Emmerson Plc Share Price (EML)

There are two things that make this arbitration claim unique (IMHO) and suggest to that a settlement would follow a failed Jurisdiction claim.

OCP (95% Government owned *) the worlds largest producer of Phosphate Fertilisers has a $13 Billion+ investment budget, mainly directed at increasing fertiliser production, so investing in Potash (and the associated products from the KMP process, e.g. Struvite) would fit this strategy well.

Emmerson and the Arbitration is of little interest in Morocco, if the Government settles or fights the claim is not an issue (unlike many arbitrations where someone in Government is at fault and causes a loss which falls ultimately on the tax payers).

* Until 2008 OCP was a department of the state (Office Chérifien des Phosphates [OCP] translates as Office of Phosphates) which was 100% responsible for every aspect of Fertilisers in Morocco.

I think that its probable that Morocco will settle this Arbitration Claim outside the ICSID if they loose on the question of Jurisdiction. Although, it seems sure to fail, the Jurisdiction ruling may be considered to be Morocco's best (or only) chance of defeating the Arbitration claim. The fact that Morocco have done this now, rather than at the end (as an attempt to Annul an unfavourable result), suggests that they are keen to get control of the asset in 2026. IMHO.

Spread has blown out a bit today 1.8 - 2.2 ?

Thats an interesting question.

Bifurcation rejection may be good for a quicker procedure, and usually we welcome that, and get it as a sign the tribunal more likely lean towards a positive decision for us. ( at the same time, till jurisdiction is not decided, that risk is always out there...)

The sp may evolve as the fun slogan says "gradually then suddenly" , but I think this case, from an investor point of view may be more interesting in a year (after other widely followed cases like PAT and AMM and EQX with 6-12 month lag. ) Apart from any possible early setrlement which chance I cant estimate .

No worries. What they decide will probably tell us something about how strong the panel is, and how much emphasis they place on efficiency and stamping out time wasting.