Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

According to flightradar 24 this aircraft was already flying again yesterday.

Engine failures happen. Modern Jet Engines are designed to have a failure rate of less than 1 in a million flight hours. With 20,000+ commercial Aircraft flying you'll get at least one a month. Until recently they weren't reported in the media.

Frank

If you're a long term holder, this is a very positive move from Barclays.

It appears to me that this Barclays Analyst is the Mr Sensible in the room.

Even if Wizz grows more slowly, it'll have 265 Aircraft by next summer. When operations go back to normal in 2 years time, that allows for a very significant increase in the share price.

My Calculations:

265 Aircraft

£2m profit each

PE 8

Share price= £42

Frank

The point is that the Barclays Analyst has been negative for a long time with a target price always below the current price. Now he's shifted. His target price is above the current price. He thinks that Wizz is at the turning point. This is very positive. IMHO.

Barclays Analyst. Usually one of out very negative friends has raised his target to £11.

He was the Analyst in the February earnings who was calling for Wizz to leave Abu Dhabi. He got what he wanted, so he upgraded.

Stille, Sapi

It's a trade off isn't it between Ryanair & EZJ old fleet VS Wizz Air high debt.

It's actually very closely balanced in terms of costs, as long as Wizz Air have a fully operational fleet.

In that case, Wizz Air's Market Cap is currently Extraordinarily low.

All IMHO

Sapi & Stille

To continue the discussion regarding Aircraft over 20 years old. So they get to the date when the "D check" is due, if they do the check:

1. Cost Approximately £2m = 1 year profitability for that Aircraft.

2. At high utilisation rates gives the Aircraft an additional 6 years.

3. As an old Aircraft it would have high fuel burn.

4. High Emissions therefore increased Taxation

5. You may uncover something (e.g. corrosion) which permanently grounds the Aircraft.

Conclusion. You're turning the old fleet from a low cost fleet to a high cost fleet.

I think that the reason EZJ & Ryanair may do it would be to maintain market share.

Gary

At the end of June the technicals said that we were going up to £12.

The only thing that I'll believe now is the movement after the earnings report.

Regarding why Airlines want to buy TAP. I think it's because the Portuguese government have put a % of it up for sale. Probably at a good price.

I don't really know though.

EZJ have 80 A319's that are around 20 years old. They need to be replaced pretty much immediately.

You can keep old planes going for a while but the first "D check" after 20 years is usually prohibitively expensive.

Sapi

Forget the average fleet age. It's all about how many Aircraft need to be retired and how quickly the manufacturers can deliver.

Ryanair: 400 retirements in 10 years.

Delivery rate (this year): 26 (and it's not getting better)

Runner

What about shorts holding through the weekend? Aren't they concerned about a weekend tariff deal?

Q1 25 Net income was €1.2m

I would like better than 46% improvement on that.

Wizz Air Abu Dhabi lost €39m last year.

Cut that cancer out and put those Aircraft on profitable routes, that should become an additional €65m in net profit.

There are costs to come first. I understand.

You ask Chat GPT if Ryanair are likely to shrink, it says "Ryanair is unlikely to shrink", it then goes on to justify that by saying Ryanair will receive 57×737Max in 2025.

Well. This is out of date. Ryanair are now expecting 26×737Max deliveries this year. That's half. Ryanair will start shrinking or costs will explode.

Frank

How many of those shorts will close before next Thursday?

Taut:

I don't believe that Varadi (the company) was lying about the cost issues before the F25 earnings call. I think they said things based on the information that they had at the time.

I've read the Fitch downgrade report and all of the analyst views. I don't come away with anything other than we need to have patience.

F25 (excluding covid), probably the worst year in Wizz Air's history, did Revenue exceed costs on the final balance sheet? Now the closure of Abu Dhabi is an effort to improve the Margin. There are plenty of routes in Europe that Wizz can fly successfully. There's a whole new tourist industry where young people fly off for their summer vacations, something that the East Europeans have never done before.

People now are commuting from East to West Europe for work, and at Wizz Air's prices, they can do it weekly. The market is growing fast. It's not going to stop growing any time soon. And forget Ryanair and their 400×737-800 (it's scrap metal).

Taut:

Please read my previous posts regarding Ryanair. I don't believe that Ryanair is a threat to Wizz at all. I think that Wizz will have a monopoly on Eastern Europe in the 2030's. Michael O'Leary is getting desperate regarding is aircraft situation.

F26 financial assessment so far:

Pro's:

Load factors: 10% increase (over 2024)

Yields: +5%

Sale & Lease profits: €170m (F26)

Therefore positive revenue rise: 15%

Fuel Cost: -1%

Some costs Normalise inflation: Staff, ATC, Airports, down from 11% increase in f25 to 3% increase in F26

Maintenance costs: flatline

Easter in Q1

Cons:

Depreciation: 13% cost increase

Iran 12 day war: €60m-€90m

Divorce settlement: ???

Debt Downgrades: some higher interest

I don't know what the joint venture separation costs will be but the situation looks profitable for the year. Probably break even for the first Quarter. That 12 day war was expensive.

Pike

Great post.

I think that you should have a basic understanding of the business that you invest in. Understand the target market and how the company will achieve profitability for you over time.

You can never (except very extraordinarily) buy stock in a company at the bottom of the market with all upside to come.