Recent political events suggest there is perfect storm for not only for Gold but oil as well. Biden was seen pleading to Putin possible to pump more oil. Saudi’s annoyed by predetermined Catholic Biden. US dollar holding but can take a plunge. Boris is counting on another lockdown to bring oil prices down. Next lock down will be more to do with the oil. Gold price is going to benefit India opening, which was heavily under demand.
Major irony is Gurantee is not significant anymore, IRC cash balance already $75m , can be around $120 by interims. POG strategic goal was to remove Gurantee which seems accomplished anyway. Another irony , the CEO who sold irc is being trialled for embazzlements but irc still being sold.
Jerome Powell’s analogy of inflation with lumber, it shows Fed is just trying to convince business not to hoard. Higher inflation is going to be long term feature and can peak in 2021. Previous scenarios are not applicable here, higher inflation is blessing in disguise for new entrants to enter in market and to avoid stagnation.
Uk inflation above target, IMO BOE is ready to tolerate it upto 7% and across the pond Fed can tolerate it upto double digit. Gold peaked during last recession after 2-3 years, by that comparison it can peak in 2023
IRC stake is being held for sale and written, but some how this transaction doesn’t go through to Stocken. It’s very unlike IRC stake will disposed off, rather we might see a reversal, because getting rid of guarantee was always priority, not the stake. Even Chairman statement points towards that.
At current rate, IRC will be debt free by third quarter, As usual Peter Hambro might try to covert loan into some sort of convertible bonds before hand. POG if managed to retAin irc will have free ride onwards
Rusty, if someone wants to t/o Pog today with irc, then t/o price will be $8 billion because irc whole resource will be priced in the offer, because 31.10% stake means holder can increase equity upto controlling stake without any permission or making a full offer. More over its very unlikely now irc will be dumped for $10m but you never know
IRC back in business, what are they going to do with this much cash. What if POG has increased stake in IRC and IRC buying third party concentrate to be processed at POX hub. Little bit complex but a perfect business model to have greater synergy.