Member Info for JMUK26

Taser - I share your frustration at the SP performance, and agree with some of your concerns. However, what I think you are missing is that the share has historically always been very expensive / overvalued, having a PE of +50 was not unusual a few years back. Post covid the SP dropped and has stayed around the £4 mark ever since, give or take 20%. I think it is now at a very reasonable valuation, whereas it should probably demand a bit of a premium given the very stable and increasing financial performance. As with most AIM shares, they just do not gain any traction due to lack of volume. Large share buy-backs, and then cancellation is one way to combat this.

You might be right regarding entry price but these things swing pretty quickly. GRX for example was sat around 17p for quite a while, and dropped to something like 6p on a placing, and after months of nothing happening. PAT was similar peaked at around 17p, and dropped to something like 4p after a placing and months of nothing happening. Might not get back under £1 but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it did, there will certainly be cheaper entry points than today's SP I'm sure of that, most likely after a placing and people getting bored after months on end of nothing happening.

Seems like they have acquired another and it’s a biggie. Interested in what the rns will say in the morning. We are about to be diluted, let’s hope the deal is worth it.

Very strange that Emmerson have quoted a claim figure in the RNS at this early stage. Their independent valuation is sort of irrelevant as it will need to be independently assessed and a valuation report provided, which will ultimately steer what their statement of claim will be possibly a year or 2 from now. Seems they are rushing a little bit and not approaching things in the same way that others have before them. I suspect they are driving up the SP and a big fund raise is coming given the wording in the RNS. I'm not invested here, but keeping a close eye to see if i can get in sub £1 to offer a bigger margin of safety. However, those buying in at todays prices will still likely see a healthy return if they play the long game, and the arbitration is successfully constituted without any issues. GLA

Thanks for the summary Rivaldo - much appreciated. However you look at it, TST continues to be severely undervalued and unappreciated. The lack of liquidity obviously puts many off, but the value on offer when you adjust the SP for cash is stupidly low when bench marked against others with similar performance. Hopefully we have a year of out performance given the order book, and it is only a matter of time that another predator comes along.

My thoughts only...

If £1bn claim announced, then little reaction to SoC initially. Some churn for a few months, then share price will begin its journey to 35p. Ultimately could go to around 60p over next year or 2 if no bad news comes out.

If SoC is higher than £1bn (say 2.5bn), then initially SP to react quite aggressively and we could see 40p in short order. Some churn for a few months, then share price will begin its journey to 80p. Ultimately could go to around 160p over next year or 2 if no bad news comes out.

The big catalyst will not be the SoC, but the figure(s) stated in the SoC and how clear it is. Lets hope it's not less than 1bn, and if it is materially above, then it gets very interesting and volatile here.

750m-1bn in my opinion. All guesswork but that is what I will use for basis of valuation.

I don't know the nuances of the funding terms, but I suspect it is highly unlikely that Emmerson could use the funding to fund anything other than case related costs except in extreme circumstances, where the funder needs to just keep the company afloat and mothball all other activities. We are potentially 3+ years away from a decision on this, there is next to 0% chance this loss making company gets through the next few years without numerous raises which need to be taken into account with the valuation.

There is far more value in the ground at PAT than EML, but they won't claim all of it. I'm hoping for 1bn+ at PAT though. Current base case for EML woudl be

Hamz - worth pointing out that PAT only reached £40m market carpet within the last few days. It sat for over a year at around £10m after funding had been secured and arbitration commenced (likely less than 1% of claim). It is also further progressed than Emmerson and that plays a part on valuation. Thirdly, the claim is likely to be larger then Emersons IMO having done a bit of high level research. Fourthly, holders here will be diluted at some point it's inevitable. I hope for a cheaper entry price from today SP, but am monitoring the situation, and those in at todays price may still do very well.

RIDER - There are a limited number of these sort of situation listed on the LSE, so I review them all. I'd prefer to hold for the longer term and will likely de-risk before the decision, as this approach did sting me a little on GRX having held for around 4 years. I gather info from all over the place with forums probably being the most helpful.

Think I will sit on the sidelines for now. Potentially a very large claim incoming but hopefully we will get a bit more of a steer of the value closer to SoC to form a better investment decision. Based on a more realistic 1bn claim the market cap stands at 2% currently. PAT sat at 1% of what would be a conservative 1bn claim (and a stronger case) for quite a long time before things got motoring in the last few weeks. I may be wrong but I think there will be an entry point well below today's price in the not too distant future as we are a long way off any judgement and people quickly lose interest. I might be wrong, we'll see. Good luck to all that hold.

Thanks!

Interesting way to interpret the RNS MillionAir. The value of the entire business is tied up in Saber, there is little other assets, so buying the entire company is hardly likely to be the issue. I hope you are right, but think not.

MillionAir, please stop spamming the board with nonsense. You have clearly bought in very recently, tried to ramp up the share price with fantasy price targets and have now been stung very badly, and are trying to play it off like the RNS just released isn't bad news to see if you can sucker in some buyers and get back out.

The RNS just released highlights the utter incompetence of the board, and the lack of urgency they have shown for the last few years in actually selling the product. They have done test after test and modification after modification and we have nothing at all to show for it. The business is about to go bust, and start selling assets to pay off creditors. I doubt anyone will be wilign to plough more money into this, and if they do it will be at an outrageous discount due to the risk.

You have to question why after all these years of pushing a truly transformational product why not one single buyer in the world was interested in buying it at any price, or why no company ever ordered it. I suspect there probably was some interest but the BoD are protecting themselves and asking for too much.

The cancellation of the FSP basically means that the BoD will try take private at a ludicrously cheap price. I will be keeping hold of my shares if so, just to be a pain for them given they are almost worthless now. There can only be upside from here if the business survives.

The RNS just released highlights the utter incompetence of the board, and the lack of urgency they have shown for the last few years in actually selling the product. They have done test after test and modification after modification and we have nothing to show for it.

What claim size are posters expecting?

Very much doubt they will have any major issues raising cash for future funds. The long term performance is very good and they've just had a bad run recently. If the losses continue then and the performance doesn't return to the mean in the next year or 2 then yes, it will be a major concern.

After hours rumours of a merger. Suspect we’ll see an rns in the morning.

Hi PK73. Thanks for the time you have taken to look at previous companies going through similar processes and letting us know your findings on how the SP reacted to news. As a long term holder of GRX, the 4x rise occurred in quick succession directly after completion of the hearing. However, this was because many news outlets were reporting that GRX had been successful in their claim, so there must have been a bit of a leak, or somebody made it up and everyone followed suit. I never imagined that after a successful outcome I would only exit GRX with a 100% return given the risk profile and there wasn't even much dilution at GRX. I'm hoping for a bumper claim here, and not much more dilution and a much better outcome overall.

You might not be wrong, but SDI hardly have a history of placings so not sure where you came up with that. I've been a holder for about 5-6 years and they haven't done one of any size that I remember. They have always used debt or cash to pay for acquisitions. Placings are not a bad thing either if the money is used correctly. Ideally they would hold off on acquisitions, and get the debt down to strengthen the balance sheet.

Looks good value here at initial glance, but what will happen to the companies reputation, will they be trusted again, will they get renewed contracts etc? Reputation damage is pretty huge here, so whilst current year targets are in line (as they are already locked into contracts), the next few years will be interesting and I'd expect a decline. Provision for a payout also needs subtracting from the valuation here. Probably not as cheap as it initially looks, but good luck all that take the plunge.

By any metric, this is now ridiculously cheap for what is a consistent, profit making company, with a good dividend yield and a business that isn't really affected by macro issues. Unsure why it isn't commanding a premium rating. Lack of interest and therefore volume appears to be the biggest issue here.