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Started: alexeliasson, 20 Jun 2024 12:55
Last post: Bismarck, 20 Jun 2024 17:21
"The political class in nigeria are fully corrupt and only care about themselves."
Not only in Nigeria. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64029040
They're only getting 30%, that's what the delay was about. They had to carve 10% off to corrupt insiders in order to get the go ahead, looking and business headlines as an indication of government sentiment or thoughts is really not useful in the nigerian context. The political class in nigeria are fully corrupt and only care about themselves.
Two recent news that strengthen my belief that the original acquisition terms are still in play:
1. NNPC huge commitment to Golar which was announced last week.
2. Yesterday's news that NNPC commits to another big project with Total:
https://headtopics.com/ng/sources-nnpc-totalenergies-to-finalise-550m-investment-54470438
"TDF hails Nigeria’s recent pro- business approach in oil sector "
https://www.nationalaccordnewspaper.com/tdf-hails-nigerias-recent-pro-business-approach-in-oil-sector/
Started: Bismarck, 14 Jun 2024 07:50
Last post: SeaTank8300, 18 Jun 2024 10:41
Inflation is running at >30%, so the real return on government debt denominated in Naira is still negative despite very high base rate, which is why investors continue to look to the equity market to protect capital. The currency will continue to depreciate in line with the inflation differential to the USD, approximately, although there are various dynamics at play here. The aim of the government is to bring inflation under control, move to a position of positive real rates, and thereby attract capital flows and stabilise the currency, then a reinforcing cycle of further capital flows supporting investment and growth and further more stable currency. The government is trying to fix issues that the previous administration compounded over the last ten years.
Currecny devaluation only lasst so long before it reverses at some point surely.
The last 5 years has no bearing on today. If you had cash would you invset in SEPL today or bank rate of say 25% interest rate.
That's an interesting point. However over the past 5 years the naira has lost 80% of its value when measured against GBP.
Even with a 25% interest rate, if I were a Nigerian I might be inclined to hold Seplat shares instead of cash in a savings account as a hedge against further currency devaluation.
Maybe because investors can get a more secure return on thier cash in a bank.
Interest rate decision: During the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) session held on May 20-21, 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) resolved to hike the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points, elevating it to 26.25% from the previous 24.75%
Started: alexeliasson, 14 Jun 2024 14:07
Last post: herminator, 14 Jun 2024 20:18
Hi everyone, surely the prospectus/rns can’t be that much longer now, my feeling is that the 40% option is a deal that has been done, I really can’t see quibbling over 10% would do any credit to the deal going through. If the 10% was to be challenged it brings soo many hurdles and hoops that need to be addressed and let’s face it Tinibu just could n t afford to risk more delays because of the loss of revenue that this deal will offer. I’m thinking ahead a little and I’m sure it was mentioned but the massive potential seplat could or should be offered as a front runner / go to energy company rising in nigeria. Just think of the future acquisitions that will present there selves as the company grows. I’m also thinking Roger brown had always promised future prosperity to existing shareholders. I also have a hunch that larger investment houses have been approached or nudged to look at seplat, so hopefully we will see some TR1s raising there heads. Have a great weekend all regards H.
Alex, Sea Tank,
I’m with you both, it should be 40%. In Seplat’s update on 23rd May, it stated:
“There has been no material change in terms of the announcements dated 25 February 2022 and 24 May 2023. The headline consideration, effective date and the contingent payment structure remain unchanged”.
Purely based on this and needs of Nigeria as a country I don’t believe they will change the percentage. After all, some of the investments required for increasing production will come from Seplat’s investor pool. It would unwise on their part to reduce this pool.
Clearly, NNPC and Exxon have publicly differed and hence the court proceedings. I suspect adjustments have been agreed and made to satisfy the two parties only, be it for political reasons, legal or accounting purposes but only affect NNPC and Exxon and not Seplat.
Added to SEPL @ 196p
https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1801629191525343610
ST,
I'm delighted we see this the same way. I appreciate your input.
As I see it, there isn't plausible mechanism or route to such a handover of 10% additional WI to NNPC, so the 40% is the only outcome. Why do I say this? It would require MPNU to sell 10% WI to NNPC, but why would they do this when it is Exxon's legal right to sell their Delaware subsidiary to whomever they wish? If necessary, they can enforce this right through the Nigerian courts. In any case, such an alteration would render the original SPA with Seplat null & void. Not to mention the sale of WI to NNPC would have a cost, but NNPC is broke and can't pay for such a purchase. The government needs the transaction closed ASAP; they need immediate investment in regenerating production, because production today and tomorrow is far more valuable than a long wait to purchase a 10% additional stake with money they don't have while production dwindles. So frankly, this rumour of a sale of 10% WI to NNPC sounds utterly absurd to me.
Started: te1970, 14 Jun 2024 11:37
Last post: dohers316, 14 Jun 2024 12:41
My guess is it will initially settle in the mid to low 200s shortly after completion and should be knocking 300p by the end of the year or early to mid q1 2025.
Hi Folks,
When it goes through, what are we expecting the share price be?
Any Suggestion!
Started: middleEastMoney, 14 Jun 2024 10:50
Last post: Roofer61, 14 Jun 2024 12:36
One of those shares you wished bought more , more than doubled in 2 years, cream always settles at the top of milk bottle , bod well done, payday here...atb
https://www.seplatenergy.com/investors/dividend-information/
We will get there, this mornings RNS is a reminder of all the games being played (past tense) to get us close to the line, cigar at the ready, but how much longer ???
Started: Tyler19, 14 Jun 2024 09:37
Last post: Tyler19, 14 Jun 2024 09:37
Lagos and London, 14 June 2024: Seplat Energy notes the announcement on the 30 May 2024 by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited ("NNPCL") regarding the Settlement Agreement between NNPCL, ExxonMobil Corporation, Delaware and Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited ("MPNU") and has since been notified of the termination of the court proceedings brought by NNPCL against MPNU and its affiliates over the proposed divestment of MPNU's shares to Seplat Energy Offshore Limited ("SEOL").
Seplat Energy commends the open cooperation and progress achieved by all stakeholders, and will diligently engage all key stakeholders, including the Government, in progressing towards a swift completion of the acquisition of MPNU.
Started: alexeliasson, 13 Jun 2024 19:05
Last post: Tyler19, 13 Jun 2024 20:53
Looks like we're almost there. There's an interesting quote in the press releases:
"The parties will jointly discontinue arbitration proceedings upon completion of the transaction. MPNU shareholders and NNPC will align their positions to finalize their respective transactions with Seplat".
Could it mean we still get 40%. Fingers crossed! And as usual, GLA!
Wow, there we have it gents!
NNPC withdraws its 2.5 year long arbitration claim against ExxonMobil. The last hurdle to finalize the MPNU acquisition.
What a relief...
Link:
https://www.thecable.ng/just-in-nnpc-seeks-withdrawal-of-suit-challenging-exxonmobil-seplat-deal/
Started: SpArmada, 12 Jun 2024 13:20
Last post: alexeliasson, 13 Jun 2024 09:42
Personally, my sheet is at $400m final consideration and I consider that a bargain of a lifetime. Anything better, I don't mind.
What gives me comfort here is that he (the Twitter profile) has been right on several cases previously, and he writes a good blog on O&G stocks. I'm delighted that our "hidden" stock gets more attention by the "pro's".
Has anyone seen numbers like these? I think paying $125 million on top of the deposit would be a very good scenario
https://x.com/oilgastourist/status/1800857879668519138
Started: alexeliasson, 10 Jun 2024 15:26
Last post: alexeliasson, 10 Jun 2024 15:26
2024-06-10: "We expect that healthy consumers and solid summer demand for transportation and cooling will push the market in a sizable Q3 deficit of 1.3mb/d. We therefore expect Brent to rise to $86/bbl in Q3." - Goldman Sachs
Started: BenHazz, 4 Jun 2024 16:45
Last post: e43, 4 Jun 2024 18:55
Brent back to $77.70 ,all my oilers are down on this sudden fall,also possible industrial action by Nigerian oil workers being reported on Oilprice.com in Support of national minimum wage.
Hi Ben,
I really thought the price would firm up a little bit more, the opposite has occurred, which now makes me think we will be back in the low 180’s (maybe 170’s) by COB Friday.
Then we will sit and wait for a RNS.
Slightly surprised how quickly the SP has pulled back in the past couple of days. Well over 10% retrace seems excessive. Hopefully some formal news in the next few weeks will reignite the SP.
Started: middleEastMoney, 2 Jun 2024 07:45
Last post: raxfactor, 3 Jun 2024 15:46
Some of you might of seen this but it is the first article I have seen which is written by the press.
Came out yesterday.
https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Fthewillnews.com%2Fnnpcl-backtracks-signs-exxonmobil-seplat-energy-deal%2F&title=NNPCL%20Backtracks%2C%20Signs%20ExxonMobil%2FSeplat%20Energy%20Deal
Plus it goes without saying of course it's the Nigerian press.
Hi herminator,
DEC is pretty volatile and heavily shorted. I hold and will likely add more later. I see it going to £15 in a few months.
For me it’s an income play and I got loads in 880 pence range. Hence I can ride it out and buy dips.
But the future of US gas and Dec with their debt run off is very compelling. Also lots of ii’s buying now.
I think here is a safer bet than DEC though or even MNG/PHNX where it looks like the selling is over and will climb with ECB rate cuts and post election no matter who wins. Both offer exceptional yield.
When I slice at HEX will look to add DUKE and possibly WINK. Both will benefit from rate cuts and are quarterly payers which fit my income needs. ATM I am very heavy in just 6 stocks so need to diverse bit.
Usual caveats
Trek
Yes expected a little retrace on this with profit taking, of corse th MMs will be leaping to squire more shares inSEPL as they know it will rise steadily after the long awaited rns finally comes out soon. Trek it’s interested me that you had mentioned DEC I see they have been granted a 2 week extension through I think she’ll today in rms. I have a little bit of profit which I’m happy to take a risk on, soo is DEC worth a little toe in? I have read various arrivals etc. Im Farley certain this will come good but it’s only my opinion, views welcome Trek 😊 as all GL all regards H.
Hi ST,
I held PLUS at 800p! Was a nightmare trading it then as so little stock. Also held TCAP at 100p! And CMCX and JIM at same time. All sold, escaped JIM by skin of teeth. But agree plus looks v good.
My biggest position by a long way is HEX atm. Crazy! But that’s what I do when i spot an opportunity.
Will sell half then tip profits into income.
Atb
Trek
Agree, some profit taking is healthy and allows new investors in at a more appetising level. We need more shareholders in SEPL.
DEC looks interesting although is very leveraged. I'm actually diversifying away from O&G, my current top position (after SEPL) is PLUS500, which sits on a pile of cash, pays a healthy dividend, is buying back a lot of stock, and has a fast growing business focused on disrupting the US commodity futures market, with plans to list on NASDAQ in 2025. I would wager it is offers a low risk 50-100% gain with a 12-18 month outlook and is not exposed to commodity price unknowns and actually generates more cash when VIX is high.
Started: SeaTank8300, 31 May 2024 11:16
Last post: raxfactor, 31 May 2024 22:53
Just looking in on today's posts it's crazy how far Sepl must be under investors radar, only 12 posts today on the back of such monumental news for the company and double digit rises two days on the trot and no one has picked the news up in my opinion, I know we haven't had a rns for reasons stated in comments below but I thought we would of had a rush of new commentary, but no.
(92% liquids)
------------
Very nice
The Transaction encompasses the acquisition of the entire offshore shallow water business of ExxonMobil in Nigeria, which is an established, high-quality operation with a highly skilled local operating team and a track record of safe operations, producing 95 kboepd (W.I.) in 2020
(92% liquids)
Transformational impact
· The Transaction will create one of the largest independent energy companies on both the Nigerian and London Stock Exchanges, and bolster Seplat Energy's ability to drive increased growth, profitability and overall stakeholder prosperity
· Based on 2020 pro forma working interest volumes for Seplat Energy and MPNU, the transaction delivers:
o 186% increase in production from 51 kboepd to 146 kboepd
o 170% increase in 2P liquids reserves, from 241 MMbbl to 650 MMbbl
o 14% increase in 2P gas reserves from 1,501 Bscf to 1,712 Bscf, plus significant undeveloped gas potential of 2,910 Bscf (JV: 7,275 Bscf)
o 89% increase in total 2P reserves from 499 MMboe to 945 MMboe[1]
o Includes offshore fields with dedicated, MPNU-operated export routes offering enhanced security and reliability
There has been speculation that NNPC will be raising its stake in these assets, such that SEPL reduces its interest to 30%.
Actually, it has been pointed out in the media that the government has been talking about NNPC REDUCING its stake in such blocks, not raising its stake, as NNPC is financially constrained and has not been able to meet its commitments as a partner in production investments, thus constraining the sector.
I know for a fact that the acquisition of further ownership in these blocks by operators has been raised by various stakeholders, including SEPL. My impression was, however, that this was some way off from actually happening. I am speculating now, this might be on the table sooner, given the financial pressure on the government to raise capital more quickly and accelerate drilling activity. If SEPL was given the option to acquire further stakes from NNPC at similar valuation levels, it would obviously be highly accretive. Pure speculation, as I have not heard this from any reliable source, and it flies in the face of current rumours that SEPL will be acquiring less, not more, of MPNU.
As I said, for the time being, unless we hear otherwise, one has to assume no change in terms.
Started: Mangocrane, 31 May 2024 10:05
Last post: surprised, 31 May 2024 10:18
Have a read of the below thread on twitter/x Mangocrane, it's a decent guide to whats upcoming
Set to triple net profit the coming two years (without share dilution); all while trading at single digit earnings and double digit dividend yield:
https://x.com/alexeliasson/status/1796182995616854224
Sorry to be that guy, I can see a lot of long timers and don’t want to sound ignorant. I just got in on SEPLAT last week at about 160 and woke up this morning to the crazy rise. I’ve done some reading of the news and on here and is the Jist of it that they’ve acquired Exxon Nigeria or is it just part?
Obviously buzzing with the very short term rise but is it a safe hold do we think?
What will this mean for shares? I presume that they stay up? What would be the reason they drop back down as I can imagine the acquisition will surely boost their capacity and thus their revenues and such EPS etc? Thanks in advance would be good to know.
It would be interesting to see if NNPC sell their 10% to Seplat or Seplat buys 30% at a lower price. Both options should work well with Seplat. It shouldn’t be long before an RNS, probably within a week or so.
The rumours about seplat getting 30% instead of 40% of the asset have been there for over a year, it's more likely than not that'll be the outcome. I've heard the rumours along the way and this deal could have gotten done a long time ago but the CEO and old chairman almost messed everything up by originally rejecting the compromise hence all the cases against the ceo and why the old chairman was forced to resign, only for them to backtrack apologise and accept. The deal is done anyway, exxon have already moved out of their offices in lagos and seplat have operational control of the company I hear.
One way or another the terms are going to be broadly favourable to Sepl, the challenge once we have operational control is to get drilling to raise production back to close to where it was in 2022,which at current oil price,will be transformational for Sepl over a couple of years.
Until we hear from the company itself, I would assume nothing has changed with the terms. It is unlikely that terms have been altered with agreement from SEPL without an RNS by now, unless they have been unilaterally altered by Exxon, which would be contractual breach. I suspect there might be more to this story and it might even be in SEPL's favour. Unfortunately we won't know until we know, so it is best to assume no change unless we hear otherwise.
But there IS a material change - the change in ownership percentage.
Started: middleEastMoney, 30 May 2024 20:41
Last post: middleEastMoney, 30 May 2024 20:41
I want to see the new agreement, drill down in to the details, but fantastic news, moving forward to rapidly cross the finish line.
My target SP 240-270
Started: alexeliasson, 30 May 2024 15:15
Last post: herminator, 30 May 2024 20:03
Well well, it’s been 2 long years,I’m extremely chuffed for all of our pataint stalwarts that have stuck with this roller coaster of a share. Thankyou seatank temple trek and all for all the rightful info. Onwards from here, sit back enjoy the ride and let’s start banking all those attractive divis. Kind regards H.
I second that. This board has been the most civil and useful of all the boards I have seen to date. Congratulations to all of us who are banking some handsome profits today. Best wishes to all of us who remain invested for further upside on the back of solid fundamentals.
Sending my sincere thanks (and congratulations) to all the helpful writers and investors on this Seplat-board. You have been most helpful.
Congrats!! :D
Started: Tyler19, 30 May 2024 15:49
Last post: e43, 30 May 2024 16:33
13.50 ,was a delayed trade so would have happened earlier when price was moving up fast.V pleasing day.
Great stuff !!! Well done everyone.
I've top sliced as I'm about 130% up. My target was reached months ago TBH even after spending the dividends elsewhere, but I held on for the deal confirm. Thanks to the great posters like Seatank on here who didn't mind answering questions about the prospective future of the company last couple of years. My holding is now worth about 7% of my portfolio which I'm happy to hold, keep an eye on and DRIP the divs. Cheers and GL
Nearly 75k shares sold at 13:50
Looks like the purchase will be for 30% rather than 40%. Await new price, assume it will be pro rated down?
https://africaoilgasreport.com/2024/05/farm-in-farm-out/nnpc-to-hold-70-of-the-jv-as-the-exxonmobil-seplat-transaction-comes-to-a-close/
Started: SeaTank8300, 30 May 2024 12:12
Last post: SeaTank8300, 30 May 2024 15:01
Traded volume has picked up massively, a few hundred thousand shares traded in the last couple of hours alone. We all knew this was coming, so honestly speaking, this level of interest is surprising and very exciting.
194/196 atm.
Ignore what google finance says. That was a fat finger drop to 185! Prob a single fig trade to sniff out any stops.
I bought 1000 more shares but no more cash to test the buy side liquidity.
I expect when we get an RNS the mm will take anything sell wise as there will be plenty of insti’s that will add on the proper news but not on Twitter! lol!
Usual caveats
Trek
Very pleased management have finally got this deal over the line, it all seems a long time ago when the deal was first mooted, then all the shenanigans with court cases against Roger Brown which had to fought and defeated, bet the management team will be celebrating tonight, and so will I.
Just a reminder that this asset was producing over 200k barrels a day (with plans for further expansion) before politics and policy uncertainty led to exxon stopping further investment and letting it wind down to where we are today. This is just the beginning.
This is fantastic news, excellent management, excellent assets, excellent growth ahead, and last but not least, a well done to the Nigerian government and regulator. One sure way to change negative perceptions.
Also, best wishes to the stockholders, I've thoroughly enjoyed reading many of the excellent and helpful posts here. Thank you!
Started: alexeliasson, 29 May 2024 19:35
Last post: alexeliasson, 29 May 2024 19:35
"Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has directed the Ministry of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to clear the way for Seplat Energy to purchase certain ExxonMobil assets."
“Mr. President has given a clear directive to the NNPC GCEO and I to resolve the issue of divestment, and we are doing whatever we can to achieve that,” the minister said.
https://www.thecable.ng/tinubu-directs-lokpobiri-nnpc-to-resolve-issues-delaying-seplat-exxonmobil-deal/amp/
Last post: ulltaager, 29 May 2024 19:31
Well I hold 18k SEPL shares and have received $972 in my ii SIPP account, so that works out at $0.054 per share.
$0.006 must have been taken off for the 10% Nigerian tax.
As far as I am aware, a W8-BEN form is for U.S.A shares only, so although SEPL pay divi's in U.S $, then it will not save you paying tax on these shares.
I find it strange, that ii does not let you automatically re-invest your divi's in SEPL- not sure if other brokers are the same ?
I wish I had put more £ into SEPL ( with a 104p average), rather than TXP, where I am 50% down !
Good luck all holders here.
£2.50 or better still £3 here we come, soon I hope.
Started: SeaTank8300, 28 May 2024 13:00
Last post: alexeliasson, 29 May 2024 18:35
FYI, withholding tax on dividends from Nigeria is 10%.
When talking about dividends, it's always gross. In my tax jurisdiction, for example, I'm able to deduct the aforementioned withholding tax against other income making it close to zero tax.
Notwithstanding, looking forward to another increase of dividends next year. Substantial.
Congrats to the share price today, gents.
Bless
0.020906p per share with ii. Times that by 2 for double divi.
Trek
It depends on the jurisdiction. Nigeria imposes the tax, not the UK.
It's always been the case.
So foriegn investors have to pay tax on their dividend entitlement. Is this usual as its the first foriegn dividend I have recieved.
Withholding tax of 10% on dividends in Nigeria
All of my figures/forecasts in posts refer to net or gross regarding dividends. It has always been the case.
Started: middleEastMoney, 29 May 2024 17:58
Last post: middleEastMoney, 29 May 2024 17:58
Just noticed we have crossed £1b M/Cap
See you all tomorrow
Started: middleEastMoney, 29 May 2024 17:37
Last post: middleEastMoney, 29 May 2024 17:37
Bodes well for the opening tomorrow.
I cannot believe we have much longer to wait for sign off.
GLA
Started: SeaTank8300, 29 May 2024 09:02
Last post: BodRuncie, 29 May 2024 15:27
First dividend received today. Second dividend goes ex-div tomorrow (30th) and is payable on 14th June.
Hi Trek, apologies please remind me when we are no longer ex-dividend, as the SP will/should increase again.
Thanks
MEM
About 30 single share liquidity trades put through today to get the price moving. Now trades at +170.
Looks like this could keep going to 200p before news!
Very few sellers!
Usual caveats
Trek
In case you haven't seen this, many statements from these two on closing the acquisition...
https://x.com/senlokpobiri/status/1795720094602916310?t=9GzHVVW4SvXbj3OrNDOGww&s=19
We remain dedicated to the #RenewedHope reforms in the energy sector, driven by Mr. President's stir with a focus to making Nigeria’s oil and gas sector globally competitive by focusing on tax incentives, local content compliance, and reducing contracting costs and timelines.
I emphasized on this when I joined the Executives of ExxonMobil @exxonmobil, led by President Liam Mallon, on a courtesy visit to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the State House Abuja, discussing critical issues concerning our petroleum sector, and I had been directed by Mr President to sort out the issues of divestment between ExxonMobil and Seplat, prior to now.
We have advanced in stage on the settlement of all issues between the oil giants and hope to finalize that in the shortest possible time. On the issue of decommissioning, I hint the fact that the PIA has been a guiding framework for the Ministry in handling it and issues on abandonment with respect to global best practices
Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri Ph.D.
Started: BenHazz, 28 May 2024 14:43
Last post: BenHazz, 28 May 2024 14:43
1.5 million shares traded this morning in 4 tranches. Seems like an institution buying or selling. Here's hoping it is reflected positively in the SP.