Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

SG2025

"Also, I don't understand why Wizz can not segregate grounding costs separately as ongoing operations costs !!?? "

That to me is a very good point. That's a question that needs to be answered at the next earnings call.

Regarding what P&W may do to speed up the return of grounded Aircraft, we actually don't know. Varadi alluded to the fact that something would happen when signing the latest deal with P&W, but no further information has been provided.

The timeline is now defined by the CFO's recent speech stating that he expects the GTF issue to be resolved by the end of Calendar 2027 (but, he said, it depends on P&W).

SG2025

There is nothing new. It's just a further clarification for us. In fact since this article was formulated, I think that the timeline for the groundings has probably slipped by 6 months.

Thanks a lot Robbren

The article is very conservative in my view, as good journalists have to be. It basically reiterates everything that the optimists on this forum have been saying for the last 6+ months. Wizz will be a fantastic medium term investment.

Thanks Robbren. Much appreciated.

Was there more?

Stan

I didn't read the article. I couldn't, I guess my location wouldn't let me. But another factor increasing the Aircraft shortage is retirements, expected to be 1100 per year for the next 10 years. On top of that, rapid advances in engine technology mean that only the newest Aircraft are sufficiently competitive for the low cost market.

Stan

There are definitely barriers to entry. You need Saudi PIF pockets to start a successful Airline now. Even then you've got to hope that you can get hold of Aircraft.

Stan

MOL Has spent his entire career lashing out at his opponents. He hates Pilots. We're expensive, lazy prima donna's. There's a lot of good information in what MOL says but also a lot that needs to be disregarded.

I don't think that John is short Wizz. He wouldn't be on this forum if he wasn't either invested or interested in being invested. Ryanair is a safe investment, it's like putting your money into a savings account. With Ryanair most of what you're buying is Aircraft and not a business. That's why the PE is high.

John

Thanks for that. I seem to be having some issues with my spelling at the moment. I'll be generous to myself and put it down to age.

John

I'll wager you a Kruggerand against my Britannia that if you buy £50 of RYR on Monday and I buy £50 of Wizz. In 2 years time my £50 will have done much better than yours.

Taut

Watch MOL. He suggests that if he could get the Aircraft, he can double passenger numbers in less than 10 years. That is not a Saturated market:

https://share.google/F761EJL7hR7qTVEyg

It's a Market short of Aircraft.

Taut

How do you judge that the European market is Saturated? I operate flights year after year out of European Airports, with more and more Aircraft. Our load factors go up every year. And still I think statistically less than 2% of people fly regularly. And in Eastern Europe only a third fly regularly compared to Western Europe. Growth potential is phenomenal.

There are pockets of near saturation. UK is probably the best example. But still there's growth.

I still think that they are saving up a lot of future profitability because their accounts show full depreciation for the grounded Aircraft Each year. But without pressurisation cycles the actual depreciation will be much less.

Sorry!!

I suspect that the calculations were similar to your previous calculations that exclude Sale/Leaseback earnings. With Sale/Leaseback the profitability has to be at least €200m.

Sale/Leaseback may not be liked by Analysts but it's the same profit that a shop makes. You buy for a lower price than you sell.

Taut

I'm not sure how Bernstein came up with the 0 earnings for F26. It was a very brief statement. I suspect that the calculations w

Excellent Yeslam. Thanks.

Keep up the good work. We seem to have lost Lucas.

Yeslam

Great work from you. Much appreciated.

I actually think that a fully functioning Wizz with all CEO's retired will roughly match RYR for costs. Because leasing costs are high-compare that to the Aircraft ownership of RYR; you need the 40% added efficiency of the A321NEO's Competing against RYR's B737-800's.

Yeslam. Try this link. MOL mentions the 77% towards the beginning of this press conference.

Source: YouTube https://share.google/F761EJL7hR7qTVEyg

I don't think that it's illegal. I think this is a standard procedure of hedge funds. They just want to pocket the difference between the two companies.

Garonne

With the timeline for GTF engine resolution moving backwards, forecast share prices for next summer are certainly going to be downgraded. As things stand, as I understand it, we'll have 6 fewer A321-NEO's next summer. Unfortunately, that's a downgrade.

Stan

That is exactly my point. If you're a long term holder, there's a 1 in a million chance of buying at the bottom. There's a high chance that you'll ride losses for a couple of years.

In the 1990's, you could quite reasonably set a stop loss of 20% below your buying price. Roll on to 2025, that doesn't make sense any more because of the huge level of retail margin trade. One minor piece of bad news sets off a margin call chain, dragging a good share down 50% or more.

My young colleagues don't trade anything at less than 3×.