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The way I see it is that POQ could have chosen the long path again with a big capital raise on news of the SSH 1 well and chose not to. This in my opinion is quite telling. He has put away is number # 1 driver for a pitching wedge as he knows a deal to sell is close at hand. HE IS A GOOD GOLFER AFTER ALL. But a lousy promoter and marketer. Let's hope he has not put us in the same position we were in with Origin. GLA...Cammy
This is getting interesting again. Philip unfortunately sat on his hands the one time a number of years we had a decent chance to build cash reserves.
I’m not sure when there is any news coming but if BS is buying shares, I guessing he is not expecting us to file for bankruptcy. By continuing to average down, he is setting himself up for a windfall if a real player makes a bid for the company. On the other hand, more positive drilling results generate further proof of enormity of this asset. POODS
That is exactly where I'm coming from. The difficulty is you make an assumption(guess) as to the price reaching its lowest value but who knows that's the difficult part. Having said that what I can see is a huge disconnect between the current value I of the company and the value of huge reserves, which with the recent results they have proved they can develop.
There also appears to be certainty in what they can develop in terms of signing a contract to deliver certain volumes of gas.
Atb,
Northern
Marshmill/NorthernM: I had a standing order at US .09 that filled Thursday only to have a partial order at US .0875 filled on Friday. I don't know how low FOG SP goes but I can't help but pick up shares at this point knowing the potential reserves backing them up. What kind of SP response do we get on the two 3K wells to be drilled - I've given up guessing as I seem to always be wrong, but I'm convinced that in the end shares acquired at these prices will be well rewarded. GLA
I must admit it is a conundrum. It is hard to know when the sp will move but given the huge resource at some point if the company is to be sold then surely that will reflect a large capital value of the company compared to the share of the resource the buyer will be buying. All I think we can do is good and wait and if we do believe in the eventual much higher price then buy some more at what looks like the lowest sp it has been for some time between now and then.
Atb,
Northern
Share fails to move despite excellent news.
The stock is dead but not the company.
I hope it goes down to CAD 0.09 - 0.10. I will buy some Falcons in this price range as I think that the company is not far away from monetizing its assets.
I'm firmly in the Wetwater and the Newtofo camp when it comes to Mr Smallfish. I put him on ignore some weeks ago. I don't therefore get upset with a lot of the nonsense he writes on this board.
As for Falcon's future, matters are going to become a lot clearer once we find out how Tamboran is going to tackle its funding challenge.
Smallfish9: What did you mean with your following statement - "The only one here who benefits is the latter. Sold, done, out." I took that to mean you had sold and were done with Falcon? If so, why do you continue to provide this board with all your comments? You seem to indicate Falcon has no real practical value. If you are still invested in Falcon I apologize - Just trying to figure out which box to put you in.
Smallfish9 -- while your concerns about Falcon having almost zero value (5%) over the next 130 wells to be drilled around the SSH2/SSH3 site -- even Tamboran's own press release this morning (below) seems to challenge your position that Falcon's value is next to worthless.
While Falcon has pulled back on its fund raising requirements to 5% on that 51,000 acre block (and pushed Tamboran's and Daly Waters massive funding commitments from 38.75% each to 47.5% each on the next 130 wells) -- you seem to have discounted that Falcon, (and more importantly any buyer of Falcon) still has a 22.5% interest in both the remaining 950,000 acres in the Core deep blue area, along with 22.5% interest in the remaining 3 million acres that are covered by Falcon's three permits in the Beetaloo.
"The 1 million acres of deep shale in the Beetaloo West have potential to deliver
Tamboran’s gross Beetaloo Basin production ambition of 2 Bcf/d (~775 MMcf/d net to Tamboran)
(equivalent to more than 13.0 million tonnes per annum of LNG export capacity) for 40 years from a single
landing zone".
Smallfish -- even after discounting Falcon's share of the Pilot area of 51,000 acres (which is only 5% of the entire deep blue core one million acre area) -- Falcon is still has a forward discounted interest of 400 MMcf/d of that gas out of that 2Bcf/d total for just the dark blue core one million acre zone.
This is enough gas (just from Falcon's share of that one million deep blue core area) for someone like Inpex to commit to building their third LNG train in Darwin before their projected start date of 2030 for that third LNG train. What makes Falcon's non-operating position even more important for a potential buyer like Inpex -- is Inpex has no interest in being an operator, but rather just wants access to that Beetaloo gas at the very discounted cost of production (even after the ORRI's and gov't 12% tax rate are included).
Someone like Inpex couldn't care less about Falcon cutting it's interest down to 5% on that current 51,000 acre block -- as Inpex won't be looking for Beetaloo gas to be flowing to that third LNG train until 2030 for their third train proposed start date. While the fit with Inpex as a buyer of Falcon's share of the Beetaloo gas in nearly perfect-- their are numerous sovereign wealth funds in Asia, or other gas companies like EQT -- that won't be too concerned about Falcon missing out on that first 51,000 acre block, but rather will be paying more attention to the next two full length 3km horizontals (that Tamboran and Daly Waters will be paying 95% of the very exorbitant costs to prove up).
Large companies makes strategic moves for years and decades in advance.
Look at take overs of the past to see this. Again pointing to cove energy - they were sold in 2012 and the LNG is only just getting to the point of being monetised I'm the near term by those that hold interest.
It's completely normal for a big gap between sale and a full income stream to flow to whomever buys or is involved at that later time.
So, somebody is going to jump at the opportunity to pony up for a non-op interest with no decision making capacity on an asset where the next ten years of drilling activity will return 1/4 of the rate that the wells after the 130th one will? Not to mention being ruthlessly abused on fees and JV expenditures to get the gas to market?
I hope you're young, because the chance there's any value in the next ten years is inferior to every other player in the basin's potential tomorrow.
Why would there ever be a sale??? Except for the fact that the area is being gradually proved up and eventually major players will want to buy the asset. If Sheffield waits forever the train will leave, same with any other potentially interested party.
This is how small exploration companies succeed and how large companies can often avoid early exploration and the financial and PR risk involved in duds and misses
I'm sorry in advance. But why would he ever take Falcon out?
At every stage along the way POQ's inability to create a viable array of funding options just results in further dilution of the interest? Sheffield isn't stupid, he will play that cycle as long as he can.
There's no sign of it stopping, the pattern is relentlessly consistent.
Needs to be remembered that if he buys lots cheaply, he can pay more to buy out the rest as his stack has cost so little and his average takeover price will be between the two.
It's needs an additional party to also try to bid to get fair price - such as happened with cove energy.
Jumped from around 10-20p to 70p with first offer and then more bidders appears, £1.95 Shell, £2.20, final sale was 240p ish. Remember shareholders get to vote on accepting a takeover.
That's the type of scenario to get fair value.
I would definitely be looking at well over a billion to get near fair value, but it will need more wells. Hence the recent raise really was a positive.
If Bryan Sheffield is busy loading up with shares @ 6p then I assume he thinks (so do I ) they are worth a lot more than the current SP of 6.5p !