Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

KPA

Don't ask me questions on bonds. I know nothing.

I have put a little pension money into Ishares QLTA. I will build a lot on that in the coming 3 or 4 years before I retire.

Spanish

My plan is 3.5 years more work. I could work another 9 though.

To retire, I think bonds are essential. A financial crisis comes roughly every 10 years and you don't want your investments hit hard when you haven't got a salary to back them up. It's great when you're working, you just average in.

My Pension plan is :

75% AA Bonds

25% Basket of LSE listed Airlines

I think that if I cash in the Airline profit once every 5 years and take the dividend that is offered by IAG, EZJ and Jet2. I should have an income of 7% per year.

Airlines, especially UK, are still very undervalued since Covid.

Wish me luck.

Ok Craigo 👍

I will still be here at £50. Though I will reduce my stake at the point that I think the company is valued fairly.

Craigo

This is a buy for the foreseeable future. I buy a little on every pay check each month.

Below £20..... Bargain basement

£20-£30.........Cheap

£30-£40..........under valued

£40+................About reasonable

At current valuation, 250 aircraft operating normally would produce a minimum profit of £500m. That would make the PE based on today's share price less than 3.

They say that the PEG ratio should be 1. If we assume that Wizz keeps growing at 10% then the PE should stabilise at around 10. That puts company valuation with 250 operating aircraft at £50/share.

That's all very conservative. Prior to Covid each Aircraft was earning €3m. There's no reason for that not to happen again within 3 years.

The good thing about this company is the clarity. The risks being further Black Swan events.

Coffee

Thanks for your reply.

What I think is possible is for one of the Major middle Eastern investment funds to take a 49% stake in Wizz. You have both Qatar Airways who would possibly do that or the Saudi PIF among others.

D9

I've got no idea but in the week before the war started, the share price was £48.

Coffee

Indigo Partners are a Specialist long term low cost Airline investment institution. I'd be surprised if they wanted to sell their stake at a huge discount just because of a short term engine issue.

I would guess that the same logic would apply to Varadi himself and to other institutional investors in Wizz.

Of course, if the price is right. But as we've discussed a lot on this thread, the real value of this company is likely above £40/share.

It'll take a little time for word of mouth to get around that British Muslims can now get to their holiest sites easily, non stop and relatively cheaply. When it does, the load factors on those flights will be 100%. Real Muslims want to go every year if they can (or very often anyway).

Getting a visa in Saudi Arabia is now very easy. This is a big change from before Covid.

Wizz are reducing the size of their A321XLR order, but they can easily use 10 from the UK to Saudi. That's before you start thinking of Europe to India.

I've just looked at 8th August. They're already selling one way tickets to Medina with no Ancillaries for £540.

Https://www.laranews.net/wizz-air-launches-first-ever-direct-london-gatwick-to-medina-route/

This is another Great profit generator IMO.

He also said that propensity to fly in Eastern Europe is still only a third of that in Western Europe so they have a long way to go.

Stan

Great Post

Frank

Varadi did not say that, he said "Wizz Air is not for sale".

It does look positive at the moment:

1. Buyout speculation

2. Return to Growth

3. Less than 2 years before all Aircraft return

4. Varadi on CNN

If Varadi is doing CNN again, that suggests to me that he's getting confident.

Madmat

I missed your post earlier. Glad that I scrolled down to look at it. That estimate for end F28 exceeds my expectations. I'm still at the £42 level. Let's hope those analyst figures are accurate.

Stille

Saudi Arabia will be a Great market for Wizz from the UK with their A321XLR's.

I'm feel quietly confident of a £25 share price for next summer.

Conservatively: 230 operational Aircraft

Profit: £1.8m per Aircraft

PE: 6 times forward Earnings

Share Price: £25

And that is still extremely cheap.

Short term, maybe a little negative because -Load Factor down 1% will also imply yields down somewhat. All associated with Geopolitical events though.

Long term, 6.8% growth in passengers numbers, looks like a Great return to growth to me.

Now let's see what the market says.