Member Info for JMUK26

People could have traded out a month ago for the same price without this crazy spread though? I think it will have to rise up again to equate market cap to cash in hand once things are a little clearer.

I'm with you Mark - completely baffled. We are now back at the SP we were at BEFORE the announcement that we have been awarded £252m. I'm a long term holder here and whilst the award was not as much as I was hoping for, it is still a huge amount of money and what we receive will be well in excess of the current market cap. Strange reaction and probably time for a top-up. I anyone else can shed any light it would be appreciated, but I think its just a very strange market at the moment, and once it started going down, people snatch and sell whatever holding they have left as they don't want to keep waiting.

Well obviously it's valued based on the payout that is to come? They had a very strong case, and were fully financed by LCM who have a 95% success rate so the market cap creeps up the closer a decision comes based on how likely success is. I don't attribute much value to the current assets and obviously they are not worth 100m if that is what you mean? The current market cap is simply too low given impending award. The market is sleeping.

Hi Rider, the info you require is all contained within the RNS as below extract. There is no route to appeal and the decision is final. Poland may try and use some delaying tactics, but ultimately it will cost them, as we receive interest from now until full payment is received. The day before the announcement the SP was at 35p, on news of a company making £252m award we are now sat at just 42.5p a paltry 21% increase, and only the average SP over the last couple of years. Shocking market reaction in my opinion and priced as if there is a good chance we won't receive the cash (which simply won;t happen). Hold patiently for a re-rate.

"The Claim was brought under the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law Rules (UNCITRAL) and the Awards are final and binding on the parties. The UNCITRAL Rules do not provide for an appeal procedure i.e., grant no explicit authority to a panel to reconsider its award. Under the UNCITRAL Rules, either party may, within 30 days of receiving an award, ask the Tribunal to correct any computational, clerical or typographical errors in the award, issue an interpretation of the award or render an additional award on any claims omitted from the final award. These procedures do not allow either party to request that the Tribunal reconsider the merits of its decision.

If a party believes that an award ought to be "set-aside" or "annulled", then that party must apply for relief from a court where the arbitration was seated, which would be the national courts of England and Wales for the BIT claim and Singapore for the ECT claim. Poland has 28 days from the date of the BIT Award and three months from receiving the ECT Award to apply for set aside of the respective Awards, which can only be set aside under limited circumstances. It is important to note that a "set-aside" motion is different from a general "appeal" since a set-aside motion can in general only relate to a lack of jurisdiction on the part of the Tribunal or procedural unfairness, unlike an appeal, where the actual merits of a case might be revisited by a court. In summary, Poland cannot initiate any post award proceedings to re-examine the Tribunal's decision on the merits of the case. The threshold to succeed on a "set-aside" motion in either the Singapore or English domestic courts is high, with courts in both jurisdictions rejecting set-aside applications in the vast majority of cases."

Hi gallmat, I didn’t mean you, I meant muted market reaction. The market is a strange beast. Not long ago this sat at 60p on the hope we might get an award somewhere near the amount claimed, but most would likely accept that the amount claimed is rarely awarded. We are now at nearer 40p with a huge influx of cash on its way and the market doesn’t seem all that interested. Doesn’t really add up.

The company are already well funded to tide themselves over whilst awaiting payment so doubt they will settle for a lower amount for quicker payment.

A fairly muted reaction here to the news. Although many - including myself were hoping for a higher award - a successful award was not guaranteed, and an award at 2.5 times opening market cap is not to be sniffed at.

My take is that there should be some upward movement on this. Xlm sold the majority of their business recently and basically became a shell company. Their market cap shot upwards over 100% to equate to the expected cash inflow. I don’t see why this would be any different.

If we take £250m award and deduct management bonus (say £15m), corporation tax (say £35m as difficult for us to know what % of claim was based on lost income or capital claim and if any is due at all), current market cap of £132m, and finally say £33m litigators charge (£13mx2.5 historic performance) then we still have market cap upside of approx £35m just to equal cash. That’s 25% upside from here.

Will be interesting to see how the market reacts over the coming days and weeks, but I think the news has been underplayed today.

Just noticed the RNS issued 23rd September. 4No fatalities in the last 2-3 years. Pretty shocking!

Gallmat, in response to your earlier query, you may already be aware of them but could take a look at Indiana resources, rockhopper, greenX for recent examples.

Am I missing something geng? What is the massive news and why would it mean a settlement is near?

Arbitration is notoriously slow. However long you think it will reasonably take, double it generally in my experience. These arbitration panels constantly miss their own mandated deadlines and companies may not even confirm when a hearing takes place, only once it is all done and dusted, never mind confirming a tribunal has been constituted. The panel have not even managed to sit in a room or on a Teams call to constitute the tribunal for god sake, that's how slow things are! I closely follow LIT and various other mining companies that have gone through similar processes, and none of them are wrapped up within a couple of years unfortunately. LIT are showing the very opposite in fact, the log jam in courts is getting work and case duration increasing. I'm braced to sit here until 2027, and even then we may not have a decision, but I'd hope the SP is materially higher than it is now, providing PAT do not do multiple large raises. The noose around the neck at the moment is, no claim value announced, and no solution to dilution yet. Lets hope we are all rewarded for our patience.

Strange update. Suggests a slow start to the year, but no real explanation as to why, but then states that they are still confident of meeting full year targets (how and why?). Either poorly worded, or they are just hopeful of a better H2, the market thinks the latter clearly. Lets hope that there isn't yet another profit warning on already reduced targets. I was really hoping SDI had finally turned the corner..

This is becoming increasingly frustrating to hold, but the SP depreciation is now so much that it is a bottom of the drawer job and just hope they commercialize successfully as soon. The SP was on a bit of a run up after the last trading update which suggested commercialization was imminent and also stated the following which led many investors to believe that there was just about enough cash to get through until revenue started coming in:

"Cash flow forecasts prepared up to 30 September 2025, show sufficient cash resources to enable the funding of working capital, completing the testing of the SABER tool fleet and the completion of the build of the initial set of SABER tools in the fleet to enable the generation of revenue from this new technology. The Directors performed sensitivity analysis on the going concern assumptions to determine whether plausible downside scenarios which include cash conservation, leave the company with sufficient headroom. The cash forecasts indicate that the Group has adequate financial resources to continue to trade for the foreseeable future and meet its obligations as they fall due."

To then go and do a fairly substantial raise a month later is a disappointing, particularly at 5p, when the SP the day before was around 9p! They were very careful not to suggest a placing was imminent, when clearly the wheels were well in motion.

The quarterly report where they have said exactly the same thing over and over for 2 years? Yes I’m well aware. Shareholders need details of what is going on. As I said rockhopper released fairly regular updates. If grx are legally bound not to then fair enough. I would say the sp has tanked regardless of your thoughts. We had an sp of over 60p not so long ago, we are now heading down to nearly half that. It’s been a slow but persistent trickle due to boredom.

The SP is in complete freefall purely due to lack of updates from the board to give even an ounce of confidence things are progressing and a decision is due at some point. Most companies in disputes keep the shareholders up to date as key milestones are crossed (see Rockhopper for example) but we've had absolutely nothing here for coming up 2 years! Are the company truly obliged to make zero comment?

Crazy market reaction to today's brilliant results. Revenue flat but they are optimizing the business and improving margins but by year end revenue will almost certainly be up reading the RNS on H2. Cash is set to rise to over 9m which is nearly a third of market cap. That gives them a lot of fire power for acquisitions. Expected a 15-20% gain today, but you just cannot anticipate how many traders are willing to buy on a Friday and take a minuscule profit to drive the price right down and take the momentum away. AIM is a bit of a shambles currently. This share deserves a good gain today and companies just aren't being recognized for their good work at the moment.

Yes, terrible news.

However, it hasn’t provided a buying opportunity strangely. Dropped just a few percent, when it had gained over 10% in just the last couple of weeks. Suspect it will drop more yet.

I'm surprised this hasn't edged higher over the last couple of months, but I think the market is waiting for H2 performance to see if they are truly back in profit and meeting broker forecasts. If they do achieve them, SP will presumably lift off and it's unlikely to be under £2 for long. Using various screeners, this is objectively very cheap (one of the cheapest listed companies inc smallcaps), considering the cash pile and current forecasts. All eyes on whether they meet those forecasts.

I made a small top-up today on this one. It's largely tread water for the last year, but surely only a matter of time before it bursts upwards. The cash pile in relation to market cap is huge, which -as you say- brings the PE down very low for what is a quality growing company with lots of potential. It's priced like a fairly shoddy indebted company currently which I suspect is purely down to the fact that it can be fairly illiquid due to low trading volumes. More aggressive buy-backs, or putting that cash pile to use in order to fuel growth may spike some interest and volume.

Net debt up on year prior and flat over 6 months. This company just cannot seem to get the cash flow to pay the debt down, which is what is ultimately making this uninvestable for most. If that ever turns and debt starts to prioritized and meaningfully chipped away at this will re-rate, until then it will flounder as it has done for a few years now.

What a silly comment topsharepicks. How can you define what is reasonable timeframe with zero information on why it hasn’t already been released? No chance the valuation is released in the next 2 weeks, otherwise it would have been released with the NoA. Doesn’t affect the arbitration at the moment so suspect within the next 6 months.