Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Frank

It's the July load factor. It should be published tomorrow and probably before market opening. But it does vary. As far as I'm aware it's not a specific time.

Stan

I don't know that Wizz will get more slots out of LGW.

But the Saudi government are positively encouraging religious tourism for both Hajj and Umrah. You can chatgpt those. They're essential muslim Pilgrimage's. With around 3-4m Muslims in the UK, there's a massive market for Wizz Air's A321XLR's. I think that they can operate flights from Birmingham, Manchester and East Midlands. I would expect them to be able to fill every flight.

Medina is also import. So it's 2 Saudi destinations.

Riyadh has no religious function but economically it's growing explosively, so from the UK that's another possibility.

Good Morning Frank

You know my view already. In the short term, all you can anticipate is volatility. In the Mid term (summer 28) as the company normalises, expect a share price above £40.

My guess is that as long as there are no more black Swan events, the share price will continue to rise. I think that both fundamentals and technicals support that.

If you like technicals then:

-It has mid term double bottomed (September 24' then July 25').

If you consider seasonal factors, it tends to be very slow from now until the end of October.

The Good news is that Wizz have very few flights from the UK to Spain compared to Ryanair, Easyjet and Jet2.

Tirana. 4 flights all basic £240 one way. 6th August.

Must correct myself, it's only 4 flights to Bucharest.

You're right though. Spain looks like it's fallen off a cliff.

Anon

Look at Wizz Air's "bread & butter" runs. Luton to Bucharest, 5 flights per day, all at around a basic of £240, then add the ancillaries that's + 100%.

Look at Gatwick to Jeddah, that's £674 +ancillaries.

The yields Look good to me. Ryanair's break even was €37/seat, Wizz is a little more than that but not much

They need these 15 × A321 XLR'S for their UK to Jeddah runs. They can fill all of them.

According to Michael O'Leary in the recent earnings call, Stephanie Pope (Boeing Commercial Airplanes Manager) has assured, in writing, that Ryanair would start receiving their B737-Max10 Aircraft in early 2027.

Come on. This is a "don't make me laugh" situation. The Max 10 is not certified yet.

What about Emirates, do you think that the delivery of their B777X's was not "in writing", delivery dates:

2018

then 2019

then 2020

then 2021

then 2022

now, probably 2027.

What about Riyadh Air. They were assured by Boeing (presumably in writing) that their Aircraft would be Available for them to start operations in early 2025, now it's fewer Aircraft and possibly by the end of 2025.

The "in writing" has a clause. Boeing will compensate if delivery doesn't occur on time. And it never does.

Boeing have orders for 6200 Max Aircraft. They currently deliver about 400 per year. Those Aircraft will be obsolete by the time they're all delivered.

Another point is that a buyout cannot be successful without Indigo Partners selling their share of the company. Obviously I don't know but I would suspect that they're not interested in selling Wizz at the £20 level.

DD77

Buyout would have to be double ++. IMO

Even Aer Lingus which was not profitable and was a high cost, relatively small legacy Airline ended up, after years with the European Commission, getting bought out for more than 4 times it's lows.

Whatever anyone thinks here, golden rule..... "Don't listen to Michael O'Leary ".

He's smart and drives his propaganda. But he's panicking. He ordered the wrong Aircraft.

Ryanair changes routes and bases on a very regular basis. I don't understand his arguments regarding Wizz changing routes and bases. His old B737-800's will make Ryanair very high cost.

Stille

Your forever position, in my view, it can have a reasonable time line. Normalisation will come when all Aircraft are operating normally and each Aircraft is producing a profit of around £2m and the company is trading at 8-10 PE.

At that point the share price should be around £40. There'll probably then be a share buy back as the company will have Cash.- Driving £42-£50.

The rapid rise in share price will be over and done. That should be summer 28. You can then decide if you're going to hold for a much slower rate of share price rise.

I'm sticking with my 8 year hold. But 3 years should work as well.

Please, Stille, don't get out before £40.

And thanks for your kind words.

IMHO

My theory on Analysts:

The only 2 real Airline guys focused on Wizz are Lobbenberg (Barclays) and Irving (Bernstein).

Lobbenberg: Too Conservative

Irving: Too Optimistic

So split the difference between those 2 you have a one year price target of £22.50

All the rest of the Analysts are simply accountants reviewing numbers.

Let me just tell you what I'm basing my speculation on regarding how much would be bid for Wizz Air, if there were a takeover bid, which there probably won't be.

The takeover process is a long one. It has to pass the regulators. It'll probably take years.

In March 2009 (pre takeover speculation) Aer Lingus share price was €0.60.

In 2012 Ryanair bid €1.30/share (rejected).

In2015 IAG took over Aer Lingus for €2.55/share.

So the final takeover price was a little over 4× the totally pre Ryanair interest share price.

Taut

The bid amount made by Wizz for EZJ was undisclosed.

You're mistaking the £1.2B rights issue that EZJ made to raise cash for the bid that Wizz made.

Needless to say, the bid which Wizz made was much higher than £1.2B but still significantly undervalued EZJ, and was rejected.

Were Ryanair to bid for Wizz, it would be an offer that 90% of investors could accept.

Taut

Even if there's a rumour of a takeover bid, Wizz Air's share price will double.

Frank

That's not how Company acquisitions work. For Ryanair to successfully buy Wizz Air they need to make an offer that a minimum of 90% of shareholders would accept.

My opinion is that most reasonable shareholders know that a full return to normality for Wizz Air would put them on around the same market Cap. as Easyjet, £3.8B - £4B. Ryanair would expect some discount from that for the current circumstances.

IMHO

Taut

Another possibility regarding the buyout is that the largest shareholder of Wizz would have to agree to the buyout. That's Indigo Partners. They have the yes/no with 26% of shares.

Taut

Ryanair definitely have the cash to buy out Wizz.

Two reasons for possibly not doing it, first one, like you said, maybe they've been advised that regulators would not allow it.

The second reason is that the low cost business model has adhered to the fundamental rule of only a single Aircraft type; reducing purchasing, maintenance and training costs to a minimum. A mixed fleet would make the Airlines costs significantly higher.

Having said that, given Ryanairs current predicament, I think that they'd want to buy Wizz .

Frank

You are wrong about Ryanair obtaining new technology in the next 3-5 years which would make them more competitive.

Technology takes a decade are more to be certified in the Aviation industry.

An example is our FMC's (Flight Management Computers), these are 1990's technology. Computers and AI have moved a million miles on from what we use but what we use is safe and certified.

In my opinion. Wizz are having the best technology delivered now and for the next 10 years. Ryanair are handicapped by the poor choice of their Aircraft Orders.

Ok, Frank. I know that you're just looking for reassurance for your investment. I've given you plenty.

Frank

If you buy and hold Wizz, It'll be your best ever investment decision. IMHO.