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JG68 it’s going to be a bout the p/ e ratio and EPS not the SP itself as we see FCF later this year. Keep the faith!

Well said, Trenners. As always

Cheer up, Trisor and JG! Is the weather getting you guys down?

Here's an aspect of the post-consolidation SP you may not have considered (and apologies if this has already been noted or I'm stating the obvs): the new SP will be AH's SP and he knows it. In other words, we would not be doing the consolidation of the BoD thought the price would slide afterwards. They have waited for Adolfo to make enough progress with his strategy such that the SP will have momentum post-consolidation. I repeat, this will be the AH-era share price and marks a watershed in the recent history of the business.

Sorry , I meant Londoner

Hi Jnb

Thanks for the effortful and insightful response. I agree with all of it and would add that, in a climate of increased geopolitical instability and paranoia, the defence sector will remain a relatively safe harbour for investors. I realise this is not a very positive sentiment, but sadly true nonetheless

Amid all the global market chaos, CPI is now looking like a very safe harbour for whatever’s left of your money. Undervalued, on the up, not trading with the USA. A cosy British business. Old school. I was worried I might be over accumulating… but now I’m so pleased I did.

Wish I had cash to do so 😂

What’s the take on how this all impacts Senior?

Thanks Picky.

To which I’d add the likelihood of being acquired for a price around high end of analyst estimates within 2 years. I see it in the tea leaves imho GLA DYOR

Bought in again today so that, when divided by 15, my holding is a nice tidy number. OCD, I know ….

Oh, and I love this management team!! These guys are not here to fail. I’m happy to ride the coat tails towards wealth creation.

Just cos I grumble doesn’t mean I’m not a believer. I’m invested in this team now. They ain’t come here from Amazon in order to fail. I bought another tranche today.

Not happy with Pablo's answer to the impairment question ... he hopes he 'doesn't have to double dip in June' ...

hmmm ... sounds like it's a real possibility. Damn ...

Topped up today

Thanks Hexam,

Really helpful 👍

Yup. They really made a loss of 67m this year and will likely do so again in 25.

Bugger …

Thanks for the correction Hexam.

So we can expect another loss this year then unless the cost savings make a big difference.

Hi Hexam,

Thanks for the reply. I’m a bit confused maybe … but how can a capital disposal contribute to profit? Surely capital is a cashflow item and doesn’t go into the p&l?

I've done my annual ratio analysis on the financial statements. Here are the highlights.

1. Revenue shrinkage is accelerating: down 6% in '22, down 7% in '23 and then down a whopping 16% in '24. The business is getting smaller faster.

2. Return to positive ebitda: 61m in '22, a loss of 107m in '23, and a profit of 117m in '24.

3. Liquidity remains uncomfortably tight, like Jeremy Clarkson's belt: current ratio is 57%, 49% and 58% in 22,23 and 24 respectively. But we are improving year on year now ... slowly.

4. Gearing is improving. An awful 161% in '23, a manageable 34% in '24.

5. Helped by the strengthening balance sheet and return to profit, ROE has improved a lot: 17% in '22, negative 95% in '23 (ugh!) and now a tasty 60% in 2024.

So, what's the story from these numbers? Well, imho there are very evident green shoots (profit margin, gearing and ROE) that offset the shrinking business. So the story appears to be, as has been said, leaner and meaner Capita. We like that!

It's also worth asking, wtf happened last year? Well, simply, we made a loss in 2023 and the reporting of this tanked the SP (20p in March '22, 35p in March '23 down to 14p in March 24) which had been rendered fragile already by the cyber-f--k. Now we are not making losses and ROE is improving so ... maybe the SP should start to climb back up towards the 20s again? Fingers crossed eh?

GLA

Cap

Knowing CPI the SP will likely collapse again like a bad soufflé on master chef. Or maybe this is the year. But I suspect next year is the year. Again

For once the market seems pleased. Makes a change lolz

Looking good