Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Obviously I agree. My point was in General.

If our friend on this message board is a genuine short, along with other shorts on Wizz Air then that's great!

The shorts help keep the share price low on a temporary basis making Wizz much more of a coiled up spring than it would otherwise be.

The true believers in Wizz (like myself) are able to buy more at a much lower price.

Keep it up DavidKov and friends 👍

That's a solid take — Wizz’s 90% load factor on the A321neo or XLR is actually very efficient when you consider the aircraft’s higher seat count (typically 239 vs. RYR’s 189 on the 737-800). So even with a slightly lower load factor, Wizz could be transporting more passengers per flight overall, which boosts revenue potential per rotation.

Plus, the A321neo and especially the XLR open up longer-thin routes with great fuel efficiency, giving Wizz flexibility Ryanair can’t quite match yet. With 250–270 aircraft by next year, many of them next-gen Airbus models, they’ll have the youngest and one of the most fuel-efficient fleets in Europe. That could give them a strategic advantage not just in cost-per-seat but also in expanding eastward and possibly into underserved secondary markets.

I was just thinking that a load factor of 90% for Wizz operating A321-NEO or XLR is significantly better than RYR's 96% on old B737-800's.

Also, this time next year, Wizz will have 250-270 Aircraft buzzing around Europe, they'll be a major player.

I was operating a flight from the Middle East to London yesterday, I flew across Greece, the balkans and in to Italy. On the radio I heard at least 10 Wizz Air Aircraft. I just thought- those guys are out there making me money on Easter Saturday, even with the stock market closed it's still all going on throughout Europe for Wizz.

David. You maybe right about the share price falling below £10. The share price is sentiment driven. Over the next 7 years, the share price will vary significantly in line with sentiment. The trend however will be upwards. As I discussed in my previous post, Wizz will be £100+ when the 500 aircraft start delivering results.

As long as you have a long term perspective and are not leveraging your trading position, Wizz will be a superb investment.

Post Continued:

A P/E of around 10 (assuming more Airline optimism in the future), we're looking at a Market Capitalisation of 10B probably in around 7 years from now. That would be 6.6 times the current value making the company a very good long term prospect.

The threats are very limited. If you want to order Quality Airbus Aircraft now to compete with Wizz in it's market, well I'm sorry but Airbus will not deliver them for 10 years, 2035 or later. The restriction on Airline expansion these days is not passenger demand, it's the Airline manufacturers ability to produce aircraft.

Does Ryanair present a threat: I don't think so. They have their own problems with delays in delivery of new aircraft from Boeing. And the most important point with Ryanair is that they'll be weighed down by the 400 × old 737-800's which carry fewer passengers, burn more fuel and are becoming more maintenance intensive.

My summary & Conclusion is that we have to put up with the recent Black Swan events, get past them, and we get to where this investment becomes phenomenal. Good luck to the believers!

I read from Analysts and Journalists alike that the debt Wizz Air holds is a major threat to Wizz Air's solvency. As I understand it, the vast majority of the debt is as a direct result of the ownership model associated with Sale & Leaseback. This debt was totally planned from day one when Varadi went ahead with his plan to expand the Airline to 500 aircraft.

Presumably the calculations made are that with Oil Prices where they currently are, interest rates where they currently are, a 90%+ load factor, the best new aircraft in the World, fastest expanding markets in the World (central/East Europe and the middle East, hopefully some India) that this style of debt makes total sense.

The end result of the plan is 500 aircraft, each aircraft will generate a net income of around £2m (minimum), that's a net annual income of £1B and