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Keep trying Ollie, All of your GCM postings seem to follow a common theme no matter what the price when you post them.
That theme being 'You're going to buy in but it's going to be at a lower price'
4/5p is my thinking, altho with GCM, you never know, could easy go back to 1p for all we know. I bet it goes lower before it goes higher from here tho. I always work on the assumption of 20% under placing price, so 5.20p before at least i have a small ish punt here.
How low will the market makers drop it, can't see it going much below placing price
Good post @Redeyemines ;)
very informative and clear.
Hi Adam ---lets just take a really simply look at the figs.
-Since the 16th shares traded amount to around 40 mill.----If we assume half are sales, then 20 mill have gone.
-But that's too simple.
-I watched the days when every buy was getting filled "DIRECT" from the inhouse sell order, so on those days virtually all the T/O were sales ---(buys filled by direct sales).
-It's been a hard one to follow but i'm fairly confident my figs (6-8 mill left to sell), are much nearer the mark than yours.
-We could easily go home one evening only to see a large late trade, and that will be that.
-As I said, it may take a day or two after they have finish, before people realise that there is no longer a seller----That is what happened with the last raise---2.2 for 3 days after they finished and then a straight line to 9.5 p.
-Getting to the stage where trying to be too clever could be a mistake.
-Just my opinion.
-DYOR
Redeye i was typing out my post while yours went live so only just read it. I believe we’re thinking along the same lines…my figures do however match up with sha***d.
I still believe there’s a decent amount of churn left and the makers will create a market soon for them to offload, be that a random spike or off the back of imminent news is anyones guess.
My figures match up pretty much exactly the same as yours sh***ed (nice name lol).
They took the placing, essentially buying for the same reason as us, to make a profit.
They’ve sold some early, recouping some of the cash used in the placing and will continue to do so until they’ve recouped the fronted money, once they’ve banked that it’ll be interesting to see what they do with the remaining 20% or so shares they’ll have for free.
Getting through a churn of 30 million shares is no joke, especially for a ‘binary bet’ of a share that is GCM with historically low/average trading volume, it’s a massive gamble to take for 10-15% profits…
Given we had these guys and plenty of others interested in taking up the placing, you know they’ve been given more info on current happenings with the company than us pi’s (we’re usually the last to know) - anyone who thinks ‘market sensitive info’ isn’t subtly or blatantly presented to financiers is playing ignorant.
To conclude, nobody is throwing away 2m into a company in Bangla that’s never turned a profit, unless they are 100% certain of returns…have a think about it guys.
Shagged---you are of course right as to how Axis is handling this Subscription----but I have different figs than you.
-Been keeping a close eye on all the T/O since the 16th, and working out what could be sales by them.---Also, have tried to second guess as to where they would stop selling ---ie when they have recovered their £2 mill outlay--would they then "run the rest"
-My best guess as at 10 am on Fri and using an average of 7.2p , was that they had 7 mill to go, to take them to about 27.6 mill to have recouped their money.
-At least another 1Mill gone so far today (even at the rock bottom 6.5p), so starting to run out fast now, and could explain why they are happy to take down to 6.5p just to clear it.
---A day or two for it to sink in that the seller is no more, then we will move straight back up.
-Keep em peeled
On the other side, is Hasina really waiting for investors to be on board? Unless they are specific Bangladeshi investors, I doubt it. So does it really matter how many are sold on already?
'Axis Capital Markets Limited ("Axis Capital") has subscribed for the shares on behalf of its clients.'
Mostly, but not always. these 'clients' aren't buying the shares for the same reasons as you and I. i.e- they don't give a hoot about the longer term prospects of GCM and simply want to sell their shares at a higher aggregate price than they bought them. In this case they were bought at 6.5p so as long as the buyer is shifting them above 6.5p then they'll be happy.
So far this particular seller appears to have sold several chunks at varying prices but no higher than 8.5p and the largest of those chunks was for 4.5m shares. There have been several more chunks around the 1m plus mark but really not too many from what I've observed. Perhaps 9m shares sold by the seller at a rough average of 7.5p? Crude estimate I agree but that would equate to only £675,000 worth of shares sold.
Of course, you could argue that Axis's client/s may be shifting them in much smaller amounts ie 100,000 at a time too. It's possible but I'm not banking on it .
Can you explain 'perhaps 1.3 to 1.4 Mill to shift'
Are they already amongst the free float or not?
I thought they were entering the market last week?
The shares that are 'not shifted' where are they if they're not part of the total floated shares?
Also; if not yet sold onto the market, surely we can expect a further downward movement in SP as the supply of shares tick up?
I'm not being pedantic I'm curious as to where this information is coming other than the initial RNS.
I'm not surprised. Not enough buying to get rid of all the placement shares that haven't been moved on. I reckon still at LEAST £1.2m to shift. Perhaps even 1.3-1.4m still to go.
Some delayed buys yet to print
I think this is the buyzone
Surprised we haven't gone on a run higher yet with PR due to start any day and newsflow to start
Watch this space