Member Info for LucifersConsigle

@herminator, assume you will complete a self assessment return. You declare you have foreign dividend income. You return will then have a foreign section, declare Nigeria sourced dividends and claim relief. It’s not very intuitive, as always with HMRC online interaction, but that’s a basic outline. If you battle, just ask one of the LLMs to guide you through it.

This is an issue for Shell and BP trading operations. Not a HBR issue.

When do serious questions get put to the Board about a plan for redomicile in a less hostile jurisdIction?

That article is a year old! The company looks very different now.

BP's board does not have the intestinal fortitude to take the big decision to relocate. A much bigger step than exiting the North Sea.

Just been listening to the Governor of the Bank of England on Bloomberg. Bailey discusses oil price but very clearly has no idea that Brent as quoted is a futures contract price. Refers to “market volatility”, having seen a $10 fall in Brent today. Led by donkeys came to mind …

Brent contract rollover. Waiting for the conspiracy theorist posts …

Hmm. So you bought a stock with a huge overhang of unenthusiastic shareholders? Great value, but going to take forever to see it realised.

For all brave sould out there. The huge stock overhang created by major shareholders that want out is going to keep a lid on the price of this stock for quite some time. Which means opportunities for the brave to pick up shares at the prices they will accept to exit. Unfortunately, I have too many scars, courtesy of the UK Government trying to destroy this company. Call it PTSD. But good luck to the bargain hunters.

Long-suffering holders have to reconcile themselves with the fact that there is a massive overhang in this stock. So many shares in the hands of outfits that would prefer to move on…

Massive gift to energy trading desks.

@onedb, spot on comments. This board could use more contributers like you.

300 is taking on the appearance of an impenetrable wall for this stock.

About that spike lasting a feew months ...

No doubt current year FCF will be positively impacted. But DCF valuation looks out well beyond the current year. If the assumption is that POO returns to "normal" by next year (as it currently is), the DCF valuation is not going to deliver the very big valuation step-up that some are assuming.

It makes no sense expecting a big bump in price, off the back of what markets are still pricing as a short term crude prie spike. Only sustained higher prices will have a significant impact on HBR valuation. For example, XOM is actually down on a week ago. The October '26 futures contract price is currently $80-$81, so more than $20 below current spot. In short, suggesting there's a conspiracy or manipulation to depress the HBR price is unfounded.

Some posts suggest that HBR can and should do some hedging, given elevated POO. Not that simple, unfortunately. The forward curve is heavily backwardated. The market is pricing in a short spike, with a rapid return to lower prices. IMHO it is expecting normality to return a fair bit faster than the likely reality.

If partial nationalisation by stealth, by hiking tax rates from 40% to 78%, on the pretence that any profit is a "windfall" may make for a welcoming investment jurisdiction in your book. In mine, it is one to avoid at almost any cost.

I note from following some of the posts on this board that there are a fair number of people who trade in and out of HBR. My question is why would you choose any UK stock to do that? Surely stamp duties are a material factor for any trading? Why would you not trade stocks from jurisdictions that don't impose this Victorian (pre-Victorian, to be precise) relic?

I am not sure that signalling "that Harbour hasn't given up on the UK" is in any way positive. I expect that matters will become clearer over time, but if the capital used for the acquisition is not repaid by the benefits flowing from tax losses, I would strongly question the Board's thinking. If they have not learnt that the UK energy sector is uninvest-able by now, what will it take for them to learn that?