Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Stille

Yes definitely Monday or Tuesday. I would expect Monday.

Yeslam

Phenomenal

I'd invest in Wizz just from listening to you.

I've never had that before. Unbelievable luck. Shame I bought so little.

I bought some more. I thought that I'd grab a little at below £11.

Stan

I think Q3 and Q4 are expected to be loss making. The reasons:

1. Introduction of 50 new Aircraft (means flying loss making loads until the route operated matures).

2. Continued retirement of CEO powered Aircraft. This is expensive because they have to be returned in a certain condition with required maintenance checks completed.

3. Ongoing costs associated with groundings.

4. Winter is normally not profitable.

But how unprofitable Q3 and Q4 will be is pure guess work. Variables include

1. FX

2. Fuel

3. Yields

4. Load factors

Etc

Etc

So presumably that €2.48 earnings per share in 2026 means F27. Therefore Bernstein is forecasting a net operating profit of €256m for F27. I don't think that's unreasonable and with profit growth like that, a share price of £30 isn't unreasonable.

Bernstein is always the most optimistic but they'll be right at some point when Wizz manage to get their challenges under control.

Robbren

That's it. Thanks a lot.

Thanks Robbren

I was thinking that there was a statement which showed very small earnings per share for F26 but then a significant improvement for F27.

I've been looking, I can't find it.

Has anyone got a link for the latest Bernstein statement? Thanks.

Taut

Just to add of course, next summer Wizz will have 50 new A321-NEO's(delivered during F25). They should make a lot of additional operating profit.

taut

you said "same for 2027".

i don't think that's right. i think that closure of abu dhabi is one off and will cost about €70m. and the grounded aircraft numbered about 40 for summer 2025- cost around €400m in depreciation; summer 2026 will see about 30 grounded- cost in depreciation around €300m.

totally " back of a *** packet" calculation- we should see a minimum of a €170m improvement in operating profit for f27. that's the turning point.

there are further cost savings for f27 e.g 20 fewer ceo powered aircraft.

Taut

Thanks for the post. I still think that the negative earnings discussed by Morgan Stanley exclude the Sale/Leaseback. So I think that the actual net profit will be around the same as F25. That is what I think.

Regarding management decisions. There probably have been mistakes made but if this company lost Varadi as it's CEO (Chief Exec), that would be a disaster. Varadi knows the Airline industry in Eastern Europe better than anyone else. Varadi has a history of success when many, many other Airlines have come along and then failed. Wizz Air's business model is correct. Wizz does not have overwhelming debt. Leasing Aircraft in the Airline industry is normal. I fly leased Aircraft all of the time.

I understand that you have a different time frame from me. I'm completely happy to wait another 5 years for good results and I will average in every month (or nearly).

I do expect the turn to come (positive operational profit growth) before the end of next calendar year. Then I would expect a dramatic improvement in share price.

Robbren

Yes I think it will turn again soon but maybe for the wrong reasons. Wizz seems to go a long way into oversold territory and then take a large technical bounce on a little good news.

The real turn comes with:

1. Operational profit growth.

2. Return of investment grade Debt rating.

To get these 2 you need to be very patient because the grounded Aircraft need to be largely returned to line operations and then they need a summer to deliver some good profits.

In time this will be a very good investment.

I think that the broker updates are full of nonsense. Yes they're nicely written, very professional etc. But I was reading an update on Ryanair the other day (I can't remember which broker), it was upgrading Ryanair from hold to buy (or something similar) and adding to the forecast share price. Then it said that this was because we expect Ryanair to grow by X amount of passengers in 2026 and another X amount in 2027.

Well the broker hasn't any idea if this is possible or not, it's a total guess based on the unreliable hopes of Boeing and of MOL. The new Aircraft that Ryanair hopes to receive in 2027 are not even certified yet. And the 400 older Aircraft are coming up for major structural maintenance checks, which they may or may not pass, nobody knows until they get the boroscope on the metal.

In case some guys don't realise, you can not grow passenger numbers without a growing fleet of Aircraft.

There was no disclaimer from the above broker to suggest that what they wrote was likely to be inaccurate.

Thanks Yeslam. Please keep up the good work.

John

I'm not expecting people to believe me or not believe me. Everything I post is simply what I think at that moment.

John

I totally believe in the £42 share price. I said summer 2028, I guess that's pushed back to Christmas 2028.

In the short term I didn't envisage any particular share price. I only envisage averaging down as long as the share price is below my average. I'm hoping that I can get my average to a £16 handle by next summer now.

I think that when operational profit growth comes in, the share price will move upwards aggressively.

I enjoy posting on this forum. I'm not at all concerned by the day to day share price. I totally believe that Varadi knows what he's doing. I'm sure he's working hard with Airbus and P&W to quickly regain Wizz Air's standing.

You make me laugh John...

Capdailbrit

Russia is already using all of it's Cruise missile capability to attack Ukraine.

Capdailbrit

That's not really a true statement. Currently most flights operating from the Middle East to the United States or the UK, flights from North West Europe to Asia, along with hundreds of intra-European flights, all use this Airspace. If it was closed, that would be a massive issue, Political and economic. This is the point that we'd be at the brink of World War 3.

I'm not saying that it can't happen but currently it's very unlikely.