George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
And Nigeria are loosing revs coz deal not done!
https://punchng.com/fg-may-revoke-unused-oil-well-licences-amid-30bn-loss/?utm_source=top-story&utm_medium=web
Trek
Hi buzz,
Not xd until 25/4/24. Payment 29/05/24 so should get the currency conversion rate on 26/04/24.
Usual caveats
Trek
I thought I had it wrong for a moment selling PHNX & MNG yesterday but glad I did now!
Trek
Hi deepjoy,
I agreed with all that on Friday but this week is different!
The world is changing so quickly.
Bouyant US jobs has meant Fed won’t cut now until possibly as late as September. Earnings out today have shown that the economy is super resilient so it can absorb higher for longer.
US 10years have kicked on to 4.6 now!
Then look at the weather. El Niño could see food inflation back on agenda. Esp in UK as farmers haven’t been able to grow crops in flooded fields.
Then the biggy is the ME tensions. Impossible to call but if Iran starts throwing drones about then the straights will be impassible even for US warships! Contrary to what they tell ya they cannot deal with waves of thousands of drones on after another! They couldn’t even bring down all 300 when Iran told them they were launching and the had hours to plan and react!
Any hostilities adds to inflation and even the spectre of $120 oil or more as well as the risk of contagion!
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that!
However, I am happier sitting in 505 cash which is a trading profit + a divi to come and being able to pick my reentry points that watching it threaten my previous average.
I will scale back in for the very reasons you say when I think the time is right.
Notice that none of this is negative Phnx. It’s just macro. There are stocks that should be more resilient and that’s the ones to invest in. Insurers have shown us they don’t do well in inflation/high rates. Even though ironically Phnx have beaten guidance it’s not viewed like that by the market. So that means one can likely get back in cheaper.
Gotta protect one’s capital!
Good luck.
Usual caveats
Trek
Hi buzz,
Mine are in an ISA with ii. I get paid in gbp. The divi is 3 cents a share and the currency conversion is announced by the company in advance of payment.
The next divi will be 6c as it includes a 3c special divi.
I am surprised at the pull back here today. Nigeria must be an international oasis and Nigerian HC’s will be in demand.
I get the macro impact from any hostilities and inflation but forecasts of $120 oil and local demand should net out favourably for sepl albeit obviously one would rather have a hassle free $80!
Usual caveats
Trek
“ Gone to cash with my insurers now. Can’t believe they gone up since selling!”
Well I think that was fortuitous timing from yesterday. Must say I did wonder when it hit 510. But one has to accept its luck if you pick the top or the bottom.
I am still on the sidelines here and will average back in when I think the time is right. Atm there is no hurry. It’s a long haul before catching the run up to September.
Atm I can use the cash to hopefully make some trading returns before tipping into here and MNG.
GLA
Trek
LNG pause could 'seed volatility', says ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/03/19/lng-pause-could-seed-volatility-says-conocophillips-ceo-ryan-lance.html?qsearchterm=ryan%20lance
Mentions AI demand
Trek
Meco,
lol!
Trek
Hopefully someone will catch him window shopping. That would pss on Iran’s chips as well then!
FTSE could go to 10k lol!
Usual caveats
Trek
Fxpo - that is some chart. But then you could have had Anto. Look at the 1 year there!
I sold all my PHNX, MNG and ECOR today.
All in profit and have bagged the divi. They will probably go up. But the thing is if Israel responds to Iraq it’ll be a step closer to war.
The only hope is their measured response in their own time = no response. But someone will wind it up!
The summer is usually poor for equities. So whilst it’s a pain that Phnx and mng are at their xd lows and EcOR is going up to 100p imo, the risk premium is against holding the insurers at least over the summer.
I have kept hold of sepl and Dec my main income providers as both operate away from ME and theoretically should benefit from higher energy costs.
Sepl is in Nigeria, internationally everyone’s friend and their economy is growing.
Dec is in US and Biden would allow more gas exports to Europe if the gulf becomes problematic so Dec then get a double shuffle benefit.
The other is Paf in SA but the divi is negligent there and it’s up from 17p with more ahead in imo.
I am waiting for Dec to pullback and may add more there.
Sitting on my hands is not my strength but watching the news the weekend and being 100% invested was also a concern!
If the market turns contagion can set in quickly. The ftse is near 8000 and although it’s really just a few stocks that have put it there it won’t take much to knock it back to 7000 or lower.
Then the receding tide will take the lot. Energy included but at least then I have some cash to pick some trades or add lower to sepl and Dec.
The obviuos question to ask oneself is would I have been surprised if the market opened down 400pts today. No. I am actually surprise it opened up esp after Dow was down albeit Dow futures are up slightly today. But even that could change in a blink.
So 1/3 out 2/3 in atm
Nice update at HEX today. At least it’s in US. All the more reason for state to eventually back it! lol!
Usual caveats
Trek
Hoping for a pull back now to add more.
I see this as one of the safer income plays considering ME tensions.
Gone to cash elsewhere now.
Trek
Gone to cash here now hike still in profit. Wait for ME to stabilise. Next xd not till sept so no need to have cash on risk in between.
If have to pay more so be it. That’s preferable to a correction.
Trek
Gone to cash with my insurers now. Can’t believe they gone up since selling!
Can see the El Niño winter adding to food price inflation + ME woes. Most don’t go xd until sept now so thought better off sitting in cash even if means paying more later.
I remember when Ukraine kicked off it was better off being out and waiting to buy back cheaper.
Hanging on to oil, gold and stocks with US ops.
Trek
Gone to cash with my insurers. Can’t believe they gone up since!
Can see the El Niño winter adding to food price inflation + ME woes. Most don’t go xd until sept now so thought better off sitting in cash even if means paying more later.
I remember when Ukraine kicked off it was better off being out and waiting to buy back cheaper.
Hanging on to oil, gold and stocks with US ops.
Trek
Sensible outsourcing this to experts
https://www.petroleumconsultantsmt.com/
It’s their ‘day job’ they will have all the local contacts both for regs and execution
Trek
Hi mick,
Message from Pectan11
“ Mick - obviously it’s upto you (and you won’t see this) but I’m not one of Jake’s aliases as Troajan should be able to confirm
Probably on your list after replying to some of his posts many months ago”
Trek
From cnbc
“ Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles against military targets in Israel on Saturday in an attack that President Joe Biden described as “unprecedented.” The U.S. intervened to directly help Israel shoot down nearly all of the incoming munitions, Biden said in a statement Saturday.
Though significant in scale, the Iranian attack caused little actual damage in Israel. The Nevatim Air Force Base in southern Israel suffered slight damage and a 10-year-old girl suffered severe injuries, according Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel Hagari.”
I always wandered what the resilience against a drone attack was.
So when you launch 300 drones and telegraph it across the world so the super-powers who are in area and have plenty of time for counter-measures get set. Plus you then have the last line of defence waiting in Israel.
Yet. Only ‘most are shot down’!
A 10 year old girl is severally injured and I guess many more.
But the point is what happens when you launch 1000 drones at a UK frigate ‘puffing its chest out’ in the Straits?
Or for that matter 10000 at a US carrier. Even if they shoot them all down. Burning some £1.5m a pop missiles taking out a £5k drone. What next on the third wave?
The straits could quickly become like the Black Sea. A no go! Or for that matter how Kharkiv is becoming but the world seems to have forgotten!
I think the defence ineffectiveness is why The West aren’t giving a kill count. They are pretty sht are ‘shooting clays’!
A critical lesson and back to the drawing board and/or a massive rethink on the laser tech!
As for our frigates, ‘sitting ducks’. They can’t even fire starboard and port simultaneously at scale. We can’t even stop a frigging boat crossing the channel! We don’t even have surface to surface missiles on board to hit land targets! Let alone have the armed services resources or supportive patriotic population for that matter!
I can see these drones taking a major scalp soon! Lessons will then be learnt! And the Palestinian flags will be celebrating in London.
What a fking self inflicted mess!
Trek
They’re all crooks mick,
Dunno what to believe.
My idea is you pay MP’s to do a proper job. 200k or whatever is the rate. I have no idea.
They are all pie in the shy numbers for me.
But whatever, then you make sure they have no directorships, no affiliations other than to their electorate.
They should be expected to attend local government meetings and be accountable for change and vfm in their communities and the serve their country and the principles of democracy.
6 weeks holidays max!
Get the right people in of whatever persuasion that are capable and passionate about improving peoples lives and that of our country….
Any takers….. I have no doubt there are thousands of folk out there but they are put off because of politics!
Oh the irony!
Trek
I just got it in cnbc - breaking news no numbers/detail though
Trek
Hi Blue,
Some weekend reading for you….
Interview, this is the best of the bunch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPBVtIHacJM
Admin doc. Read the lock-ins and see that 10m shred have to be sold on admission. That’s why the sp is stuck. You can see the vols on the LSE site. It won’t take long to clear. There is a 100k seller. Hence imo the current opportunity at 11p
https://wp-helix-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/04/Helix-Admission-document-final.pdf
Investor ppt. Summary of plan…you can see they are drilling a known helium fairway
https://wp-helix-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/04/Helix-Exploration-March-24-Final.pdf
Website,
https://www.helixexploration.com/
I reckon that the US DOE + a chip maker like NVDA or INTEL will invest in a helium supplier due to the recent shift in paradigm exemplified by DOE and FORD to protect critical Lithium supplies. So away from China and Africa. $2.3bn from DOE and rest from FORD…
See TRR RNS….
“ LAC has received a conditional commitment (the "Conditional Commitment") from the U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE") for a $2.26 billion loan under the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing ("ATVM") Loan PrograM”
“ General Motors released $320 million in funding in February 2023 in the largest investment publicly disclosed to date by an automaker in a company to produce battery raw materials, with the second tranche of $330 million expected before or in connection with closing of the DOE loan.”
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TRR/thacker-pass-23bn-loan-commitment-from-doe-iy3hztpjvd0xyoe.html
I hold TRR, lots of em! But the point is if you think laterally.
With the Chips Act and DOE security of critical commodities supply there really isn’t none much more rare and critical than Helium. it’s needed in defence and space expo.
So the He price is not the driver. The lithium price is on the floor atm yet it didn’t deter the US investment coz they are serious about protecting supply. That will be the same for Helium. If Bo finds it there will likely be other non dilutive funding options and premium offtake agreements to protect that supply.
If Trump gets in he will be more serious about supply than Biden but either way all we have to do is find the molecules and the funding doors will fly open!
Usual caveats
Trek