Reading some of the replies on the BP board was interesting. I noticed a few posters strongly complaining about the fact that BP are moving more and more to green energy and "that Greta" stuff, whereas they'd invested in proper Oil and Gas. Very strange and they'd do better to move over to one of the US companies, who don't seem to give a toss what happens to the world, imo.
And there's me thinking I'm an old fossil and stuck in my ways :-)
RE: what is now closer £1 or 50p?04 Aug 2020 13:27
RBLionheart, I'm not convinced things are as bad as you make out. Well, certainly not for MRO. Did you actually read the recent trading update for H1? It seemed to me that things were mostly running as normal for the first quarter, but pretty much stopped for around 3 months. Hence you'd expect to see results down by around 50%, yes? Let's have a look;
Group; "In the Period Group revenue declined by 27% which was reflective of trading in line with expectations until mid-March 2020 followed by a steep decline in the second quarter. The Group was loss-making in the second quarter of this year, but rebounded to be breakeven at the adjusted operating profit level in the month of June as recovery started to take place. This means Melrose is likely to make a small adjusted operating profit in the Period."
Aerospace; "In line with the industry, sales in Aerospace for the Period reduced by approximately 18% and are not expected to recover in the second half of the year. Overall it is anticipated that sales for the year are likely to reduce by approximately 25-30% year-on-year and for the business to broadly breakeven. "
Automotive and Powder Met; "The Automotive and Powder Metallurgy businesses saw very similar trends to each other in the Period with a sharp decline in the second quarter due to many of their factories being shut and sales in the Period subsequently being down 36%. However, these businesses are also now seeing recovery. With COVID-19 cases currently rising in parts of the world and an unknown effect of customer restocking it cannot be certain these trends will continue at their current strength, but at present trading in China is ahead of last year (and has been for a couple of months), trading in the US is forecast over the summer to be within 10% of last year and there are some signs of improving European demand. "
Nortek; "Nortek Air Management is performing well, and as a result, sales in the Period were only down 7%."
Brush and Ergotron; It's what's not said here that is probably more concerning, but here's what they did say; "The Other Industrial businesses are in various end markets impacted by COVID-19 to variable extents. Brush is benefiting from the significant restructuring projects which it completed in 2019 and Ergotron has seen strong demand for its health sector products."
You mentioned Airbus, but BAE are actually doing ok, because defence is holding up really well. They've actually been bailing out some of their suppliers, for instance.
My point is that of course things aren't great. But you're viewing things purely with sentiment (which tbf, is probably what decides share prices), where maybe it might be worth considering what's actually happening at MRO?
You might not swallow all of that, but re-reading the statement has actually encouraged me and I'm more confident in my holding now.
It was trading at 88.2 - 88.8 just before the close, which is where I always look. Either way, it's still a fair old drop and if this was truly anti-cyclical, as it ought to be, it should have been well up today.
Still, I'll see how it opens tomorow, with a view to a top up.
Patience indeed. Don't worry, I'm just voicing my frustration. I've been here since Xmas, fwiw.
It just bugs me. I struggle to think how things could possibly look better for BEG in this climate, yet we still seem to be struggling. My 20/20 hindsight says I should have sold when it hit 115. But there's a very good reason I didn't. I believe it's worth more than that.
This share is really beginning to test me. There's bad news on every front, yet still the SP keeps falling. It just doesn't make sense to me. Part of me wishes it'd just fall back say 10% and I'd just have a bit of a top up. But the drip,drip,drip just puts me off.
So I thought I was being clever and sold at 940, thinking that it wouldn't go much higher and would fall back. And then watched it rise by a quid. It annoys me that I never seem to be able to get my buy/sell calls right, but at least I made £2 a share this time, as opposed to letting a share run only to see it fall back majorly and putting me back in the red.
The bigger concern though, is that this is going to run away from me and I'll struggle to get back in.