Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Pogo

I don't agree. The financial adjustments that you're talking about have not been discussed by anyone including analysts during the earnings calls. You said that there was a 70% chance of an unfavourable earnings report on July 24th, you don't know that. That's why in the days after an earnings report the share price moves up to or more than 60%.

Macroeconomics plays a major factor in Wizz airs prospects going forward but by far the biggest factors are internal, particularly resolving the Engines.

Forecasting 3 years ahead. I think it's easier to forecast 3 years ahead than 3 months ahead. You know how many aircraft they'll have. You know pretty well the profitability that you can expect from each aircraft. Obviously you can't pick a precise share price, but you have a reasonable idea.

Pogo

I'm not going to say that you're wrong because in the short term it's possible that you're right.

I would say that this Wizz management know the East European Air travel market better than anyone. They are selecting routes that give regular load factors of above 90% and are growing revenues faster than the increasing number of operating aircraft would reflect.

They have Been hit by 2 wars and an unprecedented Engines issue; yet over the last 2 years they have remained profitable (currently with a PE less than 6).

Costs associated with the engines issue have thinned margins to point that has alarmed some investors.

Going forward as Aircraft come back to line the above mentioned costs will reduce, revenues will continue to increase and margins will dramatically improve.

£8 in the short term is possible. £60 in the medium term is highly likely.

I'll add my vote to that. I think that a huge number of retail investors were Margin called out on the way from £16 to £10.30. A lot will be looking to get back in. I think that £12 within the next couple of weeks is a reasonable call.

Frank6

Technical analysis is good if the fundamentals remain the same.

For the share price at the end of the Summer, I would say that the only people with any idea of that will be the very senior management.

For us the range is so wide, it's useless. If forward guidance comes out on 24th July and Varadi says that he expects costs to rise due to GTF Engine issues and F26 forecast is for a loss then the share price may well hit £8.

On the other hand if Varadi comes out and says that the revenue is looking really good and he forecasts a profit of €400-€500m for F26, then the share price will move to £24.

In reality, the Share price will be somewhere in between. My guess, November -£15. I hope that it's higher.

My view is that the bigger investors will wait for the Q1 report (24th July) before committing themselves.

DTHarry

Nice to see Technicals backing up my view that Wizz Air is currently an exceptional investment/trade.

I can't buy enough fast enough.

KPA1

Long wait. That depends on your mindset. When you're in your late 50's like me, 3 years is nothing. I'm planning to hold for 8 years. The important thing is not to use leverage, it's expensive and dangerous.

Runner

I think that £2m per Aircraft is a reasonable bet. I believe that in full year 28, with 300 Aircraft operating normally, we could see profit of £600m and a PE of 8 giving us a share price of around £48.

If that is achieved and financial debt is repaid as promised then I think that we go into a massive share buy back.

That to me makes this a minimum 3 year hold with potential 5× profits or more.

Madmat

If you're a long term holder then just keep believing and averaging in. Varadi knows that he needs to make changes and get costs down. Nothing happens tomorrow. Even one year now is pushing it. This company is a great investment if you have a minimum 3 year perspective.

Clearly some Investment banks (notably RBC Capital) decided that they had better things to do with their money in the short term.

The Central and East European markets for Airlines are growing fast. The engine issue will resolve itself. Yields will rise. But this is a mid-long term investment.

Hi Zebbo

I think that the last time short sellers really circled Wizz was last September and the went up 37% in the following month.

That was before Iran-Israel kicked in, in October, to bring the share price back down to Earth.

Iraq and most of Syria's airspace is closed, that'll cause re-routing for Aircraft heading to Europe from Abu Dhabi.

Since late Friday, there's been very little volatility. Presumably that means that buyers and sellers are totally in balance. From here, could go either way in the short term.

I remain very optimistic. I think that the bear case from Panmure projects forward the rising costs. I think that is quite unreasonable, the the costs will reduce as the grounded Aeroplanes come back to line. The revenues are rising and therefore profit Margins and this important Debt/EBITDA ratio will improve.

The Israel-Iran conflict is short term and is only an opportunity to buy.

Anyone telling me that well you said £30 by Christmas, well you're right, I wasn't expecting such a rise in costs this year. Hopefully it'll be £30 for Christmas 26'.

Hello David.

No, it's better than that but not much. It's currently £19.30. But I'll average that down to this year's high in the coming few weeks, £18.15.

I'm in it for the long term, not leveraged. I first came in; in 2022, I've bought as high as £28.

Arms

There's already a lot of bad news baked into this cake. There are an awful lot of people ready to buy between £11 and £9. My guess is that as soon as an ounce of good news comes out, a lot of traders will jump in. It'll go up a £1 very quickly.

I don't follow technicals at all. I think the share price next week will move on Middle East news. Don't forget, Technicals are 20%, fundamentals are 80%.

Having said that, one observation during the last 40 minutes of trading was the lack of volatility. It seemed that the de-risking for the weekend, discussed in earlier chat, was met with an equal number of buyers. Surely that means that next week when the de-risk trade is over, the buyer will outstrip the sellers.

Personally I want to average in some more, so I don't want too much movement too quickly.

Https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/deutsche-bank-stays-bullish-on-wizz-air-despite-lowered-price-target-4875546

MadMat

Yes. That's what we're hoping for.

300+ Aircraft with an 11+ PE. That would be great but that would be my time to sell unfortunately.

I don't mind this stock trading on sensible fundamentals all the way up to 500 aircraft and £2m profitability per Aircraft by 2033.

Taut

I think that I'm super optimistic but £37.50 in a 1 year time frame is too much for me. I only see it as a possibility in a 2 year time frame and even that's a push.

Say 235 operational Aircraft next summer, they have a great year and make £2m per aircraft. That would be a net profit of £470m for F27. They go to a PE of 8, that's a £37 share price (there or thereabouts).

I worked for Britannia Airways in the UK. I have now worked in the Middle East for 30 years.

In my opinion your friend is doing exactly the right thing. By working as a flight attendant for BA he will remain in touch with the industry and will get to know his options to move forward. I would also suggest that he spends time at a Flight School or flying club because that way he'll meet people with similar aspirations and the information they share in that environment is priceless.

There are a lot of jobs for Pilots in the UK at the moment. I have no doubt that your friend will be in the right seat of a Jet very soon. Good luck to him.