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Must say I was expecting a leaky ship today and sp to drop a tad. No indication at all. Put my trading pot back in now.
Trek
China - cheapest and best batteries. EU & US is miles behind!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/18/catl-chinese-battery-maker-evs-electric-vehicles?utm_term=65f7f6c94c7346a49aab7380b84b105d&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email
Trek
Clued its ticker for st James place. sTJ
Divi that makes sense. ‘Only closed books’
If so then that’s a pretty minor impact on that pf.
Obviously it will mean future books will be cheaper but that could actually put more up for sale at a cheaper price!
Who knows until we get RNS.
But this could soften the xd impact so may still get a recovery that way.
MNG report on 21st Phnx on 22nd if google correct.
We’ll find out soon enough!
Usual caveats
Trek
Phnx - bought more at 483. Regulator woes. Oversold imo. 70m is not big deal even if just for a quarter.
Hum - thankfully I didn’t buy! What a sht show. Even if I was to buy would be a small trade.
Tgr - could have got under 5 but don’t trust ceo. Wait for placing imo.
Upl - got a small position for a punt. Let’s see what next update is. They are funded and sp drops a tad after bond flip. Target 4p.
Dec - I was expecting it to drop today but looks leak proof. Trading pot there is back in. Fingers crossed!
Txp - added last week. Should see news end of March. CEO learnt his lesson imo and just releasing facts last RNS was understated over deliver. Next will be very very positive imo. But it’s gas and at the end of the day don’t matter how good news is needs folk to buy. Same as Dec in that respect!
He1 - still sat on my hands for another go. Have done most excellent there!
Usual caveats
Trek
The market thinks this is a STJ type of event.
A pity the water regulator doesn’t take the same stance!
https://www.ft.com/content/1a5bd8f9-a28e-41d0-b086-a3bcd6b493fb
This is for future fees. They must have guided a 70m impact. For what period don’t know but even if that’s a quarter 280m is still manageable.
For sure it will hit future revenues but there are lots of cost saving opportunities ahead as I posted before esp from AI.
I cant see this affecting the divi other than folk getting a higher yield with reinvestment!
For sure it rightly is better vfm for consumers but the whole industry is a scam. Every pension! What happens to the pot you built up over years of paying in once you and your partner die. It goes to the company or the state not your kids. That’s why folk should do their own!
Usual caveats
Trek
I added today at 483 as well. Will get more if it goes to 70’s.
Not long to results and preference all bad news is in market ahead of them
As this is a long term hold for me I see this as an opportunity.
Who knows Av may have a sniff after as they are on acquisition hunt!
Usual caveats
Trek
At least it’s from July and not backdated. They made 200m from acquisition savings so the 70m just means no spec divi. Given where sp is compared to lgen, av and mng something must have spooked it ages ago.
The numbers have been running ahead. 2 years early in fact.
This is obviously not good news but I don’t think it’s as bad given £5 as it would be at £6.80!
May see a steady recovery in sp once guidance is reviewed.
But then a change of govt could bring another sht show!
Usual caveats
Trek
TGR - great update there. Still the spectre of funding though. By sp now so low due to anx makes it a buy as could go up with funding given ops update today imo.
Usual caveats
Trek
Jilen….. ALGO bot invaded LSE. Posted on DEC reported.
Trek
CHAR should sell the green energy as well. Who knows may have tried. Looks like if sale doesn’t go through will need cash or if sale is delayed will need cash. I think that’s what peeled the sp back. V good longer term investment proposition though. Once funding sorted it should fly!
Usual caveats
Trek
Even more money left London last year! Uk pension funds now at 4.2% uk holdings. Down from over 50%.
‘Thankfully’ overseas investors are increasing.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/london-stock-exchange-shares-ftse-100-crisis-equities-fund-outflows-b1145526.html
Trek
Truss’s private members bill blocked…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/15/rishi-sunak-latest-news-tory-general-election-extremism/
Country will soon be in the hands of a bunch of woke social workers. Frying pan to fire!
Trek
caml and glen following copper higher on china news.
i have bought more ecor… coppper, cobalt, zinc and uranium.
not moved on copper price. sp on its ****. director bought recently but don’t trust divi.
look at the charts on cobalt, bottom in imo.
then zinc trying to break up through resistance 2600.
if they lift it’ll hit ecor bottom line as they are a royalty company so they dont carry the inflation risk. prob more aligned to interest rates as that’s the macro driver. gonna get more next week. director got loads and another lot at 76p.
for sure if you look at his buy price and sp one could say he has rose tinted on! but oftentimes these guys are too far ahead of the market in their thinking.
if you look at last results they were pretty sht but that’s because all the digging was on another royalty area. this time around it should be disproportionately on ecor’s acres! shhh
buy imo.
hum, political geo risk aside. it’s settled below last placing 11p + change and sp should move up soon as extra prod comes on.
i have never traded it before. anyone familiar with hum and what’s the liquidity like. esp the ‘scarper factor!’ lol!
usual caveats
trek
Ah well done Tro! Good week next week I think. Slice into the news!
Trek
Ya missed 88E Tro,
Huge vols there today. News next week. Obvious short term trade.
VOD - muted market response. Don’t like divi cut. Better income elswhere now.
DEC - I sliced a few to buy em back after results either higher or lower. I think I have called it wrong this time and it’ll go up but have to be sensible with my second highest holding! Yikes!
Usual caveats
Trek
Now 788.
I used to think shorts were part of the other side of the trade and gave balance. But having seen the lies, dirty tricks and market manipulation that oftentimes come with them and unchecked by the useless regulators. I think a ban is now the only way.
Just sold a few here today whilst in profit and have bagged the divi on 1800 shares for free!
No other reason than I am having cash ready to either average up or down following the results.
I think the results will be in line. What is often overlooked is volume of sales as opposed to price.
DEC are able to sell more hedged and less un hedged production. Even with the El Niño impact on gas prices there is a void for those that are fortunately hedged higher.
They are the right side of the hedging cycle next year as well and further out they are hedging at higher prices.
Good planning or luck. Probably a bit of both.
I also expect some cash has been kept to buy stock after the results to clear the tender price. I think we will see insti’s and directors make the most of the tax benefits by tendering and maybe even director buying after the close period.. 46p in old money from over 100p is a lot of bad news in the price!
But irrespective of my views I temper that as I always have done with being sensible by trading around news and price moves. It has served me well in the past.
That said it didn’t at SEPL as the price rose following results and this time here I may just be the wrong side as well by playing the odds. But in both instances I have been lucky to make on the trade overall. A bird in hand as they say. TBC!
Usual caveats
Trek
Vod sale 7.5x ebit good price but divi cut is disproportionately higher than buy back
‘FY24 total ordinary dividend expected to be maintained at 9.0c per share and ordinary dividend to be rebased to 4.5c per share from FY25 onwards;’
Still market will like it, bb gives institutions chance to sell out.
Will sp now go back over 100p. I doubt it. Even though euro is growing margins are still v slim.
I do think though once it settles it will become a reasonable infrastructure investment type share worth buying with growth from AI.
Africa and India are the real growth opportunities though not Europe imo
Usual caveats
Trek
Just read that as well….
“ FY24 total ordinary dividend expected to be maintained at 9.0c per share and ordinary dividend to be rebased to 4.5c per share from FY25 onwards;”
Better income plays out there now imo. Esp insurers like Phnx that are increasing dive and cheap atm.
Usual caveats
Trek
From DT hour ago….
‘ A group of Russian soldiers fighting for Kyiv who attacked Russian towns have urged civilians to evacuate within an hour and a half.
The pro-Kyiv militia, called the Freedom of Russia Legion, today renewed its call for civilians to flee Belgorod and Kursk, threatening large-scale attacks on military targets in the Russian border cities this morning.
“Immediately leave Kursk and Belgorod regions, all major population centers,” a member of the unit reportedly said in a video posted on social media. “We will open fire on military targets on this territory within an hour and a half after this appeal.”
Alexei Baranovsky, a volunteer soldier for the group, has said the aim of the daring strikes is to disrupt tomorrow’s Russian election.
Mr Baranovsky added that fighting has broken out in five settlements inside Russian territory, with footage circulating on social media of alleged strikes in Belgorod showing buildings and cars on fire, reportedly caused by shelling.
The counter-insurgency is one of the most public examples of Russian opposition to the Kremlin since Wagner’s mutinous march on Moscow last year under Yevgeny Prigozhin.’
————-
Also interesting article on how Czech’s got shells for Ukraine….
“……… Five miles west of Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops halted their retreat, turned and counterattacked. Finally enjoying something approaching adequate artillery support, they stopped the Russian offensive dead in its tracks in villages with names like Berdychi, Orlivka and Tonen’ke.
Artillery – a shortage of it – is the main reason the Ukrainians nearly lost a whole eastern oblast to the Russians this winter and spring. And artillery – a million shells brokered by a tiny Eastern European country – is the main reason the Ukrainians didn’t lose that whole oblast.
If artillery is the king of battle, the current kingmaker is … the Czech Republic.…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/13/ukraine-russia-war-czech-artillery-155mm-shells-avdiivka/
Trek
ECR - top of the risers yesterday. Placing today. But punters still think all that glitters is apparently gold. Yeah right! There’s a sht load more dilution to come there yet and that’s assuming they even have a viable acreage!
Usual caveats
Trek