Senior Share Price (SNR)

Cp2891

Well, I think another bid is even less likely than I did yesterday. Advent have said they won't be bidding. You can hold and get given 298p in a few months time, assuming nothing goes wrong. Or sell and incur the bid offer spread and commission. I'm a seller now.

Do you sell now, or do you wait till takeover?

Agreed. £3 is patsy capitulation

As regular readers of this thread will know I am a shareholder and its nice to see a firm, agreed offer because the uncertainty is reduced. But I was hoping for more. In recent weeks the shares have been over 312p and I put on a limit order to sell at 320p which was never executed. That's that I think they are worth. I'm not very hopeful that a counter offer will be made although I do remember the succession of higher bids that Spectris received in Q4 2025 before it was finally taken over. I'm holding for now, happy with the profit and have to admit I am being greedy !

Most of this morning SNR had been down but never by more than 4p (i.e. 285.5p per share). Moments before the offer was announced at 12:56 pm today, people were buying at 286.5. After the announcement the price spiked up a bit - at 12:57 pm there were small buys at 296 and 300 which is the highest price so far today. Since then the price has slipped back - moments ago the spread was 291 / 292.

There are pre-conditions to the Blackstone/Tinicum offer - see the announcement. If it were a "done deal" without any such conditions, SNR would probably be trading at a discount of about 5% to the 300p offer price, i.e. at about 285. The current spread of 291 / 292 suggests that the market thinks that Advent might come in with a higher offer. We know that on Thursday 5 March Advent announced that their most recent proposal at that time had been 272p per SNR share (comprising 270p in cash plus the right for shareholders to retain any 2025 final dividend of up to 2p per share).

Do Advent want SNR so much that they'll increase their offer from about 270 to in excess of 300? Since this afternoon's announcement many more shares have been sold than bought so maybe a lot of people think that the chances of an Advent counter-bid are low.

I've never had any SNR shares. Right now I'm not intending to buy any, but I'm watching the situation and might change my mind.

Note that on Friday 27 March Advent's put-up-or-shut-up deadline was extended by 3 weeks to 5 pm on Friday 17 April. Incidentally, on Tuesday 31 March the Blackstone/Tinicum put-up-or-shut-up deadline had been extended by only 9 days to 5 pm on Thursday 9 April.

I remind everyone of my comment here at 09:21 on 17 March when I pointed out that SNR was only 5p above Advent's Indicative 272p offer price. Very well done to anybody who bought about three weeks ago at under 280. Since then there were two good buying opportunities, but one was only very brief:

- If I remember correctly, there was a bad day for the markets generally in the week ending Friday 27 March when it was possible to buy SNR in the low 260's. Congratulations to anyone who did that.

- At 8:55 am on Wednesday 1 April Arcline (the third of the identified potential bidders) announced that they were pulling out. Within a minute of that announcement, SNR's spread fell from 288.5 / 289.5 to 268.0 / 273.5. By 9:01 am it had recovered to 288 / 290. Congratulations to anyone who was able to take advantage of that brief window of opportunity of just a minute or two and managed to buy at under 285.