam or Lucas

During the F25 Earnings call, management said that at the end of H1 26, they expected to be down to 32 Aircraft grounded due to the GTF issue. Do either of you Gentlemen know where we stand on that, was it an accurate forecast?