RE: Breezy Tuesday21 Apr 2026 21:59
Here you go tro
Debating the CoS for ROST 2….
While Mendell Helium PLC (AQSE: MDH.PL) has not provided a formal CoS percentage, industry standards and recent data place the Rost 2-26 well's probability of success at the highest end of the technical spectrum for this stage.
Estimated Chance of Success (CoS)
Based on current operational progress and geological industry norms, the Geological CoS is effectively 100%, while the Commercial CoS typically sits between 80% and 90% for this specific scenario.
* Geological Success (100%):
* In petroleum geology, a "play" is considered proven once a nearby well (Rost 1-26) has already discovered and produced the target resource.
* Since a "twin" well is drilled at essentially zero distance from a known discovery, the uncertainty regarding reservoir, source, and trap is virtually eliminated.
* As of 15 April 2026, mass spectrometer analysis of the Rost Twin confirmed helium shows across multiple zones, proving the resource is physically present.
* Commercial Success (80-90%):
* Standard industry risk models place development wells in known fields at a 60–80% commercial success rate.
* The Rost Twin sits at the higher end of this range because its 7-inch casing (vs. Rost 1's 5.5-inch) is specifically designed to overcome the water-removal issues that previously limited the original well.
* Management has already secured a second jumbo tube trailer and proposed a facility sized for 1,000 Mcf/day, signaling high confidence in commercial flow rates.
Key Remaining Risks
The "Success" is now a question of flow rate rather than discovery.
* De-watering: The well's ultimate commerciality depends on how quickly water can be cleared to allow steady gas flow.
* Perforation: Success now hinges on the mechanical completion phase—scheduled to begin around late April 2026—to see if the identified helium zones flow at the expected higher volumes.
Trek
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