Member Info for JMUK26

Well you've commented lots on this share before AParky, and 95% is negative, so pretty difficult to believe you were ever invested here (if you were I'd have to question why on earth you would invest in a company where you despise the management so much). Suspension is probably best under the circumstances, as it signals that if the PPA isn't resolved soon, the project is gone for good, and takes market sentiment out of the negotiations. I don;t think cash is an issue, more that there is no business left is this doesn't get sorted. Lets hope the suspension is lifted soon and a deal is agreed.

Of course government hold ultimate power Eccles. while ANDE has significant sway due to its technical expertise and monopoly over the grid, it is ultimately an arm of the state. If the Paraguayan government decides a project is a national priority like a specific industrial investment it has the constitutional and executive power to force ANDE to adapt its rates and terms to align with that goal. I’m not saying they will, but of course they absolutely can.

For clarity though, EPP never applied for any project within this window 1. Window 2 is the one to watch for EPP, and that will kick off later this year I believe.

I think you slightly misinterpreted my post Sola. ANDE only care about the price of power to balance their books and provide enough ammunition to fund further upgrades to their grid given they are selling it all to power hungry data centres, and even running their own crypto mining assets, and can't keep up with demand. They do not care about sovereign economic health, that's the government job to worry about. If left to ANDE to negotiate, then there will be no agreement. However the government will obviously be in the room, and they hold ultimate power, they just need to find a way to frame the deal for better optics, or structure it in a way that it tapers up as Viletta get more profitable. If they can't find a deal that works for everyone, then Paraguay effectively remove any chance of major international investment anytime soon. This is the biggest infrastructure project investment they have ever had.

ANDE just want to secure the highest rate possible for each project which is understandable. Given data centres use a lot of power, and are set up extremely quickly it creates lots of cash for them so is an easy win over something more nuanced like Viletta. However on the downside it is putting massive pressure on their grid, so they have to make more money to reinvest to keep up with the demand. A vicious cycle really.

ANDE are not the government and not responsible for the long term critical thinking and policy planning for Paraguay, they only think about their segment. The government is not going to let ANDE dictate which projects are viable and which are not on PPA's alone, otherwise there will be even more damage to international reputation and capital flight. Data centres bring no critical infrastructure, no industry, no work, minimal taxes, whereas Villeta is the exact opposite. A presidential decree can be issued anytime to override ANDE, but government need to be seen to work with both Atome and ANDE and come up with a deal with better optics.

It is a political game of balancing immediate utility revenue against long-term sovereign economic health. I know which one I think will win ultimately.

They obviously did do their DD hence the condition of FID that the PPA was signed by end of July at the terms agreed, and only once all conditions met would funding be released. Anyway Oak Blokes take on the situation:

ATOM is in a pickle, down by two thirds. But is that an opportunity. Depends on who you think can stare the other one out first.

El Presidente de Paraguary vs little ATOM. I believe it’s the latter and here’s why:

The $665m funding package from the EIB, IDB and World Bank is with exactly the kind of investment Paraguay needs. Will it risk getting blacklisted by any of these global organisations when ATOM’s $0.66bn investment is a drop in the Ocean of potential future investment ($500bn) from organisations like the IDB can provide over the next 10 years. Trump is prioritising Latin America but he won’t tolerate funny business from them.

ANDE (the state electricity company) is currently receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in low-interest loans and direct grants from the EIB, IDB, and IFC to upgrade its network. If ANDE or the executive branch acts in bad faith and intentionally kills the flagship green project that these exact same banks which are funding ATOM’s project on the private side, it puts their entire public grid infrastructure funding package in severe jeopardy.

What’s the alternative? Paraguay can’t use the electricity domestically and sells it to Brazil at dirt cheap prices. ANDE would lose out if calling the bluff leads to a collapse of the project. Can it do anything but collapse if they change the terms?

Paraguay’s agricultural lobby is powerful. They are deeply embedded inside the ruling Colorado Party, which has controlled Paraguayan politics for nearly 80 years. Many senators, congressmen, and cabinet ministers are large-scale landowners themselves. Replacing imports with home-grown fertiliser (which has rocketed up in price in 2026 remember) with a home-produced “net zero” label gives them an incentive to pressure the government to give in to ATOM.

I thought likewise of your dismissive response 99icecream, but lets move on. It's good news that can only help the case.

The timing of the drop is compliance, but the existence and deployment of the patent itself is 100% a strategic legal maneuver to maximize leverage. Its just one that got rolling a few years ago in anticipation of what may come. Good decision.

Emmerson filed this patent in late 2023. If you look back, that is exactly when the local environmental committees in Morocco started severely stalling and kicking back the project’s environmental permits over water consumption and waste disposal. Emmerson designed the KMP tech specifically to bypass Morocco’s environmental roadblocks, and they filed the patent because they knew the permitting battle was turning toxic. Emmerson is immediately shouting about the approval in their RNS to maximize leverage and is absolutely a legal manoeuvre to further substantiate their claim regardless of early settlement or going all the way. The approval timing is fortunate as you say though.

Clever legal move.

If Morocco wants that specific mine to be environmental, world-class, and highly efficient, the patent forces a settlement (potentially much lower i.e to cover sunk costs) and then a future royalty/JV stream.

If Morocco decides to brute force the asset using different technology, the patent serves as leverage to maximize the final cash compensation payout awarded by the ICSID tribunal.

I think it is a good move eitherway but leans more towards trying to agree early settlement due to the leverage they have.

Personally I don't see it going South. Its a huge project that nobody will at this point want to fail. What ANDE are requesting isn't unreasonable really. They just want a deal which assures that the power supplied to Atome is not being subsidized by them, so minimally running at break even. I think that is fair enough, so some sort of tapered setup where tariff is fixed at the start and then tapers into inflation linked or something would be reasonable. If that squeezes margins too much (given green fertiliser will have higher cost) then Paraguay have a decision to make on how much they want the project. I think a deal will be done, and hopefully that still works for everyone. If it can be sorted within a few months hopefully not too much of a delay on the initial programme and a small blip in the grand scheme of thins in a few years. I have a high average so I'm holding out as I think that a deal is more likely at this point than no deal and crystallizing a big loss now.

I don't follow your logic here Rob. If a deal is struck to resolve this, it's highly unlikely to be on better financial terms for us, given that the tariff/union issue itself is the friction point. My take is they will agree slightly higher or frozen initial rate during ramp up and it will taper up from there.

Also, the project ownership structure is fixed by the JV and project financing agreements, it isn't going to change or give ATOME a bigger equity slice unless one of the major backers pulls out completely. How do you see a labour / tariff dispute translating into more equity for Atome?

Why would Atome get a bigger piece of the project rob?

As far as I can see there is no new news regarding the situation. Probably just volatility today given the potential binary outcome we are now left with.

Suggest we all just filter Knight_Rider, like I have just done. Will make the board a more pleasent experience for all as he's bringing nothing to the table but lazy uneducated attempted rage bait. He needs to learn that dilution is not in itself bad, its how the money created during that dilution is allocated that matters. I get it if the company had a 1bn market cap and coud get cheap loas that it could pay off with free cash flow that this woudl be a bad setup but he has seemingly missed that we are a microcap with no cashflow lol. He doesn't need to keep warning us about dilution.

Knight Rider, is clearly a bit "green" and is incapable of understanding what the below posters are trying to explain. Does Knight Rider want EPP to loan the money (and therefore be paying interest now)? Did he expect a JV where we give up lots of the project (major dilution)? Did he expect a huge raise? I'm not sure what he is getting at. Of course what EPP have done is by far the best way.

Knight_Rider - Given EPP have a market cap of just £19m, what is your preferred method for funding FEED that doesn't dilute investors?

Are you expecting backers to take all the risk and do it for free? Plant a magic money tree? Genuinely interested in your response, or whether you are just trolling and will ignore this post.

Your concern shouldn't be the dilution, it should be, are the company using the money they are raising through the ATM wisely and is their capital allocation good? If it is, and in the future it will pay off in multiples even accounting for the dilution, then what more can you ask for.

Anyone expecting a regular dividend when the company is winding down and needs to pay off debt is naive. This was surely always going to be the plan, pay of debt first and then pay special dividends upon realizations.

Laurie, off-site MMC is all about keeping the factory busy full-time. With high UK costs, any downtime is a killer, as proven with the demise of L&G recently.

Even if ECOB eventually gets a BBA certificate, they then have to find a UK funding partner for a JV factory. I just don't see anyone taking that risk here unfortunately. Between our broken planning system and housebuilders holding land banks, it’s incredibly difficult to guarantee the constant volume needed to keep a production line running here.

Chasing the UK right now is just a waste of time and money imo. The cash and energy are far better spent on the international side where costs are much lower and industry much less regulated. Until they have a proven established product and process, the UK is a distraction for me.

And btw, like I said before I am a specifier, and I have requested the technical info from the company, and never received a response. Lots of potential opportunities will arrive via email from a contractor or specifier interested in the product, so the company need to get on top of its comms asap.

TSSZ - not a chance a huge deal like this is going to be sorted over a weekend lol. They have to agree the new rates, and then re-check FID, and ensure everyone is still happy to proceed. That is not going to happen overnight. Best we can hope for is a deal in principle fairly soon, and then it may be a few months to actually finalize it.