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Its here ! But why release at 9.30am and not at 7am as everyone else does ?

HCM USA good. HCM ROW not so good (revenue down).

Safetell to be sold, but no cash expected.

It is expected the equity LTIP performance criteria will be revised. Excellent news. I am assuming that the equity LTIP includes the crazy cash LTIP which could see the company bankrupted by being met.

NO EPS mentioned and group net debt has risen by 2.7m to 4.8m . Not healthy and not good. Indicates that free cash flow was fairly rubbish during the year.

My comment is that when safetell is sold and given that 75% of HCM revenue is from USA that there is no reason to have a UK headquarters and a load of money could be saved by closing down the UK HQ and running the whole show from the USA. It would also be the right time for the Dweks to bow out.

It seems to me they are adopting the Amazon approach of lowering prices, to generate more business, rinse and repeat.

Whereas a few years ago FX was still relatively exotic, it is now baked beans standard stuff and the price/margin/fx price are the main things deciding where the business goes.

There are a lot of smaller FX companies, that cant compete - they will lose business or close in the next few years. I see both new and old medium/larger companies switching more to lower cost fxcompanies - like Wise !

Don't think there is anything new in this. Given recent history I would not be enthusiastic about any more acquisitions unless immediately earnings positive.

https://www.retail-week.com/people/interview-card-factory-boss-darcy-willson-rymer-on-growth-grit-and-greeting-cards/7048992.article

Allenbys/NWT are hosting a lunch at the Ivy City on 10th July. Anyone with a sizable shareholding (dabs, hedgehog ?) should be able to get an invite, along with other HNW, professional clients of Allenby etc.

I am quite surprised by this as it will provide investors with a chance to seriously question Marie and not accept mgmt speak and blandishments in response.

I also wonder why they are doing so much promotional work. A float / IPO of grovesnor ?

Would love to be there, but on the day before I fly back home to the far East from Madrid 😢 :-(.

Marie's presentation at Mello on Tuesday was bigged up in advance, but judging by the lack of trades following it, I would guess that Marie gave her normal speech that included lots of management phrases and nothing concrete about the future and no numbers attached to the 5 year plan to make anyone in the room take a longer look. Or any indication on how business this year is going according to the published forecasts. Oh. I forget. There are no forecasts.

So, the same sort of speech she gave 3 times towards the end of last year which also had no/little trades afterwards ! I do wonder why they do it.

Another dubious RNS headline. Why not be honest occasionally and say that group results were disappointing.

According to the RNS, access control and safetell had stronger revenues and HCM had a 14% increase in revenue, yet overall revenues are only up 3% (700k from 22.3m to 23m).

At least the issue was safetell was mentioned. Will anything happen ? Again, a takeover of partners has disrupted things. And saying sales are building in FY26 means nothing if 'stronger revenues' equals 3%.

Yes and no ! Many years ago, just after IOF had started, SQM, the 300 pound gorilla in the room, went through a period where they deliberately cratered the iodine price. They effectively dumped their Inventory - as well as being one of the lowest cost producers in Chile - over a few years, getting the iodine price down to below $20. Quite a few of the larger iodine players left the market, being unable to produce at that price point.

Iofina is nowhere near being big enough to tweak SQM tail, but if other producers start extra production at these price levels there is always the danger that SQM try to remove some of the capacity from the market by getting the price down below the new competitors cost of production.

Not saying it will happen again, but it did happen before....

Https://youtu.be/DNyXCzdzb1w?si=VVV8RbA4tBl-gijE

Excellent 20 minute presentation on why CARD is undervalued. Uses a variety of sources (stockopedia, simply wall street, card presentations etc). Hattip to Bloomberg

I also dont get it. They have picked up 120k shares in the last week.

Only thing i can think of is that someone isnt declaring when there holdings drop every %. It wouldnt be the first time. There is no sanction from the LSE or FCA. I seem to recall last year that a major holder (not in NWT) fessed up over 2 years late that they had been selling and hadnt issued a TR1.

Just watched the Monday Mello. Probably too soon for Marie to have taken on board all the comments from DAB below, but it was still disappointing. Quick comments as I am out most of the day.

Basically the same slides as from last week and nearly the same words. Nearly everyone watching (hundreds) will be brand new to NWT and need a reason to investigate further. Did they get that ? No.

1. Way too much verbiage and words as opposed to actual numbers. She needs to watch other companies present.

2. Mentioned the 5 year plan a fair bit but no mention at all of what the target was in terms of clocks, revenue, EBITDA, profits etc. it should be on a slide .

3. No mention at all of H1 and H2 and the difference between the two and the impressive growth rate. It was all 2022, 2023 stuff.

4. She missed a big chance during the questions when she had to mention that the biggest customer had been lost to be replaced by 3 others. She could have used that to mention how they had achieved growth despite losing the customer but seemed to try to brush it all off.

5. I am not sure why, given the reticence to give info why they are doing these presentations. Look at the share transactions on Tuesday or Wednesday after the presentation on Monday evening.

6. The end of H1 is only 2 weeks away. But not a mention of that. Can't think of any other company who wouldn't have made a comment about how H1 was going.

After 30 years of father and daughter I fear she is too set in her ways and only pays lip service to comments and criticism. She seems scared of putting estimates and forecasts in the market. Are all the employees the best, or is she unwilling to remove certain people (old timers) because her family has known them since time began ? Is it being run more as a family business ?

They need to get a brokers report out there. Edison would knock one up using the company figures.

Dabs,

Brilliant stuff. Perhaps they should hire you to make the presentations ! And, I suspect, do the presentation. You come over with a lot more passion and enthusiasm than I have heard from Marie. She puts too much mgmt speak and MBA stuff in both presentations and reports to really grab people.

The only thing I think you could have added is there targets for the 5 year plan, based on their options targets . I can't see any reason why they can't explicitly, as hedgehog did a few days ago, lay these out in the open so both potential, and current, investors can see where mgmt expects the company to be in 4-5 years time.

I really hope she takes on board what you say. And a few more RNS a year when things happen within the company would not go amiss. End of period is in a couple of weeks - let's hope we get a timely update.

Again, many thanks for your work. And also to hedgehog for putting together the financial numbers over the last few days. Really appreciated.

Did anyone listen to the NWT presentation at Mello last night ? Unfortunately I couldn't but will get a copy later this week.

Was it just a copy of last week's not very exciting presentation or did they actually include what the 5 year targets were ? I hope I am wrong. But no share action today so far.

I

True about the stretch targets. But these presentations are aimed at new investors who look at lots of different companies very briefly and who then decide on which one(s) to carry out further more detailed research on.

If Marie had given the figures in the way you have, that, I suspect , would make more investors at that presentation go home and take a longer look. Give the potential investors something that grabs them. Make them think they may have found a little known gem, especially with no practical broker coverage.

It is so frustrating !

Just watched the whole presentation and the questions.

When they talk about a 5 year plan, I expected to hear about some sort of targets. Revenue, employees, profits, debt, anything ! But there were no forecasts or numbers mentioned. All very wooly and nebulous. Effectively, no one has a clue and they can always claim to be meeting mgmt expectations . Poor. They didnt have many incisive questions in Tuesday meeting. Hope they might be put on the spot a bit more in the next couple of presentations.

1/3rd of revenue will be recurring was the only target that was mentioned.

HY end is in 3 weeks time. I am surprised they didnt give a hint as to how H1 is going. If it is going well then it would not have been a bad thing to have said that things were going well !

I do think there is a good story in there, but they seem loath to really explain it Not having any broker report or forecasts does not help there case.

Did anyone go to last night's presentation ? Did Marie manage to up her game, not speak like she is reading the telephone directory and miss out the management speak ? That might seem trivial, but it is very important when speaking at an event like last night with 4 other companies. She needs to be a lot less wordy and a lot more punchy. Is there no one else from the BOD who could try it ?

More so next Monday at Mello which will be a bigger - online - audience, and will have the ability to use her talk (if dull sounding ) to go and make a cup of tea.

Can anyone find any details of the targets (stretch or otherwise) in yesterday's annual report on their website ?

How stretching are these targets ? The report says they care about shareholders. Wonder if they kept a straight face when writing that !!

Using EBITDA is a real cop out as well.

Hard to make up. Thank you marie-claire for giving up all those options that were exercisable at 90p. But, whats this ? You have got a hold load more different options exercisable at 5p (!).

And an extra 1.1m bonus in 5 years time on top of normal salary and bonuses All according to a 5 year plan. But, you couldnt even disclose the next 6 months forecasts yesterday to shareholders !

Take the company private. You know it makes sense.

Dab,

Thank you very much for your expectations for FY25. Unfortunately, the company, despite previous comments by them, don't seem enthusiastic about saying anything meaningful.

The commentary in the results and the IMC presentation had far too much mgmt speak and meaningless phrases for my liking. It is also hard to imagine a more talking clock way of delivery - I don't get any passion or enthusiasm from the mgmt team. Mgmt expectations were being met. But what are those mgmt expectations? I was the person who asked the question about forecasts for H1 given we were more than 2/3 the way through H1. But nothing.

I have also asked whether the tax charge is a one off or will be repeated. No answer so far. How long ago did they know about that ? Are there other unforeseen (by me/us) issues that will tear there head in FY25. A proper estimate might well pick up on this.

As far as I can see, the only estimate in the market is yours :-). Which, again, I thank you for. But it isn't the right way to run a listed company :-(

Dab808, thanks for the update.

However, the reductions in inventory, and thus conversion to both cash and profits will probably be a one off, unless they still have excess inventory in which case it will be a 2 year one off (if you get me !). The underlying cash and profits increases will be a lot lower.

Again, the TU gave no indication of 2025 activity and new sales/contracts going forward. Lots of nebulous puff comments. I have written to them before about this, but they seem intent on running it as a private business.

Eh ? That was a real jam tomorrow sort of RNS, apart from the oil side. Many contracts have been awarded for PFAS treatment in the USA already. Yes, there should be a takeoff now as federal money and EPA guidance is now available.

But, the company was in the same position 6-7 years ago. Look at the news and projects on the MYX website. It really should do well, but the next 9 months will show whether mgmt really have the contacts, their eye on the ball and the drive to succeed.