The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Energy & Power Magazine | Ruling Party and Its Pre Election Pledge for Mining Domestic Coal https://ep-bd.com/view/details/article/MTAxMDQ%3D/title?q=ruling+party+and+its+pre-election+pledge+for+minin
Firstly let me thank you Searcher for all this work.-----now lets see what's really there.
----The thing to take on board is that this is almost a BBC programme, and has included lots of past comments and history to give a complete picture, so we have to start stripping out old stuff and attributing the new stuff to the correct party, and that may not be how the BBC have made it come across.
-All the part starting ---"we are working at the Barra mine" is old and came from the CEO (i think) of Petrobangla last year--( and not as the BBC made it sound , from the Energy Minister in his recent comments)--What he really wanted to say was that Petrobangla's other deposit at Dighipara is ready to be mined via the underground method bla bla bla.
-The point the BBC failed to push was that the Energy Ministry has been looking again at all the coal deposits and studying how each can be utilised.
----You have to remember that Shk Hasina herself attended one of the EM meetings earlier THIS year, and its a dot on the cards that coal extraction and Phulbari was top of the agenda.
-So now we come to the comments from the Energy Minister, given to the BBC last week, that have created all the excitement, and that the BBC have built this programme around.
----These are the only bits of the whole thing that really matter..
-
----"If these proposals are approved at the highest level, coal extraction will commence within the next three years."
---"Considering Bangladesh's energy security, the government has been criticized for delaying the decision to extract domestic coal. Now, at a time when global opposition to coal is intensifying, the Energy Division has become active in pursuing coal extraction"
-
-Everything is in front of the Ministry and Hasina and decisions are being made,.-----Locked and Loaded
... A word to whoever is handling the subscription shares.
.... PULL THE ORDER.
.and let the mm, s stew.
Bought a couple of lots today--all showing as sales---tried to buy @6.75 just now ----NT.
-Remember that subscription stock is at 6.50p ----plus a bit of financing and expenses, so cant see it going below that level.
-Looks right to buy now
Adam ---ive got both of those two on filter so that i do not have to have the page full up with nonsense-------It would help if you would also put them on filter and stop engaging with them on this bb.-----If you are interested in what they have to say, maybe you could off line somehow and spare the rest of us their back and forth drivel..
Thanks very much Bluemagnet----that was what I was after.
Some great stuff here today and all pointing to OPM at Phulbari.
-I would doubt that tomorrow's meeting, it being the first, will come to any firm decisions.
-But I'm sure there will be plenty of discussion about own coal and in particular OP mining both at Phulbari and Barra.----Will we here about those talks straight away---i would doubt it.
-I'd expect a little bit of reflexion and then maybe something to come either from Hasina, or just in the press later in the week, or even after one or two more meetings.
-What I am now 90 % certain of --is that it's coming
You can just imagine that first meeting
... "hello,.. hello... Good to meet you.... Good to meet you too"
... What shall we talk about.?
.. Then a big awkward silence with everyone looking at each other.... Until.. Somebody puts a hand uo and says
... "why don't we mine the coal at phulbari"
.. "great idea, I agree, and me, and me and me.... All agreed then... Let's go to the pub"
... "best we string it out bit, maybe tell her after our next meeting, make it look like we have worked hard to come to the right answer"
Does anybody have the numbers for major shareholders before yesterday's update please.
---Well that made me laugh Searcher.
----" Bangladesh has witnessed a remarkable increase in domestic coal production, notably facilitated by the Barapukuria Coal Mining Company Limited (BCMCL)."
---that's the same mine they are going to close because it's carp.
---But it lays the groundwork ready to announce Open Pit at Phulbari----because they need it.
Just because things may be agreed behind closed doors on Sunday, I wouldn't think for one moment that we will hear about it for a good while.
... Hasina will mull it over and announce in her own good time.
WOO. you are right here, and could be spot on.
.. Just because CCM sold enough, in the last placing, to recoup their £500/_ outlay ( think they retained 5 Mill shares for nothing), it doesn't mean that Axiz CM will do the same.
... They could well retain a much larger % and only sell down a portion of the 30 mill they have to place.
... How much will they retain?... We don't know.
... But
... When the sp moves up, you will know that they stopped selling a few days earlier
Mankini... That's a very good point and should be looked at in a positive light.
... About 60 mill shares have been fed to buyers at an average of about 4p, and we are trading at around 7...8p....
..thats says it all... Follow the money
Exactly dose..... Glad someone, s paying attention
These problems will not just suddenly disappear.
. Their FX reserves have fallen back below the IMF limit of 20 bill, power plants are again sitting idle through lack of fuel, because they cannot afford the import bill, and even the simple task of running the port seems to be beyond them.... Nobody even wants to take the responsibility, and cover the costs, of continually dredging the channel to allow the coal ships access to the port even when they can afford to import.
.... Its just such a mess.
.. Surely they really will have to bite the bullet and mine large amounts of their own coal.
No===== Nbof---i'm not expecting a drop in the SP at all ---rather think it will be held in the 7.5--9 p range until at least 25 of the 30 mill has changed hands----after that-----we are as we were
-
-In Hasina's hands
Yes I thought they were YKIT----i didn't make it up ---i'm sur it was in the RNS's ---but its not there now---or have I got t wrong ?
===just to focus you on some of the finer points
----If im right
--Some of these shares are being fed to mmks and so on to traders ---maybe aose 100/- ---200/- that we are seeing
----also we should expect to see larger "lumps" changing hands (the 4.5 mill is a classic example) as they (ACM) find " clients to take larger positions.
0So to sort pout an argument the 4.5n mill is probably both a buy and a sale, and i'd expect to see more like this in the coming days
0
-As i say----what the volumes
-Shares will be admitted on about the 19th so will AXIS C M appear as a large share holder list and will any drop in holding also be RNS'd---or will ACM disappear the same way CCM has ?
-
-I have tried to speak to he co on this but am getting no reply.
---- I want to take a close look at this latest fund raise, and I think it may be important to look at the previous one first and see if there are any similarities.
---- When i looked at the FR in Jan, the first thing that stood out, was that it was not a placing, but rather it was a Subscription----a difference just in wording ?---no, in my opinion it was more of a money lending exercise from an outfit called Clear Capital Management.
-On paper it looked like they had BOUGHT 30,3 mill shares at 1.65p for £500/-, but did they.?
-They NEVER appeared on the large shareholder list, even though it looked like they had "bought" 12.5% of the company----so what really happened ?
-Well my guess (and this really is just my opinion) is that CCM lent GCM £500/- in exchange for 30.3 mill shares, which CCM then sold on to "clients" and into the mkt,( at anywhere between 1.9p and 2.2p), in order to recoup their outlay.----I was tallying the sales all along, and sure enough, when those sales totalled £500/- , the selling stopped and the SP moved up all the way from 2.2p tp 10p
-What was in it for CCM i hear you ask----well they managed to recoup their outlay by selling around 25 mill shares, so they finished up with 5 mill shares for free (or they could have sold out completely and made £100/- or 20% profit over less than 1 month)----not bad at all.
--The shares finished up in Client (ii's ?) and our PI's hands.
----Think im wrong ?
-Then look at the large shareholders list on GCM web site---you wont find them there with that 12.5% holding---they are not there and in fact they never have been, not even from the admission date of the new shares---not a mention.
-----Now that doesn't sound right to me----but there is something even more alarming.
----Clear Capital Management seem to have been air brushed out of GCM's history all together.
-Go back on all the fund raise RNS's and you wont find one mention of CCM in any one of them-----they were there when the RNS's came out ---but they are not there now----the RNS's have been altered (don't think that is allowed , is it ?), and all mention of CCM has been removed.
-
-Anyway---lets come back to this current fund raise.
-
-Is it going down the same rout---my personal opinion is,--- yes it is
-
-It's another Subscription, again not a placing----so i'm looking to see if we are in for the same ride.
-Will this latest 30 mill shares now be passed on to "clients" and also fed into the mkt for us PI's to consume------
--------WHATCH THE VOLUMES
-If i'm right then we have to start adding up the large sales volume again-----with the sp static i'm assuming 59% of daily turnover is sales and 50% is buys
-so at the moment i think they have shifted about 9 mill shares, and if they are following the same route as before, then they will need to sell about 25 of the 30 mill before they get their money back---should take maybe about a week----lets see.