Member Info for JMUK26

Why do you hate consolidations? Makes no difference.

You are not missing anything TooEarly. By all metrics, on my share filters, it consistently pops-up as one of the most undervalued listed companies. I think the biggest problem is the market cap and therefore the volume of trades which pushes the spread up and getting in and out isn't as easy as most would like. They weren't aggressive enough with the last share buy-back, but increasing this to 1m is a real sing of intent. They actually need to do it though, not just say it...

I've emailed regarding clarification on cash-flow and going concern. The RNS last week did little to reassure investors on this, but it also didn't highlight any particular concerns in this regard either. The market has made it's mind up and gone into full panic mode however.

A decent director purchase would reassure investors no end.

Sorry keep making that mistake! One day Rodney.

Well the SP hasn't dropped to the bargain entry price I was hoping for (circa £1) so I'm in with an average of around £1.90 which would still suggest a very cheap entry point against the likely claim value. As you say Magoo, next step will be constituting the arbitration which I expect to be anytime from August-Jan. SoC will follow after that within 3-6 months normally. Plenty of SP catalysts over the next year, so hold tight.

A bit of a corker of an update and not in the good way. The terrible run continues.

On has to wonder at this stage whether this is purely bad luck (which the historical performance would suggest it is) or whether capital allocation decision during scale-up were sub-standard. I suspect and hope it's just the former but only time will tell.

Net debt has absolutely ballooned.

And due to the tax confusion in the US, fund 3 has been paused awaiting further clarification.

You couldn't make this up. The SP has been absolutely ravaged this morning, which is possibly a little unfair on top of the already severely depressed SP, but the management need to step up and start delivering for shareholders very soon, as they have achieved absolutely zilch since listing and shareholder patience is wearing very thin.

As a relatively new shareholder here, it's what I would call a special situation stock, and one that appears to be well under the radar at the moment, even of those that look for these opportunities. There are a number of things going for it in my opinion and I expect a slow but decent re-rate over the next few years:

1. Various EU countries are opening up to the idea of nuclear, so that may have had some impact on the recent share price in terms of general sentiment, and in anticipation that there could be a deal to be done under this government or minimally the next one. The recent blackouts are going to cause a re-think across the board and all options will be being reviewed. However I don't think there is much value attributed to this happening personally.

2. Cash makes up a substantial portion (approx. 32%) of the current market cap. Cash burn is minimal offering many, many years of runway. This offers a huge safety blanket with no risk of a raise and subsequent dilution which is often the major concern with these type of situations.

3. There is a very strong arbitration case of effective expropriation. Over time as the arbitration progresses through the milestones, I would expect a steady re-rate. The next one being the statement of claim/memorial which could come relatively soon. The cash adjusted market cap in relation to the arbitration claim amount is on the higher side compared to peer group at the same stage, but none of those have the cash and therefore stability that Berkely do, so the premium is well justified. It means that the overall gain might not be as spectacular a company with no cash, but the rise won't be anywhere near as rocky. I'm still expecting a substantial re-rate from today's SP before the award decision which should come within the next few years.

4. The arbitration is self-funded which means any award is all Berkeleys (subject to any taxes). No discount needs to be applied for a litigation funder. Whilst having litigation funding (no win - no fee) is seen as a good thing as it means the case has been well vetted, if you have nearly A$80m in the bank and nothing to do with it, it makes sense to self fund and appoint the best lawyers you can.

Long term holders may be able to pick some holes in my thoughts, so it would be good to hear from you.

Having held Anexo shares for many years, I grew sick and tired of their neglect towards shareholder and got out at a loss around today's price. They rejected a 150p bid from dBay just a few years ago, and look at where they are now. The owners are constantly looking for ways to sell down their major holdings, and every time the share gets a bit of a momentum they would hit the sell button and drag it right back down. They have cancelled the dividend because they think that the sale will go through either way so the money may as well be in their pocket than yours. They think the company will look less attractive without it and therefore more likely to go through. They shouldn't be paying a dividend anyway with their terrible balance sheet.

Lets see if the BoD have the cojones to not recommend this offer. It is pretty poor, and only looks acceptable in the very recent context as the SP had for some reason unjustifiably crashed to 30p, and the SP was not aligned to fundamentals. It's purely lack of interest and liquidity that has seen this slow descent of the SP. Harwood are chancing it, so lets hope the BoD looks after shareholders if it comes to it. The last time Harwood were sniffing about 5 years ago the SP was a little lower, but their offer would have been somewhere around this offer level as it was rejected. Profitability and fundamentals are now much stronger yet the SP and offer hasn't risen to reflect this. Hold to see the outcome.

Yep, I was a kape shareholder and this is a similar scenario. Really annoying!

Well now we know why the SP has been moving upwards in the last week or so. Another leaky AIM ship.

Having bought in at around 65p a few years ago, this does not offer good value for long term holders, and I'd be surprised if the institutional investors think this is enough. Hopefully there will be a counter-offer or a little more on the table. SP has not reflected the companies performance over the last few years and 50p is too cheap for me. Will continue to hold to see what pans out here.

On the face of it it seems a bit of immaterial news regarding packaging, but at the end they state:

"The agreement strengthens Transense's US supply chain for ASIC production and defence/aerospace applications. It is expected to generate a substantial new revenue stream for the business based on forecast end customer demand."

Sounds very promising, and not something they would likely say unless there was visibility of deals starting to come through.

Yes, all just healthy churn of shares and nothing to be worried about.

The claim of 1.6bn net of taxes is probably not spelling out the full claim value in layman's terms. I'm no expert in this but if India's corporation tax is 40% for foreign companies, the full claim value is around 2.6bn which is probably higher than many anticipated. Usually companies announce the claim inclusive of tax, so we have to do the discounting but PAT/LIT have made it easy for us. I'm sure many will be missing this point today.

The RNS will presumably need to follow as soon as is practicably possible following confirmation of receipt of the SoC, otherwise if there are any major movements in share price in between submission and releasing an RNS then somebodies head should roll. They would have a difficult time defending market manipulation. May well be submitted after closure of LSE today and RNS'd before trading on Monday so nobody gains advantage even if they find out.

Thanks for pointing out. Only being reported from one outlet and no response from LCM as yet. I have contacted LCM and asked them to provide a statement asap. Investors obviously panicking and selling without knowing the full story.

What you thinking Deckchair. Hold all the way to decision in the hope of a bumper payday and retire off into the sunset, or de-risk along the way and accept potentially a lower overall payback to yourself? If you don't want to share absolutely no problem, just interested in the approach of probably the most active member on this chat, who probably has a decent wedge ted up in the stock.

Still undecided myself. I held GRX for nearly 5 years, they won the case, but bar a very rapid spike and then decline within a couple of hours after the win announcement (when I wasn't around typically) the SP hasn't reacted well to the win, its basically flat-lined as the market must have hoped for a larger payout. Still doubled my money but for the risk taken it should have worked out better. If i'd have sold earlier on when market cap came to around 20-25% of claim value (and after rumors of a win) I'd have made much more. It really is a bit of a gamble as to when to cash in providing the story remains positive.

Ahah makes sense. Oversight on my part. Well hopefully one day £1 for you guys.

Ferrisc, are you aware that you are investing in what will likely be a very volatile share? Just because it is £2.30 now, does not mean it will not drop well below today price at some point. It's not hard to understand.

Pretty sure it will be rns’d as soon as submitted. Not sure we’ll wake up to an rns, might be anytime during trading hours.

Again, only my opinion, but knowing the Prairie and Panthera cases well, I can provide some clarity on the below statements.

GRX did multiple raises over the last 5 years. Some for working capital some for acquisitions and exploration. All in I think my holding was diluted about 25% over the course of holding for 4 years, so not disastrous. The SP certainly dropped back at each raise but recovered well each time.

PAT have done 2 or 3 raises over the last 2 years for working capital and to show some effort at exploration of a mine which was required in order to keep the license. One fundraise drove the price circa 40% down within a matter of weeks at a similar stage to here. The latest fundraise was a bit of a naughty one to let institutional investors in at a discount before SoC, but SP has recovered well as market thinks PAT are now fully funded for the duration of the claim. However, I suspect there will be one or two more yet.

Emmerson state in their RNS that "All the legal costs in relation to the matter as well as a significant portion of G&A costs are to be funded through the $11.2 million litigation funding facility confirmed in January 2025.". My take is that they will inevitably fundraise at some point to plug the gap particularly if the SP has a good run like it had done recently. I doubt they will get through the case without multiple fundraises which need to be accounted for in your valuations. How large they will be and what affect they have on the SP is anyone's guess, but generally the discount is sizeable.