Member Info for LucifersConsigle

It seems that we read developments differently. I will say only this - financing a change to the identity of a shareholder clearly does not have a developmental impact.

Complex. Could write a book. Briefly, there was considerable opposition to Roger Brown's appointment as CEO in 2020, primatily on identity/nationalist grounds. Essentially, the ethnonationalist lobby within the company lost that one. Then, last year, Tony Elumelu, acquired Maurel & Prom's shareholding in Seplat. The acquisition price was largely funded by a debt made available by Afreximbank - a multilateral development bank. Think about that - development banks financing acquisitions of listed equity! No developmental impact. Just money for connected oligarchs. Elumelu promotes the narrative about Africanisation of control. He is now chairman, so pretty much has full control. He replaces Roger Brown, addressing the 2020 wounds of the identity/ethnonationalist lobby. Brown has presided over close to 1000% market cap increase during his tenure. Yet he is not offered a spot on the board. Governance concerns, much?

Far too many governance concerns now for me. I had a really good run with this stock, but I'm out.

@herminator, assume you will complete a self assessment return. You declare you have foreign dividend income. You return will then have a foreign section, declare Nigeria sourced dividends and claim relief. It’s not very intuitive, as always with HMRC online interaction, but that’s a basic outline. If you battle, just ask one of the LLMs to guide you through it.

This is an issue for Shell and BP trading operations. Not a HBR issue.

When do serious questions get put to the Board about a plan for redomicile in a less hostile jurisdIction?

That article is a year old! The company looks very different now.

BP's board does not have the intestinal fortitude to take the big decision to relocate. A much bigger step than exiting the North Sea.

Just been listening to the Governor of the Bank of England on Bloomberg. Bailey discusses oil price but very clearly has no idea that Brent as quoted is a futures contract price. Refers to “market volatility”, having seen a $10 fall in Brent today. Led by donkeys came to mind …

Brent contract rollover. Waiting for the conspiracy theorist posts …

Hmm. So you bought a stock with a huge overhang of unenthusiastic shareholders? Great value, but going to take forever to see it realised.

For all brave sould out there. The huge stock overhang created by major shareholders that want out is going to keep a lid on the price of this stock for quite some time. Which means opportunities for the brave to pick up shares at the prices they will accept to exit. Unfortunately, I have too many scars, courtesy of the UK Government trying to destroy this company. Call it PTSD. But good luck to the bargain hunters.

Long-suffering holders have to reconcile themselves with the fact that there is a massive overhang in this stock. So many shares in the hands of outfits that would prefer to move on…

Massive gift to energy trading desks.

@onedb, spot on comments. This board could use more contributers like you.

300 is taking on the appearance of an impenetrable wall for this stock.

About that spike lasting a feew months ...

No doubt current year FCF will be positively impacted. But DCF valuation looks out well beyond the current year. If the assumption is that POO returns to "normal" by next year (as it currently is), the DCF valuation is not going to deliver the very big valuation step-up that some are assuming.

It makes no sense expecting a big bump in price, off the back of what markets are still pricing as a short term crude prie spike. Only sustained higher prices will have a significant impact on HBR valuation. For example, XOM is actually down on a week ago. The October '26 futures contract price is currently $80-$81, so more than $20 below current spot. In short, suggesting there's a conspiracy or manipulation to depress the HBR price is unfounded.

Some posts suggest that HBR can and should do some hedging, given elevated POO. Not that simple, unfortunately. The forward curve is heavily backwardated. The market is pricing in a short spike, with a rapid return to lower prices. IMHO it is expecting normality to return a fair bit faster than the likely reality.