Prospex Eng Share Price (PXEN)

Awful Rns....stay safe

I think we’re getting to a point where the company still carries high financing risk, but at the current valuation it is beginning to look asymmetrical play.

Historically, (as Gusto1 rightly points out) the core issue hasn’t been the underlying assets but management’s ability to develop them without shareholder dilution. I think that’s still the big risk but management have effectively acknowledged this stating capex requirements across the portfolio will “converge into 2027”.

So the investment case for me over the next 6–9 months is whether management secure a farm-in, JV or other non-dilutive arrangement before 2027 capex ramps up.

If they can, I think it will change market perception of the business.

On the plus side, Selva is now beginning to demonstrate stable and recurring cash flow generation though current production still isn’t enough to fully self-fund the wider portfolio.

This is clearly not a low-risk investment. Future financing and operational setbacks (like the water issues at Viura and transformer problems at El Romeral) as well gas price declines are obvious risks. But at the current valuation, the market already appears to be pricing in a lot of those downside risks, while any successful execution on funding and development could lead to a disproportionate rerating.

For me, it remains a speculative buy but I am beginning to see quite a lot of upside if management can address the funding side in the near term.

When's the next placing?

And at what price....

Stay safe

Facts like that don't fit the clowns narrative though

Stay Safe

I lost a tonne of money on Sound Energy but their downfall occurred before Simon Ashby-Rudd, so that can’t be pinned on him.