Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

OTCD. At last a post that spells it out perfectly.

Spells what out perfectly? If the World goes into recession all stocks will go down? If interest rates rise significantly, stocks will go down?

This is a company specific forum. If Wizz gets its business model right, then it will ride out the above. The issues discussed are key to the business model. Getting the GTF issue resolved. Adapting the Aircraft ownership system to be cost effective. Removing the older less efficient Aircraft from the fleet. Basing Aircraft at the most profitable locations. These are the important issues.

Both Ryanair and Wizz survived Oil Prices in 2007 of $147 (probably around $250 today). If the business model is right survival is assured.

Stay in Wizz Taut. If you leave, you'll look back in 10 years and regret it.

That's my opinion of course.

In my opinion Varadi is doing exactly the right thing for Wizz in the long term. It's short term pain for long term gain. He's turning Wizz in to a lean mean money making Machine like Ryanair was.

Front loading costs:

- A320CEO's returned to lessors (expensive maintenance required)

- leaving the base at Abu Dhabi

- Changing ownership model away from Sale and Leaseback (no front end cash)

- Returning GTF grounded Aircraft to service

From 2028 onwards Wizz Air will reap the rewards.

Short term, analysts don't like it.

OTCD

I Don't really agree. I think that the macroeconomics create volatility (great for trading) but as a long term investor, I'm not concerned with volatility. Ryanair rode out 9/11, the global financial crisis, Covid- and yes, those events created huge volatility but because the business model was good it went on and on producing cash for its investors.

The Airline industry is a sure thing. It will still be here in 10 years time, 20 years time, 30 years time and most likely both Wizz Air and Ryanair will be here generating cash throughout. The road will always be rocky. I don't stay awake at night worrying that Trump might say something and that Wizz might fall £2. For me while I'm lucky enough to be working, it's another cheap opportunity to buy on Pay day.

Article relating to Gliders

https://airinsight.com/airbus-gliders-linit-1h-2025-performance/

My guess is that there are not sufficient engines for Aircraft coming off the Airbus production line, so Wizz are prioritising engines for the NEO. XLR's are probably parked at Toulouse without engines. This though, I think, is an Airbus problem.

The Airbys CEO recently said that his company is now producing gliders (meaning the airframes were finished but there were no ready engines).

They are still operating G-XLRA today from LGW to JED

Taut

I think that the news article you posted is out of date. I understand that Wizz has been operating the XLR on the LGW-JED route.

Lucas

Does that include the 2 XLR'S currently operating Jeddah and Medina from LGW?

That's not good news.

I'm a little concerned that Hot&Harsh will continue to be an issue in Israel. Egyptair had to sell all of their GTF powered A220's. These engines cannot cope with dust and sand, they're fine in Europe.

Lucas

We should be down to 32 Aircraft Grounded by the end of the year. Down from 41 grounded at the beginning of the summer. Given the talk of a new deal between Wizz and P&W, Is there a chance that we can see 2 Aircraft per month returned to the line during 2026?

If that happened, it would likely see full normal operations for Summer 2027.

Johnbri

He definitely ordered the wrong Aircraft. I think MOL has pretty well said it. He's been looking at ordering the C919 in the future. That is a non-starter.

He said the other day that he's optimistic but not confident of receiving his B737max-10's in 2027 and if he doesn't, the Airline will not expand in 2027.

MOL wanted and expected Ryanair to be an 800 Aircraft Airline by 2030. Now as a result of ordering Boeing, it's likely to be 650 at best.

I'm not ramping. I'm stating facts as I see them. I don't care what the share price is in the short term.

Taut

Very Sorry!! Another point

The reason Ryanair are able to say "right we're pulling out of Spain " or "we're pulling out of Denmark " or " we're pulling out of Germany ", is Exactly because the market is not Saturated. MOL has many options on where to put his Aeroplanes in order to make a profit.

Taut

There's only one CEO in Europe who knows the Airline industry as well as Varadi, that's of course Michael O'Leary. But Michael O'Leary made the biggest mistake of his life after Covid, he ordered the wrong Aircraft. He ordered Boeing instead of Airbus.

I work for an Airline that expected to receive it's new B777's in 2018. Now we're hopeful that we'll receive them in 2027. Boeing are a disaster and it won't change soon.

Taut

Let me continue, I posted by mistake:

You don't want to leave at a loss. Barring another black Swan event, you won't. I bought in much higher than you in the first place and I just keep averaging in every month. I hope to have an average of £18 by Christmas.

A lot of commentators say that AI is in a bubble. In 1997, I started buying the tech stocks of that era. Up to 2001, I made a lot of money. But like you, my psychology was that I didn't want to leave until we returned to the high, and the crash came quickly, the Nasdaq went from 5000 to 1000. I lost everything. If I'd have just bought Ryanair in 1999 and held it to 2005, I would have more than quadrupled my money.

- You're next point. Not enough transparency. I don't know the answer to this. What did Varadi actually know himself when he appeared to mislead investors on costs? We don't know. What we do know is that Varadi started an East European LCC in 2003 and with his leadership, by 2019 it was incredibly successful. Generating a net profit of €3m/Aircraft. In the meantime, off the top of my head, the following Airlines went bankrupt:

Globespan

Monarch

Air Berlin

Germania

Flybmi

Thomas cook Airlines

All Low cost carriers that could have been as successful as Wizz. But Wizz, because of Varadi, survived and thrived. Varadi still wants his £100m bonus at some point. That means a 9× increase from the current share price. Granted that's at least 7 years away now.

Taut. You don't have too much invested in Wizz. You have too little. And you need more patience.

Taut

Thanks a lot 👍

My rebuttal:

- Euro Market Saturated:

According to Ryanair, their average break even is €38 revenue per passenger, with an actual revenue F25 of €46. If you look at ticket prices and run an average, this is currently achievable.

The next point, which I've made too much, but you have to understand: There are not enough new Aircraft being produced to meet demand. In 2025 European Airlines operate 7500 Aircraft. Of which 280 are ready to be scrapped, Boeing and Airbus will deliver to Europe 130 Aircraft (these are very approximate figures but show a big shortfall/decline in Aircraft). At the same time passenger numbers in Eastern Europe are growing at 8-10%/Yr and in Western Europe at about 5%.

- As for future earnings and revenue. It's difficult but I think that you can make a reasonably sensible and conservative guess at where we are. Next summer, maybe slightly later now, Wizz will operate 265 Aircraft. Each Aircraft will make around £2m (and this will grow). That's a net profit of £530m. The current market cap. Is £1.36B. Therefore we're looking at a near future PE of 2.6. Compare that with Nvidia at 47. Nvidia needs to be 18× bigger than it is to make the same as Wizz Air's potential profit.

- You say that you don't want to leave at a loss. Barring ano

Taut

If, in the H1 report there's an extremely small gain in operational profit (over the previous year), just sufficient for us to see that the corner is turning but not enough to drive the stock significantly higher; will you sell?

Taut

If War comes to Europe (West of Ukraine), all stocks will see unseen lows.

Try to disregard trading in September, the human element of institutional trading is significantly reduced and that comes back towards the end of October.

JET2 is not a canary in the coal mine for Wizz. They have a significantly different business model. Their UK operation is mostly away from the important London Airports, Wizz has massive advantage with it's Gatwick and Luton bases. The UK only represents a relatively small percentage of Wizz Air's business. And JET2 is very package holiday oriented and that isn't going so well at the moment.

IMO. Nothing has changed for Wizz. The issue in the Airline industry is not insufficient Passengers, it's insufficient Aircraft. The yields and load factors will both go up with time. Wizz will get it's grounded Aircraft back flying and the Share Price WILL go back to £40+.

If Wizz is still £13 at Christmas then you can be concerned.

Taut

Don't worry. You're saying that because it's a down day. Actually I think that the volumes are currently so low that no price movement means anything.

I wish I could just switch off and switch back on for that period between the H1 report and Christmas.

Yeslam

You've made me understand a lot. The more I understand the more bullish I am on Wizz.

Yeslam

Great post. Thanks a lot.