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So in less than 2 weeks Pinocchio's view has gone from:
7 Dec
Anyone who hangs in there now or even invests from this point is going to get an Xmas gift. PoC going up, Manica coming on-stream and the Zambian Cu project being advanced.
This ascribes nowt to the Aussie porphyry which is clearly a nonsense. The impending global copper shortage means Racecourse and Ascot will be pay-dirt within a year -even if not now.
Cheap as chips at this level- especially with hard rock Manica about to generate annual income of £5M. How many juniors have that sort of cashlflow locked-in for doing nothing !! ?
to:
Today
You can speculate if you wish. It is really very sad. If you only knew CB and what will happen in 2023.
I guess we know why his user name is Pinnocchio.
Pinnocchio: sounds like you should get as far away as possible from this board. Don't want your street cred taking a hit.
Don't let the door hit you on the a!!e on the way out.
I personally like to see other posters sums, estimates and predictions but always try to appraise what those estimates are based on. I do these sums myself knowing that there are - as the Americans say, 'known unknowns'. My estimates of the value of RC took a hit when the actual size was revealed but I knew that data point was unknown. Now I can put that figure into my model and the end result is that more accurate. The next data point is the size of Ascot.
As long as you make the figures rough guides and not your master.
Yes, a black swan event can knock all of your plans out of the water but you have to base your decisions on something and it would be illogical to assume that there will always be a black swan event to stop reaching your target.
Here's hoping for news before Xmas.
>> I fail to see how all this predictions of future earning and riches are going to materialize……..
Hello Roggy to sincerely believe that you would have to be a conspiracy theorist believing that global warming is ‘made up’ and something that certain governments only ‘want’ you to believe.
The copper and battery metals story, particularly copper is central to global decarbonisation and reaching net zero. If you believe in electrification then you have ‘got’ to believe in copper. It comes with the near certainty that increasing unparalleled demand will outstrip supply sending copper prices soaring for many years. Starting in mid ‘23 with Glencore predicting there will be 50mt copper shortfall.
That is the backdrop that cannot be ignored. Hope you get a good return and soon!
Bulletin boards are a valuable source of information and ideas, although to be evaluated carefully as all sorts of people with different viewpoints, and indeed agendas, post on them. But imagine investing with no forum for discussion. No group of fellow shareholders to consult or listen to when the share price drops unexpectedly for no apparent reason. With no other discernable coverage or comment (certainly in XTR's case) we would all be alone to second guess our faltering investments in horrible solitude.
Roggy, would you really prefer the BBs were not available? I am grateful for the facility. I don't ever use the filter function, but if I find a line of discussion unhelpful I skip over it manually. The 'armchair experts' can over step the mark sometimes in my view, and I have commented about that myself previously, but they do it because they are interested and they put a great deal of thought into their evaluations, and I think bulletin boards would be of much less interest or relevance without that kind of interest.
One of the most sensible posts this board has seen for many a day.
I share your sentiments entirely.
Thank you Roggy
I am personally just waiting to get out of the quick sand I have been stuck for now several years. Can't wait to sell and move on but obviously i am not going to turn a paper loss into a real loss. Hopefully that will be happen soon as I am not a 4 years hold but a 74 years old pensioner trying to make a bit of extra mula to make ends meet.
I am am not as erudite as all the gun -ho posters that have clearly got post graduate degrees in geology etc etc.
I fail to see how all this predictions of future earning and riches are going to materialize as it's also clear that the only one who had all the facts and figures at fingertips is CB.An enormous amount of guessing goes on every day about what's going to happen but the truth is NOBODY knows and often I wonder is even CB knows.I find it insulting that newcomers think they have all the answers to Eldorado . I said my piece good evening to everyone.
ZM you cannot reason with some of our LTH’ers, It’s like trying to reason with a 4yr old. Once you start, you have lost.
Tongue in cheek of course LW ;-) but there will be a time that the next breed of investors buy in and currently invested close their positions and move on. Probably long overdue for many I’m sure.
It ‘must’ go without saying though, that not all projects wether currently on the books or new acquisitions will succeed. Of course it is a very high proportion of projects that do fail or simply have to be parked up for any number of reasons, wether geological or economical. But that shouldn’t be a reflection on Colin bird companies. I don’t think this has been the case for Eureka, it will be a big commitment to undertake a mining programme that will have the momentum and be efficient enough to turn profit to then undertake the exploration to extend pit and test the deep sulphides that could potentially be a major discovery.
It’s more likely Eureka has been mothballed until they can sell the ore when Cu prices increase and a big ‘maybe’ that the company are also in a stronger position financially and with the resources once there is a conclusion to BR.
ZM it seems jumps to several incorrect conclusions. He needs to grasp that everything that Colin says will happen may not actually happen. To label anyone who points this basic truth out as mere salary fodder unable to survive in the world without ZM's heroic entrepreneurs, is possibly the most rudest post I have had the misfortune of opening in my time as an XTR shareholder (well lets leave Spacemen out of it for now lol). If XTR shareholders eventually see a return maybe it can be said that expertise has been used for their benefit. So far that hasn't really happened has it, unless you only consider the few given the nod to forward sell on spikes at cash raise time as worthy of Colin's expertise. I remain a holder as I fully believe somewhere down the line a new spike will be "created" which I'm sure many LTHs will see as a gladly taken exit point. I will leave the glorious failed ventures to our heroic entrepreneur loving ZM.
Lets not fall out over words. A pipeline is by definition potential future business.
CB can't resist a worked out project that nobody wants.
You don't become Tom Hartley by buying scrappers from the local council estate I'm afraid.
Stick to the big deals that have a better chance of a payback.
Don't overstretch yourself with clutter when you could be putting a for sale sign on the Ferrari you have just polished £5k into.
Get BR sold first, then we can go looking for the next one to polish up.
ZM
I would think your statement would be factual correct if you had said
"Kakuyu ... adds potential future income to the pipeline" The implication without the word potential is that it will happen, albeit later on.
"You appear to be also saying that XTR should no longer do anything in its stated business model as in the past some projects did not work out"
I'm not too sure who you came to that conclusion. My opening comment was....
I agree that a sensible business strategy is to expand and grow the co and income stream
Lets hope the DD was done correctly this time........
I stand by my factually correct opening statement.
Andrew4444 : "Your opening comment of “Kakuyu ... adds future income to the pipeline” is one hell of a bold statement after what has happened with the other small acquisitions."
Of course, and without question, the Kakuyu JV has added future income to the pipeline. Keywords that appear in the same sentence are 'future' and 'pipeline'. It has been described rather well, for a change, in the RNS published on Thursday. I didn't assert that Kakuyu had added an 'income stream' to the 'bottom line'.
Not everything in a pipeline reaches the end of the pipe, unfortunately. But if the pipe is empty there is a big problem.
You appear to be also saying that XTR should no longer do anything in its stated business model as in the past some projects did not work out. I am prepared to accept that right now my glass is half full if I am made aware of people doing something to top it up at some point. potentially via "near term production" as stated in the RNS.
I think it must surely be possible to accept the potential benefit of the new JV on the basis of the small investment, local processing and near term cash flow......... without sticking our heads in the sand wrt Kalengwa. (I'm still waiting for something official regarding the reality at Eureka).
At the minimum the hope has to be that it is another bolster to cash flow and exploration funding, with the potential to open up something more interesting..... but if it is just the first it will still have been a positive investment.
Gixxer if you scale this down to the micro level it's exactly the same policy xtr is adopting.
With Colin's connections in Africa it could be the year of the wheeler dealer.
A4444 thank you for getting that down in words in a way that I was too annoyed to last night :-)
ZM
I agree that a sensible business strategy is to expand and grow the co and income stream. That’s not the issue though and I don’t think anyone has a problem with that plan, but I think the detractors are saying its hasn’t worked with many of CB small acquisitions. Matrix, Kalengwa and Eureka (so far 3 years on)
Having a plan is fine, but if the company doesn’t execute and deliver on that plan they are going to be open to criticism. Matrix and Kalengwa are not examples of impatience by shareholders, those projects have been closed.
Your opening comment of “Kakuyu ... adds future income to the pipeline” is one hell of a bold statement after what has happened with the other small acquisitions. Some may even say naïve :)
I hope your confidence is justified !
That's a good logical approach and rationale for sitting this one out, without the need for any of the finger in the air guesstimates that keep raising their head in this forum. Although the hope here is that they're able to bring these metals out of the ground at great pace, and well in advance, before they put me in the ground ??
You can take what you want from any bulletin boards, but there is a better way of looking at the current position.
I believe the company will deliver some decent upside.
For me just understanding some basic principles of investing in the resource sector.-
* Look for cash flow stories with commodity price and exploration upside.
* Capped downside and uncapped upside potential.
* And near term cash flow from production.
Similarities we are now seeing with Xtract’s current positioning and growth strategy.
The company is on the verge of seeing that potential upside over the next couple of years. And with meaningful income to progress current assets based on the known geological knowledge and understanding to increase ore reserves and extend life of mines, in both Moz and Zambian assets. Is certain that any lessons learnt from Kalengwa will hopefully not be repeated with the current strategy to take on further small mining operations. Of course nothing is certain, but at least it puts them in a strong position going into this next cycle.
Bushranger project aside.
Hopefully I'd never get to find out !
Well put! I'm kinda intrigued as to whether or not you intentionally worded the last sentence that way lmao it genious. Was Santa's cookies soggy?
I don't know if it's just me but this site used to be pretty switched on and pretty informative but unfortunately it's detioriorated to a poor man's version of would I lie to you. It's the same old song about the future share-price figures based on back of a *** packet formulae using more imaginary figures than JK Rowling. It's like forecasting how a team is going to play at a major footballing event, assuming a million and one different set moves, by each player against each team and assuming the Winners of all the groups to achieve that objective. The trouble is it only takes one slip of one team to upset the applecart and send the predictions into freefall so all the planning and figures that keep being jotted down, discussed and boringly published and re-published before the event are just meaningless and boring. At the moment it's the vFA x 3n. Where if FA does evolve to be FA then whatever the other figures are the answer is still FA. Let's hope FA actually equals a meaningfull amount and if it does we won't know what that amount will be until all the data is gathered. The repetiveness of the boring speculations and repeatedly adjusted figures are so boring, in fact, that a box set of Strictly and I'm a Celebrity tastes more exciting. Quick, let's hide the firestick remote !! Anyway rant over, I need to speculate what Christmas presents I'm not going to have so I can unecessarily burn some mental energy on something that possibly will or won't happen and I won't find out until Santa has emptied his sack all over my living room .....
Personally, where we are with BR after P2 I think it would be better for AA to pass.
Rio Tinto reluctantly hunts for deals as mining industry consolidates
Anglo-Australian group looking for critical mineral assets but says it needs to be disciplined
Rio Tinto discussed its own strategy at the investor day, following its $3.3bn buyout of Canada’s Turquoise Hill last week, which gave it greater control of the Mongolian copper mine Oyu Tolgoi.
Jakob Stausholm, chief executive of the Anglo-Australian mining group, said he remained “a bit reluctant” to expand its business through big-ticket deals in markets such as copper. He said that miners could end up paying a “very full price” for assets that struggle to create value.
Stausholm also argued that no other miner could match Rio Tinto, with its critical minerals assets in countries including Canada, Mongolia and Argentina, where it acquired the Rincon lithium mine for $825mn in March.
Mining companies have been increasing their exposure to minerals such as copper, lithium and nickel, which countries need to decarbonise and open up alternative supply chains to China. Rio Tinto signed a memorandum of understanding with Ford this year that could result in the US carmaker becoming a foundation customer for the miner’s Argentine lithium supply.
“Critical minerals is clearly important from a policy perspective for many governments for security of supply,” said Cunningham.
https://www.ft.com/content/fb0ef893-da01-4fe9-906a-36ff272cce78
ZM... you nothing about the people you have resorted to personally attack. When you have been invested in XTR as long as I have you may just see that there have been a few to many deals which have not been a benefit to shareholders. Its called experience which sees things for what they are. Passing off Kalengwa as a venture that didnt come good after what was said at the time shows you are not as well read regarding XTR as you think you are.