Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Michael O'Leary is Putin. In this analogy.

Well I don't think any takeover offer will be for less than £30/share.

I think that Wizz Air is just about all that Michael O'Leary can think about at the moment. He knows that 2/3's of his fleet are about ready for the scrap yard and that 1/3 of his Boeing Aircraft order will probably never arrive. And then there's Wizz with a potential 500 Brand new A321 NEO's (Best in class Aircraft). It's like NATO v Putin.

Drom

It's 4% of total shares where the short position is large enough that it's required to be disclosed. Greater than 0.5% of company stock. Obviously there'll be shorts with smaller positions.

Drom

Yes is the answer. I remember Michael O'Leary saying a few years ago that he loved shorts because those were the people who were committed to buying the stock in the future.

Bernstein will be right in the end, they just live in a World of compressed time.

Frank

It sounds to me like you should be buying Nvidia or Coinbase. Those companies are likely to give you the big returns in months, rather than years.

I don't believe that comparing Wizz with Intel is apples for apples (English saying). Intel is a Dinosaur in the chip making World. They have Been overtaken by the competition. They don't attract the best talent in the IT World.

You're comparing that with an Airline that has one of the fastest growing niche markets in the World, that has orders for best Aircraft (unrivalled by any other European Airline). And is currently trading at the cheapest price imaginable. They have known troubles which will be resolved on a given timeline.

Thanks for giving me reasons to post 👍.

Frank

"3-5 years is a long time"

Well in any other industry you'd probably be correct.

But the Airline industry and especially Wizz, I think you have some reasonable visibility.

- nearly certainly, East Europeans will be flying in larger numbers than they currently are.

- nearly certainly you'll have engine issues at Wizz resolved.

- nearly certainly the A321 NEO will be the best, cleanest and most fuel efficient shorthaul Aircraft.

- nearly certainly Wizz Air will be the largest European operator of the A321 NEO.

- Nearly certainly the East European market will have very little competition to Wizz.

- Nearly Certainly the only competitor to Wizz in East Europe will still be struggling to obtain new Aircraft.

Given the above

- Nearly Certainly, Wizz Air will be highly profitable in 3-5 years time.

Frank

I don't care what anyone says about following the Barclays Analyst, he has clearly been the most accurate regarding the trajectory of the share price. He also seems very conservative. He upgraded from £9 to £11, now to £15. My guess would be that the £15 will be hit in the near term, Barclays will then upgrade again.

You want a short term view, that's it.... £15.

Consider seasonal factors though, share prices tend to move the most shortly before Christmas. I would expect £15 by Christmas.

IMHO

Michael O'Leary of course is covering Panic with bravado.

Ryanair can not obtain modern, clean, fuel efficient Aircraft. They took 5 in the last quarter from Boeing. Next year they need to start retirement of the B737-800, 15 in 2026 but that'll grow to a phasing out of between 40 and 60 per year. The B737-Max10 is still not certified. This means that Ryanair may need to take Max8's instead which are smaller and deliveries remain slow.

Wizz Air are rationalising, phasing out as quickly as possible their old A320's. Leaving them with a fleet of the most modern, most efficient, cleanest, and largest in terms of seats -shorthaul Aircraft available. The Aircraft will be used on routes that Wizz know to be profitable, routes will be densified and costs reduced. Pre-Covid profits of €3m per Aircraft should come back.

2027 Wizz Air's financial debt will be gone.

Ryanair will not have sufficient Aircraft to run a big East European network alongside their core West European operation. The market is their and open for Wizz.

In 2027: Whether you say Wizz have 260 Aircraft, each making £2m. Or you say that Wizz have 80m passengers each making €8. You generate a share price of £40-£50 before any "Buyback".

To me, Wizz is a no trainer buy. Even more so, if it becomes a takeover target as O'Leary was maybe suggesting.

All in my fanatical "buy Wizz Air" humble opinion.

Frank

Most of us on here are hoping that we've seen the bottom. Everything looks good at the moment. IMO the Barclays Analyst is the most reliable. He seems very in touch with the Airline industry and especially Wizz Air. He's upgraded twice in a short period and he'll upgrade again soon (I hope and expect).

My view, personally, is trade shares with a long term perspective and try to understand for yourself the company that you partly own.

Frank

IMO. Don't listen to your broker. Hold until at least summer 28.

Robbren

Airbus have to pay compensation when they don't deliver on time. Voluntary slowing of deliveries works well for Airbus currently.

Robbren.

I don't think there'll be a penalty at all.

1.Certain changes were written into the contract.

2. Airbus have a 10 year back log of orders for Aircraft. Where possible they're looking to slow deliveries.

MrMazman

And I think that Barclays put themselves in a position to upgrade again in the near future.

Frank

"This 10-15 Aircraft swing is bad news"

My view: It only changes the route planning for the future. It won't change profitability.

Gary

Sadly I still have to work.

Barclays forecast remains very conservative.

F28: They calculate less than £1m/Aircraft profit

2018, Wizz were making €3m per Aircraft with fewer seats per Aircraft.

I'm sticking with £2m profit per aircraft and a PE of 8. After Engine issues resolved.

Robbren

Thanks for your Great reply to my post.

My view is that going into yesterday's earnings report, we knew that there would be a downsizing of the A321XLR order and replacement with A321NEO's.

We also knew from our friendly Barclays Analyst (who appears to be in close communication with Wizz management), that a slower growth rate going forward would be required. However over the next 3 years, nothing changes, summer 2027- there should be 265 operational Aircraft. And hopefully no financial debt.

The institutions can not have more than a 1 year time horizon because their customers will not accept a downward trajectory of their managed portfolios.

This stock requires a 3 year time horizon.

Nothing changed yesterday (only to note that the company remains profitable). Simple arithmetic regarding a fleet of 265 Aircraft operating by summer 2027 indicates a share price of £42 + possible buy back, by summer 2028.

My view is, despite volatility, nothing changed. This a fantastic opportunity with a mid term time horizon.

IMHO of course.