Member Info for fft100

Medjed, I would agree that it shouldnt fold within a couple of weeks, but if, as you say, it will be 3 months then the 20m can disappear very quickly as suppliers and other creditors all try to get out first and avoid still being owed money when it does happen. Its a momentum thing and once it starts it will require a powerful force to stop it. Someone like Mike Ashley, except he could be the one trying to buy it if it goes into admin. He doesnt normally overpay !

Medjed,

Because Hilco are undoubtedly a secured creditor. The announcement said that the loan is dependent on the asset base (i.e. collateral). They will only be lending what they are fairly certain they can get back. There will be other secured creditors (HMRC etc), so they have to take a view on what others are owed before deciding how much they will lend.

The interest rate is 11.5% pluse base rate, which, to me, indicates that they were not overwhelmed with offers of money.

Actually, lots of things will have changed with the business in the last week or 2. Suppliers will have dried up, unless they are paid cash on delivery. Who would anyone issue SDRY with credit when the company may be wound up / put into administration in a few days ? When a company goes into admin, apart from a prepac being the usual outcome, then suppliers take a hit. They hope that if the business comes out of admin they will be able to get paid, but it wont be the full 100% and it will take months and months to see any of the money, which can cause problems for the supplier with their bank etc....

So, instead of the usual 30-60 days credit, SDRY will now not be getting any new stock unless cash is paid. That is instant shrinkage. And those who are waiting for payment from SDRY will be on the phone every day to the accounts department. How much is 30-60 days stock ?

Thanks. I think that the increase in margins is significant. Higher margins give the company more support and flexibility in case of any weakness within the market. The stronger the balance sheet the more likely to grow as other companies have issues.

Was there any mention of the bad debt levels ? The brokers had, in the past, always overstated those. Have they now been reduced in there current reports ?

That is dated H1 2019. pretty sure that Goldman have access to more recent projections :-)

Dab. Excellent stuff. They should have you writing the RNS :-). Don't understand why NWT didn't put the underlying figures in the RNS. The method they choose just causes confusion and the headlines (which most people don't get past) look awful and deter a further look, especially when there are 10-20 companies reporting every day that week.

Only 3 months to see if you are right. Though, if they choose the same reporting style as last year's TU most people will not be any the wiser as to actually what happened or why !

The lack of *any* forecasts in the broker report is also a turn off for potential new investors.

Still think they should get rid of the doors division. Too small and probably a mgmt distraction from the main business in the USA.

Allenbys note is out. Doesnt contain any forecasts - even for 2024 that ends in 3 months ! - and basically just restates this mornings RNS. It does mention the underlying profit figure for H1 of 1.1m as reported by Dabs below. It also says that no fund raising will be required.

The remaining pages of the note are basically a primer on NWT including case studies.

Apologies. not sure why that appeared again. Is it possible to edit/delete a post ?

Usual complete lack of meaningful info regarding current trading. It is now 3m into H2 and the commentary about H2 could have been written last October. How dabs can say that growth is continuing or that it will be a great H2 based on the H2 commentary is beyond me, unless he has had a private chat with them. I though NWT were supposed to be upping the info. This shows no change.

They treat it like a private company and should take it private

Usual complete lack of meaningful info regarding current trading. It is now 3m into H2 and the commentary about H2 could have been written last October. How dabs can say that growth is continuing or that it will be a great H2 based on the H2 commentary is beyond me, unless he has had a private chat with them. I though NWT were supposed to be upping the info. This shows no change.

They treat it like a private company and should take it private

With the lack of info about what is going on within all aspects of SAVE (not just SS), and the fact that this has been suspended for over a year, I get the feeling that this is turning into a crusade for AK. Which is not good.

With no news by the end of January, the shares should be unsuspended and full info on progress across the company released. It will then be upto the market to decide what the company is worth and whether it has been performing ok or is a laughing stock. It will also allow AK to step down or be ejected and maybe a private equity firm will see value and buy us out.

I do not want the shares suspended any longer. It is dead money that I could use elsewhere.

Dab, when talking to the company have you mentioned to them the importance of trading updates and other shareholder information ? For example, H1 ended at the end of October and apart from a one liner in the AGM statement there has been no update as to progress in H1. For many investors this makes it very difficult to commit funds and makes it seem they don't really want to be listed. Most other companies release relatively meaningful TU so why not NWT ? They must know how sales, cash etc are for H1 !

no rns. i do find that odd as a lot of time/water has passed since the last update. it is unusual to have a ii meeting like this. normally planned for after results or interims so everything can be discussed.

any presentation deck is either going to be very redacted or out of date, or there has been no change since the last broker note - which i think most would find disappointing and also negate any positive from the meeting.

only possible alternative i can think of is that bobby kalar is looking to reduce his holding, takes the people in the meeting inside - so he can say what he likes - and then some of the ii take % off him. would be unorthodox and wouldnt explain why no tu today but it is probably the only way he could give out updated info. and then after he has placed his shares with the ii a holdings rns and a tu appear. reading this back it looks like a load of ****** but i am mystified otherwise.

I wish someone could explain to me why, given the impressive marginal conversion of revenue to both cash flow and profits, the share price has just dropped a few pence.

What flaw are people picking up on to justify selling ? The numbers this week and in the presentation seem outstanding. But.....

This is the message (below) from Elizabeth in PR. If I understand it, we will be looking at a 65% (or 70% if wht increase) relief on any wht tax bill. So only a 1.66% increase in actual terms of wht goes from 65 to 70 Which seems fairly inconsequential . The first 25% can also be discounted by 65%. Hope I have that right !

Not quite. As you point out, our hedges are currently out of the money and we have to recognise the future forecast loss on those hedges (unrealised losses) as a liability on our balance sheet. However, hedging losses are deductible for EPL purposes so we would now expect to get 65% rather than 40% relief on the $6bn of unrealised hedging losses. In other words, were we to realise our hedging losses then that would reduce our profit subject to EPL which is captured in the note below regarding the available deferred tax asset in our HY Results.



At half year we recognised a deferred tax asset on our unrealised hedging losses of $2.6bn. Gross that up by 40% (CT+SCT) to get gross number for unrealised hedging losses which is $6.5bn; then expected future tax relief on that is 65% (CT+SCT+EPL) so the $2.6bn deferred tax asset related to the unrealised hedging losses becomes $4.2bn resulting in the additional $1.6bn of relief on the loss referred to below. As the EPL had not been enacted at HY, we only recognised the deferred tax asset of $2.6bn (40%) and disclosed via the note below the additional 25% deferred tax asset ($1.6bn) as per current accounting rules.

Not sure i understand that RNS. Obviously, it has been reported late. very late, but it isnt actually a buy or sell but due to the number of shares having increased.

But, does HBR own the Egdon shares or does Egdon own the HBR shares but given that Egdon only appears to have a few million in assets how does 8.85% of HBR fit in at all !

Either way, when they are completely out, the rebound should be fierce. I wouldn't understand the short if they are not selling noble. Not when every broker is increasing their target price

The Taconic 'takeover' is in the story below.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-latest-twist-in-its-epic-collapse-is-noble-group-s-second-restructure-in-three-years-1.1697305

Plebleens,

If I understand you, you are saying that while noble is selling (possibly distressed), Taconic is making money by shorting the stock. And Taconic knows when to short or not to short because it controls the Noble selling ? Wow !
If that is the case, presumably Taconic will close the short before noble finishes selling, as the two should balance out.

It would appear that Goldman Sachs raised there HBR target to 7.10 yesterday.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Harbour+Energy+PLC+%28HBR%3ALN%29+PT+Raised+to+GBP7.10+at+Goldman+Sachs/20662939.html

Hat tip to some one on advfn

Hi. Are we expecting a Trading Update now that Q3 has completed ?

Thanks.