Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

KPA1

Yes. Everyone who believes in Wizz as a business model seems to be a bit of a Walter Mitty at the moment.

I'm holding and averaging in. I've been through the struggles as an employee with Jet2. Where are they now? It'll be the same for Wizz. Just takes time.

I am a B777 Captain. You can call me a Walter Mitty if you want. I'm invested in Wizz because it's the only business that I understand.

Another point. I'm travelling as a staff traveller in Europe at the moment. I'm using the APP to check loads on flights. There are very few unsold seats. I think that Wizz are currently flying full aircraft with relatively high yielding passengers.

I totally agree this is PE 5 bargain.

Nothing has changed in this earnings report. Everything is exactly as expected. My feeling is that it can still be £30 by Christmas. Obviously the forward guidance in the July 24th Earnings report will be critical, followed by actual summer results in November.

From the little that I understand the reason that the big investors were spooked is:

1. €213m net profit which didn't meet the technical rationale that HSBC had for a £19 share price.

2. No forward guidance.

3. Aircraft suffering the effects of being in the desert.

Well number 3 has to be priced in to tickets. Emirates, Etihad, Fly Dubai, Flynas etc all have these issues to a very great extent. It's well known in the industry. It shortens engine and aircraft life. It's terrible for air conditioning packs, which are very expensive.

I wish that I had dry powder but I will be buying more at the end of this month.

It's a volatile stock. You just have to accept it or buy something else.

YesIam

I am B777 Captain. I don't think that implies an intricate knowledge of Jet Engines. I have an operational knowledge and an overview. I don't work as an engineer for an engine manufacturer. I have never flown Aircraft with either P&W or CFM engines. All the aircraft I've flown have been powered by GE or Rolls Royce engines. My personal view is that GE engines are the best. The modern versions are amazingly reliable.

Anybody really interested in Wizz, don't forget to listen in to the earnings call tomorrow. That's the only real information on the company.

I've signed up for it myself but I've had difficulty providing a link here. Maybe someone else could do that.

Robbren:

The notes I type on this forum are for myself. It's just somewhere to put them. I like a little interaction as well.

Iliri:

This what I posted before regarding RYR's old and dirty aircraft.

I come at the company statistics from a different angle from you David. Going forward Ryanairs costs per seat KM are high because of costs related to operating old aircraft, costs such as fewer passengers per aircraft, higher fuel burn and higher maintenance costs. Wizz Air costs maybe higher due to the Sale/Leaseback method of aircraft ownership.

The statistics are, given what I've just said in cost per seat km:

Ryanair: 3.5c/seat km

Wizz air: 3.8c/seat km

That includes interest on debt.

Given that Wizz Air operates from Primary Airports more than Ryanair this difference in costs is very small.

The positive for Wizz investors is:

1. Much faster growing market in Central/East Europe

2. Much lower market Capitalisation in the first place, so likely to grow that market cap relatively fast compared to RYR.

3. Sale/Leaseback guarantees a lot of profit to hit the balance sheet as the 250+ new aircraft arrive (strange to me that those aircraft come, you turn them into a profit and then the lease becomes a debt, but that is as it is).

All the company plans are built on this method of ownership, therefore nothing has changed. Varadi, who is one of the best Airline CEO's of the last 30 years believes in it, then so do I.

Madmat:

I think that what you say is true. The share price has stagnated and may continue to stagnate for a while.

But, share price movements between the Quarterly earnings reports are just noise. Traders having fun. It's the earnings reports that reset the neutral position on the stock price. Therefore only share price movement in the period post earnings is important. The bigger share holders have not been buying or selling. Tomorrow however they may well become active.

You have to sit tight and wait for Wizz to become an amazing investment. We an see that load factors are good and passenger numbers are growing. That's not going to stop. Some markets are growing exponentially (quote from Tim Clarke, this week).

Summer 26'. We should have 250 aircraft operating. They should make £2m each. We'll get more sale&Leaseback profit. £600m profit is likely. EZJ are currently on a PE of 10 and EZJ doesn't have the growth that Wizz has. A £60 share price within the next 2 years is very likely.

There is no other investment that I know of that you can say quadruple your money in 2 years is very likely.

Just sit tight. It'll stagnate until it moves.

Engines fail or get shut down on occasion. This is not a major issue. I have had 3 engine failures and 1 engine shut down due to low oil pressure in my 36 year career.

Https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade-ideas/_wizz-air-fy-2025-earnings-preview--navigating-engine-challenges-250530

By the way. I think technicals are nonsense. The price will move on the fundamentals delivered on Thursday.

Taut:

Just to play Devils Advocate, Wizz Air's net profit for F25 will likely be less than 10% of RYR. And the big investors see that profit coming only as a result of Sale & Leaseback, they don't like that.

Wizz will have 190 of their own aircraft (dry lease not wet lease) operating this summer, they need to deliver a profit of £2m per aircraft. When the bigger investors see that achieved, they'll jump back in.

You have to factor in the price to book value of RYR though as well. By my best guess they own outright around $14b of their own aircraft.

Effectively take RYR's market Capitalisation and subtract $14b then you can compare it to Wizz.

Morgan:

I'm going to have a go at answering what you've said.

Starting with, nothing happens really fast in the Airline industry, you have to buy planes, wait years for them to be delivered, then you have to find routes and then mature the routes into profitability.

After 9/11 in 2001, British Airways shares went down to 90p, a few years later (maybe 2005, without looking) they were back at around £6. The point is that things happen to good Airlines that makes the Share price very low. Recovery then occurs, but the recovery is measured in a few years, not a few weeks or months.

Wizz have had one major black Swan event, that's really the issue with the P&W engines. Add to that, to a lesser extent but still serious, Ukraine and Israel. These issues will be resolved and when they are Wizz will reap the rewards of being a monopoly (possibly a duopoly with RYR) in Eastern Europe (one of the fastest growing markets in the world).

As for getting out with a 5% profit. In my opinion that would be a bad move. Wizz will make its upward moves in occasional bursts. You come out after a 5 % gain, you'll miss the big moves that will occur over the next 8 years. Don't do it. Buy, hold and relax. Don't even look at the share price for another 5 years. This isn't a trade, it's a great long term investment.

Obviously I have no information about Wizz Air specifically. But as an Airline employee, I'm answering questions from staff travellers in other companies about our load factors. I can tell you that we are at least 90%, and we are a legacy Airline, not low cost. Therefore, Wizz should be flying around nearly full aircraft.

Robbren:

Thanks for that.

I think that guidance €250m-€350m is given excluding foreign exchange issues.

In the report, the actual guidance after foreign exchange was €125m-€175m.

However, if they've been smart and held out on hedging and making lease payments until the Euro reached $1.12 then the original guidance would apply. Unfortunately I think that won't be the case.

I'm plugging for a F25 net profit of €150m. And a forecast for F26 of €500m-€600m.

I expect the share price to move on the forecast. 🤞

Robbren

I think that you're probably right. The full year 25 will be mid of the final forecast. Probably €150m net profit.

The share price in the following month will be driven by Varadi's editorial. Hopefully with a forecast of a €500m-€600m net profit for F26.

I am very optimistic. I think the current low share price is due to a lack of news to act on.

Just amazing though how little internal information has come out of Wizz since the Earnings call 4 months ago. Little to no insider trading. Varadi seems reclusive compared to how he was a couple of years ago when he seemed to be on every mainstream media channel and every Airline related conference.

We're at a point with so little up to date information that it's nearly impossible to value the company.

Anyway, the next 5 months will bring 3 earnings reports/calls, it's famine to feast.

It seems like Easy, J2 and RYR have all done well after their recent earnings reports so, fingers crossed, same for Wizz.

And don't get me wrong I'm very optimistic for the next 8 years. I've bought 4 batches of shares in the last week. £15.50, £15.59, £15.87 and £15.85.

I hope we finish next week above £20.

Trump pushes Wizz Air share price back below £16. Just before pay day. I'll be buying more. I already bought some today for £15.50. More on Tuesday.

This is an external factor. No future effect on Wizz.

My only worry is that Trump and the EU will have made an agreement before Tuesday.

MadMat.

True. But investing is 80% fundamentals and only 20% technical. The fundamentals over the next 8 years are what are compelling and will make Wizz a Great investment.

Madmat

Obviously I didn't say that ATC issues were disproportionate.

I said that CEO's (plural, particularly MOL but also Varadi) resent the current laws regarding passenger rights because they put a large degree of responsibility on Airlines, when in many cases the culpability lies with governments. The main example being ATC.

As a result both Ryanair, Wizz and others cooperate to the minimum with regard to these passenger rights. This reflects their view that governments should be making payouts rather than Airlines for government failures.

The CEO's are right. The industry is being taxed heavily, plus huge ATC charges. What do Airlines get back in return? Nothing.

This is where the low rating of Which comes from. Agreed Jet2 and Easyjet are more cooperative.

I forgot to mention that European ATC charges have recently been massively increased. Yet the service they provide to Airlines is poor at best. The vast majority of delays are caused by ATC. Usually staffing levels.

Which doesn't do surveys on which ATC units provide the best service.