Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

David

Answer this question:

Don't short positions have to be closed at some point? And when they're closed don't the shares have to be bought? If so, has Marshall Wace committed himself to buying Wizz Air shares in the future?

1. Jeffries- Price Target £9.50... Based on next Easter not meeting target growth.

They don't have visibility on that. If Israel comes back strongly then I would expect next Easter to be very strong.

2. Barclays- Price Target £9.... Based on joint venture Abu Dhabi, hot and harsh concerns.

Well Varadi knows all about this concern and is very proactively dealing with it.

3. Panmure- Price Target £8... Based on extrapolating forward the increased costs resulting from the groundings.

This is nonsense to me. We're not going to see a 20% increase in costs then another 20% etc. In fact the only Airline that rivals Wizz for CASK after the engines issues are removed is Ryanair.

Maybe these analysts hit those Price targets in the short term but it'll be short and sharp.

...

Easyjet: Really are mostly a UK Airline with small sister companies in Europe. They have similar issues to Ryanair. With 80 A319's, all of which need replacing, they'll not grow much in the foreseeable future.

JET2: Great growth but entirely UK focused.

Lufthansa & IAG: Example of legacy carriers. From a shorthaul perspective their Aircraft Orders are quite small and Lufthansa has exposure to the 737max which as discussed is always subject to delays. Lufthansa have a very old fleet averaging over 14 years. IAG is around 11 years. They are not competitors or competitive with Wizz.

The summary is that there is only one shorthaul Airline in Europe capable of taking advantage of the the significant Passenger growth in Europe in the next 10 years and that is Wizz Air. This is due to the age of their Aircraft, the type of Aircraft, the number of orders. I would add to that that they are one of only a handful of Airlines with very competent management.

IMHO the current Wizz Air share price is short term and entirely driven by accountants. The same as Boeing, run by accountants instead of Engineers and Pilots for the last 27 years. Those accountants have driven Boeing into the ground.

Just a basic analysis of the Mid term shows that Wizz is likely to be the predominant player in European shorthaul in the 2030's. The current issues are just a blip in the history of Wizz.

Look by at the Market:

Passengers per Seat KM (Worldwide) grew by 10.3% in 2024. This indicates Worldwide that passenger numbers will double in around 7 years. The only European Airline that can cope with this growth is Wizz. Eastern Europe is growing Passenger numbers above 10% per year.

Look individually at Airlines:

Wizz: 2030, wizz will have 420 A321 Neo's with an average age of just over 4 years. This is unrivalled in terms of economics.

Ryanair: Considered the East European competitor to Wizz. Ryanair's capacity will likely shrink. It currently has 400 737-800's that will probably need to be replaced within the next 10 years. Ryanair's aircraft are subject to significantly more pressurisation cycles than most Airlines. Aircraft need to undergo periodic Checks (similar to cars). Every 8 years or so a "D-Check" is required. On Aircraft over 20 years old this is often considered too expensive to be justified, and Aircraft are phased out at this point. Ryanair have 400 Aircraft arriving at this point in the next 10 years. The current replacement rate (if Boeing promises are met) is 26 (year 2025). Unless Boeing get their act together quickly, Ryanair will shrink.

Continued shortly...

Pogo: I don't agree with your assessment. The management have never given any indication of being anything other than politically neutral. They are no more anti -EU than Michael O'Leary is. They intend, just as Ryanair does to reenter Ukraines market just as soon as possible.

Eastern Europe is a big growth market for both Wizz and Ryanair.

Nothing has stopped investors buying Wizz in the past, they pushed it to a wholly unjustifiable £53. They'll do the same again.

Pogo. You seem reasonably intelligent, Please back up categorical statements with links.

Nicnic

Ok. Names. Not sure if I should.

Top 3 I remember:

Chris Simmons... Great Canada trip, skiing

Graeme Register.. Line training

Nick Windspear.... sim training

All nice people. Graeme was a bit too serious from memory but those were the times.

Nicnic.

I'm sure that we have mutual friends. 👍

I used to attend some reunions from my UK flight school, a lot of those guys were former Britannia colleagues but I haven't done that since 2010.

Anyway. Good luck to us with our Wizz investment.

Nicnic.

If we do gave mutual friends, they'd be pretty old now. I was a young First Officer when I left Britannia, 30 years ago now, this year.

You can't guarantee to me that the Q1 report will be a disaster. I don't know who you are (the advantage of an anonymous forum) but at a guess, you're not working closely with Varadi.

The Q1 Report, well as they say, it will be what it is. It won't change anything for me, if investors don't like it, then I'll be able to buy and average down my price faster.

For that matter, if the share price was £2, I'd be averaging down very fast.

Understand, I'm a long term investor and am averaging in as fast as I can because I believe in the long term future of this Airline. I wish that I'd done the same with Ryanair and Jet2.

David

Come on. Which Analyst is forecasting £2.

You and I both know that when it comes to Wizz, one good Quarterly report could double the share price.

Look, you made a good call, you said £10. Don't push your luck.

David

I accept that the current situation is what you want. That's fine. But Wizz is a great company. It's been around for 21 years, it's profitable, it has one of the best Airline CEO'S in the World.

Despite the Fitch downgrade, if you read what they said, they believe that Wizz has a good mid term future and that the downgrade is associated with the short term issues.

I'm in a different situation from a lot of guys on this forum, I believe 100% in the future of Wizz. I'm not leveraged (yes, I've lost money, on paper), but I'll keep averaging in and look forward to the day when Wizz is either the biggest Airline in Europe, or just second rivaling Ryanair.

Maybe I'm a dreamer but I'm very confident. I have reasonable knowledge, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

A321 Neo's are the future. Every other Airline would love to have Wizz's orders.

Stille

MOL is always attacking Wizz. He's scared to death of Wizz. Wizz is the real long term competition.

Robbren

I would have thought exactly that. Presumably the only buyer would be Ryanair and competition regulations maybe stopping that. The truth is, I don't know.

Good Post VarJohn

IMHO Ryanair can't expand. They have Aircraft over 20 years old which will have to be replaced soon and Boeing are delivering aircraft at a trickle. In terms of seat numbers, I think Wizz will be very close to Ryanair by 2031 and will have newer more efficient aircraft.

You know that O'Leary is desperate, he's giving significant consideration to the Chinese aircraft (I forget the number they gave it). This aircraft is already 20 years out of date in Airbus terms and will not receive regulatory approval in Europe any time soon.

Easyjet and Jet2 are a little better off than Ryanair, but they still have old fleets. Easyjet will need to get rid of all of those A319's, they're low capacity, high fuel burn, high maintenance.

Robbren

I hope for a good day as well. But everything is based on the fundamentals. 80% of all of the movements in share price come with the earnings report. If we see costs flat lining and a Q1 net profit greater than €70m and guidance from Varadi then I would be highly optimistic of a large positive move. It's July 24th. Nothing will happen before (IMHO).

Just looking at recent Investment company dealings in Wizz. It looks like Barclays increasd their position by about 2% of available shares while Artisan reduced their holding by about 1% of available shares.

Smart Pogo

Your statement regarding large investment companies "Panic Evacuation " is very misleading.

One investment company that had a very high stake in Wizz has reduced it's holding relatively gradually over the last one year. The Capital Group held around 14% a year ago, they have reduced that to just under 10%. This presumably was in line with their company regulations as Wizz Air's debt rating was downgraded.

They still believe sufficiently in Wizz to continue to hold a high percentage of the company, though they may continue to reduce their holding.

For me, their reduction in shareholding is an opportunity to buy more at a lower price.

Smart Pogo

You're trying to read stuff into other people's posts that is not there.

My view is that the short term price could be anything, I really don't know. But I am a long term investor, I am anticipating holding Wizz for the next 8 years. I buy some Wizz shares every month in order to get an average price which is acceptable. I will continue to do that for now. This is a normal investment process.

My expectation, as I have said previously, is that the share price will normalise. By that I mean; each aircraft will generate a net income of around £2m and the PE will be 8-10.

These are not fancy words or ridiculous optimism, over time this is what you can realistically expect from a sizable, well managed Airline. Varadi has a 30+ year record, he's one of the best Airline CEO's in the World.

I know this Industry, I've been in it myself for the best part of the last 40 years. I have a reasonable understanding of what works and what doesn't. I would never have invested in Norwegian Airlines- 12 years ago when they started their North Atlantic longhaul business. Wizz Air is different, they have a fast growing niche market.

Pogo- I understand that you're a Troll having fun with us. That's fine. Gives us an opportunity to put our views out there.

David

I told you before, when you said £10 next, that you may be right. Market sentiment took IAG to 90p. Market sentiment may take Wizz lower. This is the Airline industry, share prices tend to be volatile and fickle.

You have to understand, the share price cannot stay here. Presumably, you believe that Profitable Wizz will go bankrupt. If it doesn't it's aircraft will normalise their revenues and costs, profits will normalise and the market cap will normalise.

Well... David & Smart Pogo

The Market Cap is just over £1B. Next year Wizz will have 265 A321 NEO's. It's not going to stay a £1B company. It'll either be £0 or £5B- £10B. Presumably, you guys think that it'll be Zero, well the rest of us seem to be taking the other side of that trade.

Keep in mind, Wizz is a profitable Airline currently.