Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks for your feedback PK. The fact the share price dropped 14% yesterday suggests there was some hope there would be a positive outcome yesterday. It will be Panthera Vs India (state) and the state will already be all over this and well aware and could have nipped it in the bud if they thought they had a weak case.
I'm not asking you to listen to my assurances or opinions on how long the case could take. I'm purely going on statistical averages and experience to make people aware that it is unlikely to be a quick turn around where they will find out in the next few weeks or months. Unless the state settle out of court, which could happen anytime, there is likely absolute min 2 years wait here before any award is granted if it goes through arbitration. It doesn't matter if LCM have been preparing for a year already that's largely irrelevant unfortunately except that they will be prepared when their time comes. All that matters is the timetable of the arbitration system and it's a frustrating slog having watched a few of these play out over the years. If your research has led you to believe that this will be quicker, I'm afraid your not reading the correct info.
To answer Mickey's question I'm not currently invested. I think I will buy a small amount to stick away in the bottom drawer and hope for successful outcome. Even if there isn't a successful outcome, the SP will likely have a decent rerate once a claim value is identified and the claim is lodged.
Really? There has to be a winner and there has to be a loser remember. If a legal team is paid and they think they can win then they will represent, there are no guarantees or nailed on cases at this level though. If there were it would be settled out of court which it hasn’t. What is more important is that the case has been reviewed and selected for funding by LCM who have an excellent track record, so there is a good chance of a successful outcome. LCM have lost a few cases this year though. For those willing to wait patiently for a few years they may be very well rewarded. The share price won’t rise meaningfully imo until the claim value is confirmed and even then it will swing up and down for a year or so waiting for the arbitration hearing. Some of you seem to think this is going to steam ahead at 100mph, I assure you it won’t. Even the quickest international arbitrations take 2 years to complete, thus one hasn’t even been lodged yet. May be worth a gamble. Good luck all.
Not invested here but watching closely. For those buying just be aware that it will likely be a minimum of 3 years wait before any award is granted. It will likely be a few months to lodge the claim, then a further wait for the hearing so maybe a year in, then typically a year to 2 years after the hearing you will hear of the award. There are no guarantees that PAT will win, or even get a partial award, but I suspect they have a strong case. The company is unlikely to rise to £2 as other posters have claimed unless the claim much bigger than expected. It may go to a pound possibly imo.
Final results should be out tomorrow, given results due w/c 18th September. Possible buying ahead of those, however I doubt there will be too much to glean from them other than cash position. It's all about Saber rollout now.
Agree, a bit of a dog at the moment, and dividend likely to be pulled or just a tokenistic one paid until things improve. One for the watchlist for now. Will re-evaluate at 15p for a re-entry if we get down to that, as I suspect over a 5 year time period it will be a good buy.
Wow what a load of absolute nonsense conversation back and forth between you two that nobody else wants to be subjected to or has any interest in. You are literally talking to yourself and arguing with brick walls with each other. Maybe try ignoring each other and you might just make it boring enough for the other person to not bother with this petty argument anymore if that is truly what you want. Spare the rest of us.
Who knows, there might not be any compensation. Whilst the tribunal was completed, the result of the judgement or the associated awards are yet to be announced. There was rumor that Prairie had been successful earlier this year and it was reported in a number of media outlets but nothing concrete. Just a waiting game, but I hope I assume it will be announced soon. I'm hoping for the full whack at 700 odd million, but wouldn't be surprised if it comes in much lower if successful as these things often disappoint. If they do win a sizable amount these shares will go into orbit. I'm trusting LCM's judgement on this one as they rarely get it wrong.
I don't love the shift to fair value accounting personally. It will allow easier comparison to rivals and highlight that LIT is cheap and make it easier to value, but that shouldn't be the driver really. As frustrating as it is to see the share price going nowhere for years, it would have eventually when cases mature and profits are booked. We are seeing those cases mature this year and I can only see this going one way. I much prefer the honest and simple approach they employed previously of booking a profit when it is made and not guessing on success rates which is ripe for error.
Seems a lot of effort, to get case law changed when it will seemingly have little material impact on earnings gong forward. Seems more of a vanity thing. Maybe lots of Anexo's clients are non-English speaking (or they can say they are) and it's another way they can make money on every case.
Agree - pretty underwhelming! May as well have taken it to court and got a much higher payout, given it was basically a guaranteed win with the precedents set elsewhere. That's about half what I was expecting and like you say doesn't help the debt situation a great deal. Market not particularly impressed.
In what way Peleliu? CMCL management have set realistic yet challenging forecasts since I've been a holder and in that time they have done nothing but meet or exceed those targets. This was the first miss and the reasons for it were explained (fairly easy fixes), no excuses were made. Providing they have resolved those issues as stated, we should be back on track next quarter. The drop here is in anticipation that subsequent quarters will be affected by the same issues, but I trust the management that say they are resolved and think all will be good. The fall is overdone IMO.
I have also reluctantly sold out today after many years of holding. Made a decent enough profit, but very disappointed in the offer as it should have been so much more and the way sagi has conducted himself is disgraceful. The share price would likely have been multiples of what it is now in a few years so it’s a shame to lose another solid growth stock in this way. I did consider holding just to be awkward, but I suspect sagi will get his way and delist by whatever means. Once delisted, he will find a way to screw you over as he has had no shame in doing this in a regulated and very public forum. I no longer want any association with sagi or any of his businesses. He might be entitled to do what he is doing but he’s forgotten general morality and will never be trusted again with investors both large and small. I’ll be renewing my vpn elsewhere.
In one way, the company is raising capital at a time of elevated share price levels compared to recent years. However it seems the market has taken this as they shouldn't need the extra capital if they are about to win a major legal case, so the board must think they aren't going to win. Even in the event the company do win their legal case, it will likely take some time before any compensation is actually received. Looks like they need the money now so winning the case isn't going to help immediately in that regard.
Litigation Capital Management, the litigation funder for this case announced yesterday "the Company is pleased to announce a positive development on one of LCM's 100% direct balance sheet investments which was heard by an ICC International Court of Arbitration tribunal. A partial award on liability and quantum was granted in favour of the funded party. This means that the funded party has succeeded in the claim and the only matter yet to be determined is the costs award." It is possible they have multiple cases ongoing with the ICC, but I reckon the timing suggests it is Prairie Mining (GRX), given we already know it was heard fairly recently and was awaiting decision. GRX share price has dipped a little, which may be coincidental, or it may be due to the word 'partial' being used above which will inevitably lower the award. However, IMO it is unlikely that the award will be lower than GRX current market cap, so minimally we are doubling the share price from here, but hopefully much more. IF you think LCM are talking about GRX here, this is the last opportunity to top up. Speculative buy, but on the balance of probability and this being a bit under the radar, I've done one last top-up and have a good wedge in GRX.
Obviously not and you may expect this sort of behaviour from an external party attempting a more hostile takeover, but you shouldn’t expect a long term business owner to actively screw over his fellow joint business owners. It’s called being a reasonable person. He simply won’t be trusted again.
The low value has probably always been because institutional holders didn't 100% trust Mr Sagi given his previous. Can you blame them after today. Todays action hints that he's not a particularly good egg (simply its his business and he's trying to screw his shareholders which is disappointing after years of shareholder support and fund raises). Throwing his toys out of the pram and threatening to delist if he doesn't get his way. Hope the board and institutional holders play hard ball with him and extract as much value as possible. I personally won't be buying any more shares where Sagi is involved.
Another derisory offer for a British company. That's K3C and Kape - potentially some of the fastest growing companies around - within a matter of weeks gone on the cheap. So frustrating as not long ago we were up to around 500p. Sagi taking advantage of market conditions, and bending his shareholders over (thanks Teddi). Think I'll keep hold of the shares for now, as it will 100% go through at a basement price of 2.85, but the board may eek out a little more. Doubt there will be a counter bid accepted from external parties personally, unless a mega offer comes in.
For better or worse I sold out my entire holding today. I’ll be annoyed if another bidder comes in and drives the price up but equally if this sale falls through, I don’t want to be stuck holding K3C at a much lower share price when the management have shown they can’t be trusted to make the correct decisions on behalf of their shareholders. Selling now at 350p is absurd but it seems they have made their mind up. Best of luck to those who continue to hold.