Member Info for JMUK26

Agree with everything that you are saying Rivaldo. On ADVFN the usual members are saying that Mike did a terrible job and only did what any other CEO in his position did using cheap finance for the last 10 years and that performance wasn't extraordinary. I would say that is complete nonsense as each company had access to this said "cheap" finance and did not come close to matching SDI's performance both on financial metrics and SP. He did a really good job, but like you say he may not be the man to properly structure the business and get them cross selling and working well together.

I think if it's a categorical no from India, and no room for reasonable negotiation, then PAT won't need to wait for 6 months I wouldn't think. That's just a advisable and reasonable time to allow for negotiation, and if you can't meet in the middle after that period of time, arbitration is probably going to be the only solution.

PK73 it all hinges on what constituted means and maybe to a lawyer it is clear. In plain English I would take it that it means a tribunal is undertaken/complete. However having followed a few of these over the last few years, it never gets done that quickly so I think it probably means that a tribunal will be formed, but it could actually be held much later on.

Thanks private punter. I’ll keep a close eye on this one as it was one of my favourites but would need sp to drop a fair bit more for re-entry to make up for the risk imo. They have had unexpected write downs on the last 2 updates having said on both occasions that trading is in line with expectations so I’d take whatever they say with a punch of salt. I do want them to succeed, but the comms have been misleading over the last year or so which saw me reluctantly exit. Mike was the critical cog for me but I look forward to your write ups to see how it pans out here and if you are still comfortable holding. Appreciate your website btw, always a good read.

Very surprised it has only dropped 5% so far. Needs a trading statement alongside this RNS otherwise it seems that they are hiding something. CEO's don't just quit with no notice, he's been pushed and shareholders really need to know why unless it is just for the general underperformance over the last year or so, even then I'd expect him to work a handover period.

Glad I got out of here when I did. Immediate departure of the ceo with no notice is never a good sign particularly one as critical as Mike. Let’s see if they kitchen sink the next trading update which I suspect is highly likely. Maybe some problems afoot.

Sorry to break it to you but arbitration itself won’t be done and dusted by may this year unfortunately. I think constituted means once a request for arbitration is submitted, it is effectively approved and booked in within 2 months, but could be heard say a year later than that. Similarly once the hearing is complete we won’t get a result for over a year most likely. The deadline in the international agreement I believe is for the panel to finish gathering what they need from each party and to make a decision. See rockhopper or prairie for how long these things take. We’ve got at least 2 more years here most likely if it goes all the way. That’s why the share price is so low as people are impatient and there is potentially money to be made elsewhere in the meantime.

Suspect they’ll get a little longer than 28 days to agree how to proceed with a potentially £1bn + claim :) I might be wrong but I’d imagine a few months most likely. With these things I tend to think what a reasonable time frame would be and then double it and it will still probably take longer.

Yes potentially, just to delay payment should Prairie be successful. Ultimately though it will only add to the total return providing any decision is upheld. Looked through the Rockhopper RNS timeline and I must say their communications with shareholders to keep everybody up to date in the process, was much much better than GRX. The board here have announced arbitration, announced that the case was heard and a result was pending, and that's literally all we've had. I was expecting a decision Q4 2023 - Q1 2024 as an estimate so we could get news anytime now.

A decent return, but you'll kick yourself if a successful outcome announcement drops in the next few weeks : ) which would be typical. I'm still fully invested here and holding on till announcement which I hope won't be too much longer. It is dragging on a bit though and you may be able to nip out make a return elsewhere and nip back in if you like. On the flip side I'll kick myself for not taking any profit if it's an unsuccessful outcome.

EJT7777, for what reason would PAT try to drum up interest for people to buy more shares in the company? All it would do is create a raft of inexperienced herd following new buyers, and a raft of sellers getting out for a quick buck. Whether the share price is 6p or 10p at the moment is largely immaterial unless you are looking to trade, and PAT aren't going to accelerate that volatility by trying to stir up unnecessary interest in the company. Only announcement of the size of claim, and submittal and lodging of arbitration (if India presumably don't fold beforehand) will really move the SP.

Seemingly not which is a bit strange, as I don't remember this being acknowledged in any RNS. Last year an interim dividend was mentioned in the interims and paid early December after a short ex-dividend period so seemed a bit last minute. Given one hasn't been mentioned this year, I suspect we aren't getting it, but the company should explain why unless I've missed it. If it's to save cash for an acquisition then fair enough but communicate it.

Well it’s because they’ve just confirmed that they can’t currently find an efficient way of paying said dividend? Might need to go down the share buy back route with a much smaller token dividend.

Nothing on GreenX yet Mickey. All gone very quiet but a decision was due anytime from Q3 2023 to Q2 2024 as an estimate based on previous cases. Share price trending slightly down in recent months as bored investors bail out. I'm still sat on my hands awaiting that trading halt RNS - would be nice to hear before xmas providing it is good news!!

Hi Polinvest, think you misunderstood, I said why didn't they buy AFTER these results? If they had a grasp of the financials they would have known that the market wouldn't be happy with another profit warning so could have got them cheaper. My worry is that it's because they didn't see it coming given they gave an on target update just 2 months ago, so they no longer have a good grasp of the financials. After 5 years of holding I reluctantly sold yesterday due to the misleading updates they have put out twice in a row now. A solid return overall, but sat on my hands too long and trusted the management to deliver long term. It's still at a premium to a lot of other decent stocks, so may have further to fall yet.

Don't know why they didn't wait until after results to purchase, because they were definitely to reassure the market. Worryingly it suggests they thought they were on target or exceeding market expectations and didn't have a full grasp on the actual financials.

After a good few years of holding SDI, I'm now becoming a little frustrated with management. Every business can have rough patches or growing pains, but as long as that is communicated effectively and transparently each shareholder has the opportunity to assess and evaluate and do what they wish with their shares. At the moment, the management are saying one thing and the business is reporting something else, so potentially some blind optimism is going on. It was only in September that they updated that market to expect results in line with market expectations. Only 2 months later we are being downgraded 20-25% if the revised target is to be believed. How did management not foresee this just 2 months ago? We had the same on results day with Monmouth seeing a huge write-down after SDI had again previously confirmed that they would meet market expectations. I think management need to be more realistic with targets, and be transparent about any issues within the business. Repeated surprises like this really do not help with market sentiment towards their ability. The mark down this morning is probably fair, but I will continue to hold for now as I think it will recover somewhat.

Difference being that Ryanair are the cheapest carrier around with customers still opting to fly with them rather than paying more for essentially the same experience with slightly better customer service. Dr Martens are supposed to be an iconic premium brand, so shouldn't be getting negative review on trust pilot and not dealing with them. Customers with a bad experience are unlikely to return to Dr Martens unlike service companies like Ryanair. My wife purchased a pair of Dr Martens brogues last year and after a year of very minimal use the sole had started separating. She took it into the local store and was basically told to go away, and that a repair would cost her over £80 at which point they went straight in the bin and she will likely never return as a customer. I still have a relatively new pair and we shall see how long they last - I suspect not as long as the previous ones. The company is clearly in a bit of a mess and have taken their eye of customer care and quality.

Thanks 1909, I suspect the claim will be more than that which increases the multiple further than the 66x mentioned. However that would be a conservative claim value for calculation purposes. Good point, suspect you are probably right in regards to a fund raise being done once the SP has risen, hopefully on the back of a surprisingly large claim value which gathers some interest. Rusoro isn't a company I've followed but a 20x gain for leaving some shares in the bottom draw and letting things play out isn't bad going. If that happens here I won't be complaining but ideally it'll reach a solution a lot quicker. I'm braced for a 3-4 year wait personally.

Same Trendz, been holding for a few years now. All I've seen in that time is a trickle down in share price where my inaction has meant I'm now definitely in for the long term, as I can't justify selling at these levels. It's very cheap and certainly not a basket case company but I don't think management have helped themselves at times. They were consistently selling shares and putting the brakes on the SP for a couple of years after listing due to that, before then selling a huge chunk to DBAY, only to then reject the inevitable takeover offer from DBAY which looks to have been a bad choice given where management have taken the SP today. Then there was the much anticipated VW claim which amounted to nowhere near what was muted due to out of court settlement (why settle out of court when there was literally no chance of losing). And, debt was previously rising in line with profits and was manageable but over the last couple of years it has really ballooned. The SP will revert to a more reasonable level only when management get a grip of it, start reducing these case back-logs, bringing in cash and paying down debt substantially. It is critical in this higher interest environment. If debt goes up any more on next results / update I'll probably cut my losses. Hopefully they can start to turn this around though.

Not sure what other people are hoping for, but the way I see it is the last RNS didn't tell us anything we didn't already know. I think the SP will only really re-rate once we have official confirmation of arbitration AND a claim value. Until then it will probably bob along from 3-10p. A comparable company - Prairie Mining had a market cap of around 30m after it had announced litigation and the claim amount of circa £750m i.e. market cap was approx 4-5% of total claim value. If something similar occurs here we might be looking at a market cap of around £40m, with the current market cap being approx £8m so plenty of upside even if you want to get out early. Suspect we'll see less here given market sentiment, unless appetitive for risk changes next year. I also think the market may be expecting a fund raise here which could be highly dilutive unless SP picks up. Hopefully it would be done when the SP is a little higher if necessary.