The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
My typo fat fingers q3 - q2.
Q2 scoping study
Q3 drills
Q4 flow test
Q1,25 detailed engineering for production.
Page 22
https://wp-helix-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/04/Helix-Admission-document-final.pdf
Q1 25 will likely need finance or a JV or state sponsorship or major customer investment 9helium user like spaceX/medical OEM). Or combo of any!
So imo q1-q2 is accumulation period ahead of q3.
Q2 catalyst is overhang clearing. So balance shifts in favour of buyers ahead of q3 drilling. So less buys will be needed to push sp higher.
That narrows buying window down based on volumes traded…
Over 60m traded in April. Plenty to dent the 10m concert party sale.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/HEX/helix-exploration-plc/trade-recap
So atm buyers that missed out on IPO are helping net out the sells.
Not many PI’s here. Many tend to wait for bigger price moves or riser stocks. They go by mcap v peers v cash so even paying 15p is cheap and it still offers momentum and plenty of upside.
These next few days are about as good as timing gets imo
But different reading of the same data is what makes a market!
Usual caveats
Trek
Hooray, that’s my trade printed at 10:10 real time from 08:51. So over an hour late!
In my opinion what is happening is the MM is using the Hereford 10m to feed the larger buys. That’s why there are so many delayed larger prints.
They may also be trading some as well. Scalping a few hundred quid and probably have a T20 running alongside their book as they pretty much know what will happen when the stock drys up and news hits. Double buying pressure!
The thing is these events are only dependent on time and obviously buyers emerging. But it will need less buyers to move the stock once the overhang clears. Which given the delays are an hour now and going by past volumes that must be pretty close.
They basically have had to refill the hopper from the 10m float or it may as much as be run dry now.
The MM will likely have parameters to sell the stock. It was in the listing doc that they have to sell but was an orchestrated sale. So they can’t go dumping it all in one go.
I am actually amazed it held above 10p. I was expecting a dip to 8p hence have waited before buying more. As I posted before a buy signal imo is the ‘strong’ 11p close which looks on now.
I also posted to expect to see a 1p and then a 2p rise day here. I think both are still on and more when ops news comes on.
That’s the key with resource plays. Go short on finance. Finance is done. Tick!. Then go long on ops. Ops is starting so buy. And ideally buy after finance and before ops news flow. Which is as near as possible now.
It’s also q3 so whilst one can never time it perfect these next few days are probably as good a window as any.
Helium is sought after and we will have loads! Bla! bla! …. lol! You get what I mean. Two valid options to play the same stock.
Usual caveats
Trek
Tro,
My 100k buy still hasn’t printed. See my post there.
What’s happening is the MM is holding the bigger trades and feeing it from the Hereford concert part pot. Once matched it’s posted. That imo is why all the bigger trades are printed late. My buy was at 8:51. It’s 10:05 now and still not printed.
Line must be engaged! lol!
I have posted HEX will do a penny in one day then 2p. Still time to average in.
I am in ‘big’ ‘only’ enough for a last 100k left now. One waits years for one of these to come along!
Usual caveats
Trek
Lol!
Every day is a bank holiday when you are retired!
Well actually it’s the opposite we have rules to follow.
1. No unnecessary travel on BH’s to add to traffic congestion
2. No DIY shops on Sunday
3. No shopping on a Saturday you get in folks way browsing with a slow trolly
4. Basically stay out of the way on a Bank Holiday and if your loved one’s do take you out. Expect a crap meal, rip off prices and crp service as it’s sooo busy! but pay with a smile!
Trek
So my 100k buy went through at 08:51:25…still not posted here….fkrs are sat on it as expected! Just like the other delayed trades!
Will get even worse when we get momentum, 30m mcap soon imo then 60m is possible before drill then even 100m on JV/find.
For sure 15m is a joke.
Usual caveats
Trek
Don’t matter that results are later. What matters is being told of another new date or why they can’t give one.
Take your pick coz rumours will start now…
Delisting
No one left knows how to use a calculator
Divestment of all assets
Takeover of company
CBA’d!
That’s why there are regulatory requirements.
I will contact nomad and MAR if nothing first thing Monday
Trek
Interesting
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-global-gold-production-in-2023/
Trek
Done my bit another 100k at 11.415.
I still think under 15p has plenty of upside.
SuperRoty,
Nobody likes to crystallise a loss but there’s an ov saying with some justification to ‘sell your looses and ride your winners’.
If you have money for momentum stocks then follow the momentum up not down. Bite the bullet. It should be funds you can write a large % off anyways but don’t sit and watch the whole amount disintegrate!
If it’s an income play and it’s trading within its bandwidth fine. But even then I sell and recycle a % to keep working my average.
As I don’t have any other income than from my investments I have two simple rules.
Rule one. Protect you capital, if you loose it you are out!
Rule two. See rule 1 !!
Easier said than done mind you!
Every now and again you get an opportunity like HEX come along with a good bod and a fully transparent financing package before you even look at ANYTHING else. Then you add up the chances of making money along the way. That’s what’s key here, there is a good chance you can take your capital out or a high percentage and get a free carry. And that’s all before the director lock-ins expire!
Oh yeah, helium is sought after and expensive, US security of supply, safe juro… blah blah.. it adds to the narrative!
Usual caveats
Trek
Out for now. Back later. Q1 will be a blinder!
Gold infographic…
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-global-gold-production-in-2023/
Trek
Https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-global-gold-production-in-2023/
Trek
TRR are in profit. Good set of results. You have to look at the data (the report is poorly set out imo, finance headlines should be first!) you see 2.3m NET profit v (3.6m loss). Nav up a little and gold as expected is driving net revs. Remember this is year end so q 1 will be better.
Question is if 3.25m cash with increase in gold revs = another asset being funded + admin costs. I think so.
Sp didnt go either way so I sold at evens as can come back later and went to buy HEX…. NT! of course it flipping was! So set orders so I can cook some breaky on this rainy day! lol!
Usual caveats
Trek
They should have at least spent the missed days!
Trek
Sold elsewhere can’t flipping buy!
NT for anything over 1000 shares. Only 5000 shares left at 11p after that it’s NT!
Have set buys but not optimistic that I will get more at my price. Will look back after auction.
They have 3 flipping brokers here which is pretty excessive imo and none with stock!
Usual caveats
Trek
“ Still feeling confident on TRR trek? Results coming up.”
Hi S O H,
Well I think given the recent commo prices it should be a good quarter but results days more often than not come with disappointment sp wise. folk take profits or we’re expecting more. Occasionally though one bucks the trend.
All I can say is look at the consistent director buys on the open market and often at a higher SP.
I think TRR is a great find. It’s so undervalued.
But I have no allegiance with any investment. I am actually thinking of selling next week maybe half before and half after or just half. Will see how it goes.
I will likely add to HEX before tro sticks his 6 figures in and takes it over 15p! lol!
TRR is in my trading pot and if I sell it’s not a reflection on my views of the company. I sold PAF recently at 25.05p from17p ish. Just thought I could do better after their run and that softened the blow from IQAI. I would buy PAF back though.
They may all go on to do well but HEX is the momentum play. There is no way that sp should have stayed above 10p!
I bought just in case I was wrong as I was expecting it to go to 8p by now. So I had plans to average down. But look at it. What an orchestrated churn of the Hereford concert party stock. I actually think their broker has been buying and selling in 100k - 200k blocks to get some extra bubble and hold up the liquidity.
I only say that because the volumes are such that the 10m should have cleared an age ago.
I also think the ‘instant messenger’ MM’s have been loading up with stock probably in parallel with a T20 ready to sell it back to PI’s that will chase imminent news.
Hence I am going top heavy so I can offload some stock to tro! lol!
Usual caveats
Trek
I didn’t know this. We’ll never really thought of it abut makes sense. Posted by Andii on DCTA.
“ A recent study in Southern California found tire and brake emissions in Anaheim accounted for 30% of PM2.5, a small-particulate air pollutant, while exhaust emissions accounted for 19%. Tests by Emissions Analytics have found that tires produce up to 2,000 times as much particle pollution by mass as tailpipes.”
https://phys.org/news/2024-05-toxicity-fresh-scrutiny-salmon-die.html
Trek
Yea it’ll have an orchestrated bounce. Cost me 11k that one. I sold most at a 50% loss. Just got a small amount left for posterity. I hope it comes good for cancer sufferers but the biggest cancer there is Trevor Brown. The CEO.
I am over it. Win some loose some.
Put the dregs into HEX. Sell the ones going down and buy the ones that are going up. That’s how to do it. Simples!
Reckon I will more than make up for my loss and that’s not chasing my tail.
Some investments are a pure speculation. But you only need one of those to come off every once in a while. I got a good feeling on HEX but I will slice when I think the time is right and put it into a boring income play and let the rest ride.
That way the divi’s and a few good trades more than make up for the odd losses. Keeps me in the game.
Just coz I sold most of my IQAI I wouldn’t advise others to do so. Imo it’ll have its day. Could even be the end if this month.
I sense you got some HEX tro?
You know how to play it. The roadmap is clearly set out. Hush hush! lol!
Trek
Add ROAD to that.
They were supposed to have delivered their results yesterday after 2 delays. Zilch. Not even an up yours RNS!
Director on compassionate leave. Obviously empathise with that. But why say yesterday when they needed longer. Why is it only one person that can do it? Why no updates?
Of course I hold! Thankfully just for a punt…. On results and further divestment! lol!
Trek
That’s the offer for TRIN. It’s a cracking deal. Lots of synergies and hedged prod.
Trek
Firstly at 61.9p I don’t think that’s too rich. Pheeew!
But if I wanted trinity I’d have bought their stock!
It does though show our robust revs will amortise the acquisition comfortably.
Other than that I have to look through here and TRIN RNS’s later in more detail.
Usual caveats
Trek
Mmmm…. Perhaps they can take their quota of immigration!
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-top-20-countries-in-debt-to-china/
Trek