Thalassa Holdings (update pre NWT trading update)4 Jun 2024 23:19
I missed this but worth sharing...
Newmark Security plc (NWT LN)
In 2023, NWT’s shares performed well, rising 127.2% from 33p/share to close 2023 at 75p/share.
THAL own’s 9.98% of NWT, which we believe has significant growth potential, particularly in the USA. NWT’s fiscal year- end is 30 April, such that 2024 results should be announced towards the end of September 2024. The Company had a soft first half, revenues declined 2%, but has indicated that several new Human Capital Management (HCM) ‘access control’ contracts should drive revenue growth in the second half of the year. At the prevailing market price of 83.5p/share, the Company’s market capitalisation is ~£7.8m, plus debt of
~£5.6m, giving an EV of ~£13.4m.
Based on trailing twelve-month numbers the stock does not look undervalued. However, looking out over the next few years, we see the potential for sustainable annual revenue growth of ~10%, and EBITDA margins rising from 6%/8% back towards 10% to 15%, or £3m to £4.5m, on £30m of revenue by 2028. Based on our estimates, the Company should be able to pay down debt at a rate of £0.5m per annum, or roughly £2m over the next 4 years. Whilst the EV/EBITDA multiple on 2023 EBITDA of £1.1m is 12.2x, we believe that this reflects investor anticipation for improved results, and that a more conservative EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x our £3m to £4.5m 2028 EBITDA estimate is more appropriate, which in turn would result in an EV of £24m to £36m, or an Equity value of £20.4m to £32.4m, or a share price target of £2.125/ share to £3.75/share (9.6m shares outstanding). Based on our estimates, we anticipate a potential 154.5% to 349.1% increase in the upside value of NWT’s shares over the next 4 years, or a potential compound annual return of between 26.3% and 45.6%, from the prevailing market price of 83.5p/ share.