The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Yes totally agree on the gold copper mix. The great thing with Alpala is that we have an even greater mix than that with loads of silver and other pm's. As NM said a while ago... the smelters or royalty guys like Franco et al LOVE the Alpala metal basket. That's what makes Alpala so special.
Wouldn't know listening to a few pessimistic posters on here though!
Morning RK
Interesting stuff
"He said that the potential Newmont-Newcrest merger is also weighing heavily on the sector, but if it goes through, it has the potential to change the fortunes of the juniors.
“As a junior mining investor, I still hope that the mega-merger between Newmont and Newcrest goes through, maybe at a higher valuation,” he said. “It means that more money might come back into the market. Let's assume it's a $20 billion takeover, that's money that could get reinvested into the sector, that's very positive. Try to allocate $20 billion in the mining space. That's a big chunk of change that needs to find a new home, and it won't just go to the majors. Some of it might trickle down all the way to the juniors and that has me positive.”
Hoffmann believes that egos and lower valuations are keeping mining executives and their boards from pushing ahead with beneficial mergers. “If you were trading at a dollar last year you wouldn't accept a merger at 30 cents right now,” he said. “A lot of companies are sitting on that valuation gap right now, and boards are not approving terms. It just doesn't make any sense, and nobody wants to look like a loser.”
Hoffmann said that in the current environment, it’s not surprising to see interest move from precious metals into the base and battery metals.
“It's definitely trending towards the base metals right now,” he said. “Gold-copper projects are being loved by the market, it's just that optionality with copper as well. There will be a supply-demand gap at some point, with electrification and the goal of reaching carbon neutrality..."
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-03-22/Fed-has-punished-the-gold-sector-and-Musk-is-wrong-on-copper-Kai-Hoffmann.html
Bozi
I only think warren comments get lapped up your words
Is in the absence of absolute no comms apart from the usual Solgold mantra
He is seen as a figure close to the very people running the show
Bozi, in my view your argument collapses because we will not be able to take this much further. So as much as I agree it would be more valuable in ten years time when it's producing, the fact is for practical reasons it will never get there under our ownership. This is the issue.
Bozi,
How do you know that Bob's phone isn't inundated with calls of interest? What tells you it hans't? Majors might well be banging on the door but you or I won't hear about it until they are ready.
Name me one Tier 1 asset that has been sold way under the market value. Go on... name me one.
Who's everyone? Not everyone is ready to sell up cheap. A few retail investors here and there but apart from that, most want full value or as close as we can get to it.
As for conditioning... I agree to some extent but that's largely down to a few on here. Most brokers or analysts haven't changed their views or targets on SOLG. Most remain the same around the mid 70's.
I'm all ears when it comes to opinions but for the very reason of 'conditioning' do not ike spurious 'feels like a disaster' or we are desperate or what's wrong with our asset... we have no interest ... it's all utter nonsense.
In terms of timeframes... it's important SOLG get the asset sold or financing in place for the development stage as Ecuador gov approvals are staged in a way that means Capex requirements come calling. If SOLG leave it too late, they will be heading into a very dark and tricky corner with options becoming more limited as time ticks by and cash pile falling with equity raises likely. But that's a story for Q4 2023 not Q1.
Hope the above answers your questions.
Fort - at the very least you could respect the opinions of others, those that are genuine.
Lets be completely honest with ourselves here. We all consider Cascabel to be a tier 1 mine in the making and a very lucrative asset during a copper price boom, which the urbanisation and electrification of the world points towards.
So why aren't the major miners, at a time where markets are subdued, banging our door down for this asset? Moreso, why are SOLG investors so desperate to sell the asset and the company before the impending copper boom and ensuing pricing sweet spot?
Are we saying everyone needs the money during the downturn that we might experience beforehand? Surely not.
Tell me why everyone is so desperate to sell their fiver for a pound now when in all reality it could be worth a tenner or twenty with patience? All because SOLG missed a few deadlines and aren't moving it along as fast as we'd like?
There has been a proper conditioning job done on investors here during this journey we've all been on, so much so that everyone is happy to grab what they can and forego the upside down the round.
Either that or none of the above applies and we've been sat on a fabrication the last 10 yrs. Which is it?
Warren knows that his commentary, be it at conference or over zoom for a mining YouTube channel, gets lapped up by SOLG shareholders. He's probably enjoying messing with people.
This decline is on pitiful volume, compared to the volume during the rise. All you need to know.
You're going too far now, 1981. Outing yourself .
Big strategic players are not going to wait around. Time, not money, is the scarce resource here. They have tens of billions of $ to invest, but there are timelines in months before licences and patience runs out. They are not waiting for years to save a few hundred million $ .
The bigger picture has changed, Fort. Since we've removed any pretense of mining Cascabel, switched leadership, retained Maxit and have merged with Cornerstone, our sp has dropped. That is the market's way of telling you there's no credible plan in place for the medium term, and no prospect of an immediate sale. But I agree that the SP doesn't really matter- these things move at a glacial pace. In the next couple of years we'll have something more concrete in place.
why 3 months DM? Solg will just delay... again... the can will be kicked down the road.
No, that's not what I was suggesting. I was saying that the move from 13p to 18p was 'welcomed' by many as testing times and amongst wide scaremongering and doom mongers etc. But my point was, many posters were quiet during the rebound but seem to come out with negativity when the sp moves down.
Sp's go up and down, that's markets for you. And I'm certainly not happy at 16p or 17p levels. But just because the sp is down at these levels doesn't mean the bigger picture has changed at all. We are all aware of plenty of examples out there whereby sp's are generally very low before doubling, tripling or 4 or 5 bagging on sale deals. Yet we have many posters on here who seem to think the sp reflects the potential sale price. And it doesn't... but for balance it could! Who knows? We have to assume that M&A generally is consistent with in ground prices being basis for valuations/sold prices.
I'm fully out for now good luck those holding..May be back if hitting 13p levels
Maxit, Xiang has locked currency favourable when Dollar was up, GBP relatively weak, and stock was very cheap. Explorer vs Producer? not sure but looks like NPV is still being calculated at $1400 per ounce, which should be 1800
So a few weeks ago we bounced from 13p to 18p and a number of posters on here were absent or had very little to say. We fall back from 18p to 16p and suddenly the doom merchants and those that seem to have warm cuddling 'feelings' that things are an apparent mess start spouting negative nonsense.
Seriously guys... can you be any more predictable?
As for Irwin... his comments were in the context of 'selling all his SOLG shares' years ago and reinvesting the proceeds. Had he done that he would have made far more. It's not about whether SOLG will go for less than 40p as some wrongly assume. It's about having that capital to reinvest and then turn into more profits. It's quite easy to understand. Irwin uses money to grow money. He doesn't like having it locked up especially when inflation is 10%+. He wants his money out so he can reinvest it. He doesn't care much if he gets 35p or 55p as at end of the day, he'll be turning that cash he gains into more cash. So whether that's through SOLG share price premium or through another investment is what is all about to him. To most here, the journey has been such a dragged out affair that most will be taking their cash and sticking into places far far away from the casino like stock market that it has become. The market has become a joke. No wonder property is looking so good these days - bricks and mortar v bitcoin? One for investors and another for gamblers.
I believe if you study the income sheet you can see the status of options, but is there a record published anywhere of live and lapsed options and the prices as let’s face it there have been so many it’s hard to keep up.
To issue 30M share option to an individual based on meeting certain criteria and not outlining those criteria at the same time seems like more making it up as you go along to me. Announce the share options and then describe the targets or lack of them depending on the reaction to it, thank god it’s not just PI’s holding shares.
DG1”s 22:40 post just about sums it up for me.
Trouble is, SOLG is not a producer but an explorer. While the relic has suddenly become attractive to the markets I am not convinced that it will do much to lift the sp. A cash bid from BHP or the Chinese....yes!.
The copper resources remain an interesting long term punt for those with patience.
Sticky inflation, rates rising. Gold seems best hedge, as rates hike will eventually raise default risks, Gold also a best hedge against US dollar
Q, this will never become a hostile situation and the re-balancing of the register makes an agreed deal that much easier.
Bozi what addicknt is saying in simple terms is the book has become more diverse and makes a hostile bid even harder.
Bozi, I completely respect your opinions, particularly as they're always very well argued.
On a slightly separate point, looking at the updated share register, we now find ourselves in the position of having 42.7% in 'friendly' hands and 20.7% in what may be described as 'unfriendly' hands, with 36.6% unknown. This is an important shift and in my view makes Caldwell's task easier.
You may be right DinnerMoney, but I suspect the strategic review is just that.
It is looking at the best way to advance Cascabel and we are considering everything.
I'm not saying we're responsible for the situation Add. However, away from what was the big two, many shareholders have been calling for a sale for years now, virtually railing against the company strategy of asset development.
Just look at the contempt many now hold Cazzubbo with. Nobody really knows what went on that led to his sacking but he's virtually the devil and appears to have copped for the reduced metals in the PFS despite it being well documented that Keith Marshall oversaw that.
I'm not expecting anyone to agree with me on this but it is how I feel. SOLG the company and SOLG shareholders haven't been on the same page for years and that's why every AGM is a soap opera.
For me, that makes things exponentially more difficult for management to navigate.
We can open cut this for a few hundred million.
Good grief we can offtake that amount if we have to for maybe between 3 and 5%
But we can do better than that.