focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
The CPI glass was half empty 2 years ago. It’s half full today. Speaking as an optimist, I see 50p by Dec 24. If the market was rational it would be there already. The only thing holding us back now is emotion, which makes this a huge opportunity for the rational investor
Topped up this morning. Looking forward to 2024. GLA
Let's just enjoy a nice santa rally and look forward to the 2024 bull market ... hopefully a raging bull market in the case of CPI
GLA
Culley I think the market was just pleased to see no surprises this time. They did what they said they would, for a change.
That plus the lift the whole market received from the BoE decision to hold interest rates
Phil - that’s the essence of reasonable risk: reason. That is, you must have an analysis and a strategy. If not, you’re just a chancer and you’ll lose your money through weak handed and reckless decisions.
Awr88 - it won’t be taken private for less and a quid. II’s wouldn’t stomach it
This is a wealth creator share if you have the ba!!s to buy big and hold until 2026 imho
Interestingly specific prognostication, StockReady ... :D
Why do you think this? (I hope you're right!)
Why do you think that would happen, Den?
Seems in good shape with fundamentals recovering well from pandemic set-back, markets and demand strong, still an obvious acquisition target etc.
I'm not being argumentative, just curious as to your logic? I'll continue to hold in expectation of a bounce to acquisition, but if it dropped as you think I will buy more
Exactly as flagged by IR and as expected.
Still Crapita, but hopefully fixed by this time next year .
I do despise negative FCF though :(
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the first officer speaking. Firstly, apologies for the delays caused by air traffic control. This was beyond our control, but I am happy to say the issues have now been resolved and we have been cleared for take off. Please stow your tray tables away, return your seat backs to the upright position and fasten your seatbelts if you have not done so already.
Cabin crew, take your seats.
There will be a startling rise to 26p and then a retreat to around 22 ...
but in the weeks ahead the 26p beachhead will be retaken by Christmas and we will see high twenties before February.
Ok, pass the bottle ...
That will change.
Remember that IR have 'warned' us already to expect more of the same crapita we saw at the half year: impairments and negative FCF, so I don't expect any significant or sustained rise before middle of 24. This is only for committed longs with a good analysis of the business, and those who want to trade the turbulence in the meantime. This could drop to the mid-teens again in next few months. If it does, I'll buy more. Been buying this for 3 years and will continue to do so as I see a long term £1 a share. But happy to wait for 2-3 years to see that.
Recent update on the rationalisation mentions a target ebit level of 6%. Not great but that would still deliver £180m.
If the P/E ratio 'normalised' over the same period to, say, around 8 to bring it into line with fellow travellers like Serco, then just do the math: what SP would you get for £180m profit and 1.7bn shares in issue?
My calculation is as follows:
SP divided by (180m/1.7bn) = 9
=> SP/0.1 = 9
=> SP = 95p
In other words, if Capita hits 6% profit on approx 3bn of turnover and with 1.7 bn shares in issue and the P/E ratio normalises to 9, then we should see a SP of 95p.
I think the momentum and positive sentiment at that point would push it over a pound.
That's why I am holding
They've been running a jobs-for-the-boys organisation with a quasi-public sector culture (because so much middle management comes from that lazy realm)
There's an article today about 'Lewis's parting gift' but you can't get past the payroll unless you're Nofear ...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-shrinking-away-from-parting-gift-vqrmpxb03
NF can you share your special link to the article?
8k a penny is 800 thousand shares. (8k a point would be ... 80 million shares so I don't think it's that, unless Warren Buffet has joined the bbb?)
If I had that many I'd definitely stay long and ride it to a pound for 650k profit. Why settle for 140k Crowman?
... oh, and the market seems to like it ;)
It all adds up, Aim:
- trusted by government in short, medium and long term
- the hack dealt with, and more than that: the response and increased resilience makes Capita more trusted than ever
- increase in high quality recurring income
- and I love the statement about using AI to enhance service delivery : a sign of things to come under AF - efficiencies and personalised service levels.
Awesome RNS!
We know the results this year will not be good because IR have told us they won't be good. So you might just manage your 14p target, Aim. But ... 14p is ambitious. It would take a perfect storm of external factors as well. If you want to buy in, I'd settle for 16p this season. IMHO ;)
And that's the end of the firesale. This time next year, Rodney: 50p plus