Member Info for ChickenTonight99

I think we’re getting to a point where the company still carries high financing risk, but at the current valuation it is beginning to look asymmetrical play.

Historically, (as Gusto1 rightly points out) the core issue hasn’t been the underlying assets but management’s ability to develop them without shareholder dilution. I think that’s still the big risk but management have effectively acknowledged this stating capex requirements across the portfolio will “converge into 2027”.

So the investment case for me over the next 6–9 months is whether management secure a farm-in, JV or other non-dilutive arrangement before 2027 capex ramps up.

If they can, I think it will change market perception of the business.

On the plus side, Selva is now beginning to demonstrate stable and recurring cash flow generation though current production still isn’t enough to fully self-fund the wider portfolio.

This is clearly not a low-risk investment. Future financing and operational setbacks (like the water issues at Viura and transformer problems at El Romeral) as well gas price declines are obvious risks. But at the current valuation, the market already appears to be pricing in a lot of those downside risks, while any successful execution on funding and development could lead to a disproportionate rerating.

For me, it remains a speculative buy but I am beginning to see quite a lot of upside if management can address the funding side in the near term.

Interestingly, the Restore Information Management unit announced an acquisition yesterday. Whilst it is probably immaterial, good to see the business pursuing some inorganic growth opportunities and given the high cash conversion rate of this business it likely has capability self-fund several of these opportunities . Hope to see some more in the future!

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/restore-plc_exciting-news-we-are-thrilled-to-announce-activity-7348993606424166402-jDay?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABkmTE0BLesaEZGYoCY7TV-7qcCFisEgUSw

Whilst Kooth has been crucified in the market for the likely loss of Penn and the slightly suspicious looking behaviour in California + reportedly bad performance I think this might now be too cheap to ignore.

Firstly, the company is refuting the recent new article stating their source is out of date and Soluna is performing strongly.

Secondly, "Kooth is currently recruiting for behavioral health professionals with an active license (LCSW, LMHC, LMFT, LPC, PsyD, or School Counselor) in New Jersey" - in the states, councilors are required to be a licensed in the state they are practising in.

This open position, coupled with the guidance at the Half Year results that investors could expect 1-2 further contract wins at the back end of 2024 may be a signal that New Jersey is the next announcement.

At this low price of 180ish there could be significant upside if you have the stomach for it. Having invested at the 250ish mark, I am thinking of picking some more up at this suppressed price though I expect plenty more volatility! Someone talk me down from buying more!

Echoing what has already been said, but another director dealing! It's only 4,800 shares which is smaller when compared to the other director dealings but its definitely a positive sign!

Good to se CFO purchasing 25,000 shares at 270 having purchased 50,000 around xmas at 200 level.

"The company has a strong pipeline of new business in the US and anticipates new contracts being signed in late 2024" sounds positive; coupled with the extension of the Pennsylvania contract the announcement of additional state contracts could catalyse this to move to high 300s or low 400s hopefully.