Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

No offence taken Pogo. 👍

I'm guessing that he didn't give guidance on June 5th because he was in the middle of divorce negotiations with the UAE wealth fund. With that out of the way and bookings for the summer very visible, guidance should be straightforward.

The lack of guidance has left the market in no man's land for 7 weeks. No big investor was going to buy under these circumstances. Therefore the share price was always going to drift downward.

Robbren

None of us can really see a continued drop or a rise. It'll depend in the short term simply on the Q1 earnings.

We hope for the best in the short term. But it'll be good in the long run anyway.

Robbren

Don't worry about any of the posts on here. Just keep averaging in a little every month. That way you'll get the best price you can from when you came in. Keep the faith. To me it's clear:

- Great CEO

- The best aircraft with the best order book in Europe.

- Niche market with little competition

- History (pre-covid) of being hugely profitable

- If you say that the 12 Abu Dhabi Aircraft haven't been paying for themselves + 45 Grounded + 3 in Ukraine. That's actually nearly one third of the fleet unproductive. IAG would be bankrupt, yet by hook or by crook Wizz eeks out a profit.

It will all come good.

Dave

It's already come down from £18.15 in March, would another 10% really make any difference?

I'm just going to keep on buying every month. IMHO This stock is very cheap below £20.

We're less than 2 years away from having our full fleet of Aircraft back.

Sorry Pogo.

I'll get some more Capital then I'll come back. Sound OK?

Ryanair will not grow again for 10 years.

- Slow delivery of B737-Max

- Significant problems with the Max engine, the CFM-Leap1B.

It's a shame that Wizz Air Abu Dhabi didn't work out. It was a move onto other people's patch. The other people with the power ensured that it didn't work. Despite being only 49% European, Wizz Air were limited to only secondary less profitable routes that needed to be developed. There are Milk runs out of Abu Dhabi such as Delhi, Mumbai, Jeddah, Riyadh, Kuwait etc. However many flights you put on those routes, you'll fill the aircraft. They were prevented from operating in these markets.

The North Atlantic is the same, no European low cost will ever be allowed to be successful to the United States. The American Airlines, American Unions, American Government and the very, very expensive American legal System will always conspire against you. It destroyed Norwegian Airlines and now you see Norse Atlantic slowly pulling out as well.

What Ryanair have done well is just to stick to their home grown market, it's big enough and it's worked amazingly.

Except for, let's say, the 3 year Covid period, the Airline Industry in Eastern Europe grows at 10% every year, that's double every 7 years. And slowly Wizz monopolise that market. It's big enough for a 500 Aircraft Wizz Air in 6 years time.

I hope that Wizz is turning a corner. Next week's Q1 report remains pivotal.

Sorry for the chaotic posting there, the pop up adds were shifting the position of where I was typing... 🙄

Varjohn

I know I've said it before but I think that Ryanair is rapidly becoming a paper tiger. As long as Boeing is restricted on it's Max deliveries, Ryanair can't replace its ageing fleet of B737-800's.

Varjohn

I know I've said it before but I think that Ryanair is rapidly becoming a p

OTCD

What do you mean by a sense of realism? I think that every post I've made has been realistic. I know that there's no short term cure to the issues Wizz have, that's what makes the Share price so cheap, and what makes it such a good mid/long term opportunity.

David

Answer my questions rather than winding me up.

OTCD

Very nice post. I wish that all posters would give us this kind of discussion.

The reason that I view Varadi as a very capable CEO has nothing to do with how he copes with a pressure environment in front of a pack of Analysts in Quartly earnings call. I'm not saying that it isn't important. But I think that his record going back nearly 30 years is more important.

He set up Wizz in 2003, in Eastern Europe, where there wasn't the benefit of the strong economies that Ryanair, Easyjet and Jet2 had. Despite that he's turned Wizz into the fastest growing low cost Airline in Europe. If we look at the time before Covid, Wizz was making €3m per Aircraft profit. That demonstrates the ability to keep Airline costs strictly disciplined and an understanding of the routes he needed to put the Aircraft on to make the profit.

I totally agree that how the Q1 report and call goes on the 24th will be the catalyst as to which way the share price goes in the short term.

My view is a little different from the 99% on here. I don't really care about the immediate short term, except to say that I hope they manage to remain profitable in F26. My view is that in F28 with 300 Aircraft operating and without groundings, the company should be able to make a net profit of at least £600m. That would put me on a Personal PE of about 3.

Thanks again for your great post.

Craigo

Regarding Jet2. I've been to 2 different sources to find out about their ownership model and they both tell a different story, one says that Jet2 lease the majority of their Aircraft, the other says that they own over 100 of their Aircraft. I presume that they own their older Aircraft and this increases their market Capitalisation compared to Wizz.

Craigo

The peculiarity to me is that Jet2 don't own their own Aircraft yet the Aircraft they lease don't show up as debt on their balance sheet but with Wizz it does. Somebody could explain that to me?

Craigo

I think that it's perceived risk. Jet2's operating margins are better than Wizz 6% vs 3%. Wizz Air have a net debt of around €5B where Jet2 have very low debt and are strongly cash positive.

IMHO the management of Wizz is a lot stronger than Jet2's current management. Jozef Varadi has decades of experience in Eastern Europe and has always successfully run Airlines there.

Jet2 used have a CEO and founder, Philip Meeson, he was responsible for making Jet2 the strong company that it is now, but here retired from that role several years ago. The current management is just a continuation management.

Pogo 🙄

Respect everyone

I remember, a very long time ago, Michael O'Leary saying that he loved shorts because they were the people who had committed to buy his shares.

David:

Another few questions:

If shorts need to buy back the stock. With over 5% shorted, are shorts not committed to buy back more stock than RBC Capital just sold which forced the recent decline? Therefore are we not certain to see a significant rise in Stock prices at the end of the short trade? Short trades are temporary by nature, are they not?

Does a long term holder need to worry about temporary short trades? or use them as a buying opportunity?

If, as you said the share price could go to £2 wouldn't that be a PE of just over 1? Is that likely with company that will probably be very profitable in the Mid term?