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I'm firmly in the Wetwater and the Newtofo camp when it comes to Mr Smallfish. I put him on ignore some weeks ago. I don't therefore get upset with a lot of the nonsense he writes on this board.
As for Falcon's future, matters are going to become a lot clearer once we find out how Tamboran is going to tackle its funding challenge.
The NR tells us that Tennyson Securities have been effectively asked to stand down after little more than six months in post. They were unable to deliver. It's a statement too by the Board that outside the US there's no appetite for projects like the Beetaloo.
BS and his partner have given the Board sufficient money and time to sort out its exit in an orderly way and I expect there will be a lot more focus in the next 12 months or so on bringing on board private equity and/or family funds who are based in the US, and are more credible partners than the 3 minnows to Daley Waters. Meanwhile It's very easy to judge who is going to come out on top in terms of the Beetaloo. in the next couple of years. The Falcon board with its emphasis on an an exit will win hands down over TBN .
Meanwhile it's very nice that our close friends/partners will give us so much cash for an ORRI in the 51,000 acres in the pilot project. It bodes well too that they are willing to step forward to acquire shares before the 90 day result on the SS1 well is announced next week.
Hopefully I can meet some of you again at the AGM in June.
The answer to your latest question 'can a buyer alter Falcon's decision re reducing its participation in the next 6 wells? Surely the answer is blindingly obvious and it would depend on the buyer {or a particular buyer} agreeing a price before drilling of the SS2 commences.
As for your earlier question I hope it's not too difficult for you to understand that a rational board of directors {like Falcon's} in this type of situation} always chooses what's best for shareholders i.e. to minimise share dilution and likely factor in under different scenarios the length of time before the asset is monetised.
Given our similar backgrounds I'm not surprised that Mr Poods and I are on the same page. He's very rational. Mr Longknife, quite frankly I fear you will likely further struggle if you find yourself disagreeing with Messrs Newtofo and Wetwater. As for Cavendish Securities I don't think they will change their target price until POQ announces his 90 day reading on the SS1 well at the end of April....at which time it might go up.
You do write such absolute rubbish Mr Longknife. Given all the facts it ought to be obvious to all that the Falcon Board of Directors have carefully looked at all the numbers and made the right decision. Obviously if the shares had reacted a lot more positively to the SS1 news {i.e. had been trading around 30 pence plus last week} a different decision might have been made.
Conversely if I were a TBN shareholder I would today be increasingly concerned that Riddle is all about stroking his own ego and couldn't care less how much the company's shareholders are punished and diluted as a result. It was no surprise that first reaction down under to the news was to mark down TBN shares.
As for the not so clever article posted on this board earlier today clearly the author did not do his homework before he wrote the article since he had no understanding for example why Hess was sent packing by Falcon and why Origin's CEO as it turned out was more focused on the short term opportunity of selling his company on, rather than creating more medium/long term value. However what he did get right was his conclusion that 3 minnows are not going to develop the Beetaloo.
You are wrong Mr WillowGrove. And for the record so are you Longknife = so very wrong indeed.
I stand four square with Mr Newtofo on this. I like too Mr Wetwater's earlier comments. Moreover I'm very confident that the list is a lot longer than you think Mr Smallfish. For the record there is quite a few of us who have reached the same conclusion as Mr P:oods.
Part of the problem for people like me and other larger investors is there is almost a dearth of shares on offer on AIM In fact if one was only trying to buy three quarters of a million shares it would push up the stock 30-40 per cent and one would struggle to fill the order..
The shares are very, very cheap right now, in reality the cheapest they have ever been since Bruner first came to London in early Summer 2006 to talk to a few of us at a private lunch arranged by Carina Corbett at the Claridge's Hotel in London. Everyone should realise that after the recent NR the Falcon play has been significantly de-risked. Personally I have now pencilled in a minimum take out price of 50 pence on AIM {USD0.60-0.65 depending on currency movement}, end 2024 early 2025, and if all goes well in the next 6 months or so none of us need rule out 75 US cents or more particularly if POQ can get more than one party wanting a slice of the Beetaloo prize at the end of this year.
Nevertheless I still say what would be the icing on the cake in the next few months {or before the end of the year}, were if Bryan Sheffield were to confirm what in practice is already the case that his team intends to formally take over the operating role from the current Tamboran management team.
Agreed Mr Hardrock....One can clearly gather a lot by what was said and what was not said in the Q&A and put in writing and left out in the NR. It's always good to have a read of the latest accounts and notes to the accounts in the light of our CEO has shared with us. The latest as near all of you have witnessed says a lot about POQ's style which tries to ensure that he does not over commit or over promise because he's acutely aware there's increasingly the risk in this sector of problems come out of left field. That's what he's delivered over the past 10 plus years and that's why the board and shareholders including Bryan Sheffield have backed him.
There was no mention of any amendments to the partners' agreement so we can confidently glean the board's time horizons don't stretch to building pipelines etc required for the pilot delivery. I read into that the Company is focused only on raising sufficient funds - around USD 14-18 million dollars - to fund their 2024 programme. {It also makes sense that if you raise new money in tranches, the second tranche almost certainly could be raised at a higher price}.
There's no announcement yet on additional reserves, preferring instead to wait for 90 day test results on the SS1 well to increase current confidence levels in the flow rates in the deep areas beyond 85-90% to 95%. That's why the board will also be additionally keen to fund in full the first two 3 kilometre horizontal wells as it will further encourage the slide rule guys to pencil in and/or confirm little more than one year payback times on the new wells and higher probability of commercial development.
If the partners can achieve equivalent similar flow rates over the next 2 wells {i.e. >18mm per day} if nothing else this will ensure many of the larger US players will sit up and take notice and there will be increasing interest from the south, south east and east Asia sovereign wealth funds. I'm therefore increasingly confident that POQ and his team can monetise the company's asset in the next 12-15 months.
POQ has now issued a NR drawing everyone's attention to the three TBN NR's, issued on the AX.
The second TBN NR refers to an uplift in the Best Estimate of the C2 reserves. The third to the TBN presentation. What will resonate well is TBN management's comment that 'We are now a development company....., and Shenandoah is where we are going to develop'. The TBN presentation includes a chart on page 12 which is very useful. It's a very helpful timeline chart highlighting what's planned in 2024 and 2025 subject to agreements with Native Title Holders, landholders and key stakeholders. Another 4 horizontal wells will be {hopefully} drilled in 2025 in addition to the 2 planned in 2H 2024, as well as 300 km of 3D seismic, a 40 MM cf/d compression facility and the start of a 35km pipeline.
The London AIM will be guided by the brokers Cavendish/Cenkos and Tennyson Securities tomorrow. I expect the Falcon Q&A at 16.00 London time will highlight inter alia any intended changes in the Partnership Agreement.
Falcon shares will open strongly tomorrow in London. I have little doubt the Market will increasingly view Falcon in the next few months as a hot takeover play.
CORRECTION
My post 30 minutes ago wrongly stated that TBN intended to test the Amungee 2-H and 3-H wells. It should have read instead that the the partners intend to drill two new Shenandoah South wells in the 2Q 2024 and commence testing in the 2H 2024 {one of them for 360 days}.
Very good Beetaloo 30 day test results p[published by Tamboran 40 minutes ago on the ASX. SS1 Well delivered 6.4 MM cf/d per 100 metre lateral. Planned 3000 metre horizontal wells planned to be drilled in the 2H 2024 expected to deliver >19 MM cf/d. Amungee 2 and 3 wells also to be tested in 2 H 2024. SS1 well flow rate achieved exceeds current average rates in the Marcellus in the US. Tamboran has enough money for now. Tamboran's next round of funding will be in the the Summer this year
TBN's presentation kicks off in 11 minutes.
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Once authorisations are in place the partners will give the green light to the Pilot Scheme..
very good call mr hardrock...…. and another attraction for them is the past connection to the sheffield family {scott sheffield, bryan's father was a non exec director}, and all the benefit they might accrue partnering with a team that have enjoyed so much successes at p****e inc and pioneer natural resources inc.
bryan sheffield's current private equity fund investors and/or a second fund might also be alternative farm out partners for falcon and tamboran.
in the meantime i'm waiting to hear whether the partners will still go ahead with the shenandoah north and the ah-3 wells, and their estimated ultimate gas recovery {including the ultimate recovery factor they're now applying} from the ss1 well in addition to its 30 day test flow rate
very good call mr hardock............ and another attraction for them is the past connection to the sheffield family and the benefit they might accrue partnering with a team that have enjoyed previous successes at p****e and pioneer in the us..
Absolutely right Mr Newtofo there will be a long list of suitors for Falcon Australia's 22.5% stake in Beetaloo if it were to turn out that the the flow rate at the SS1 well in the 30 day test period exceeded the equivalent of 5mm per day over 10000 metres.
However there are tax drawbacks normally if a company sells part of an asset rather than the whole.
POQ wrote to Falcon investors on Monday inviting them to 'a very important Q & A on the SS1 well results {at 16.00 UK time} and what this means for the Beetaloo in general and the p[lot development programme in particular.'
To interpret it as Greenlanteren describes it on this website is very difficult to understand. Quite frankly like many others on this board, I don't understand this person's motives.
The majority view is that we can probably be sure that the fracked well is expected by all those involved to flow at or in excess of a rate that POQ has previously described as a commercial rate and one that would lead to the partners authorising a pilot scheme later this year. That's good news of course but if our partner Tamboran {TBN} is going to successfully raise money in the US with the help of BS and family and friends, and with the support of the US companies Liberty and H & B, the flow rate must be close to the stellar rates that management told anyone who would listen in Australia and elsewhere, and the Beetaloo in the Northern Territories is the equivalent of the Marcellus in the US.
As a Falcon shareholder I sincerely hope that although none of their doing the Falcon board has not been let down by others on this. Hopefully it turns out there's no need to be concerned. On the other hand we'll only get the degree of bounce in the shares we all crave for, if POQ can also assure the Markets that Falcon has the funds to participate in the partners' programme in the next 12-15 months.
May I politely ask you Mr Schlemeil to be very careful indeed next week not to reproduce anything on this board that you have only had access to on the basis that it's confidential to you.
Can I also encourage all of you to read the Tamboran comments on the Hot Copper page down under. Some of you might particularly want to read Odds and Evens comment at 09.42, 87 Crash comment at 09.17, and the second paragraph in Davdent's comment at 10.35 which reads 'It would seem the reason for the webcast is to increase interest in Australia and the USA so that they can raise the capital to...prove the commercial value of the resource.....' and his conclusion in the final sentence of his third paragraph which reads 'It is very hard to see how this can be anything other than extremely good news!'
I repeat again the Riddle statement is quite extraordinary, If the announcement would have been made after the close on Friday 23 February I would expect the ASX would as a matter of course enquire into the nature of the announcement and consider suspending the shares before the opening on Monday 26 February and allow recommence of trading the following day.. One cannot therefore rule out now that the ASX will be on to the company asap before the Markets open down under this morning.
In the meantime everyone on this board has the opportunity to sign up to the Tamboran presentation and Q&A next Monday at 09.30 Sydney, Australia time. All those interested will find the link on the Tamboran investor relations page.
One can reasonably assume that Riddle et al have been somewhat concerned by the weakness in the TBN share price . This morning it seems they've decided they have an urgent need to announce in advance that the 30 day test results will be announced next Monday on the 26 February 2024 on the ASX,
I believe Riddle et al receive reports every day from the SS1 well and by now they would have already received at least 3 week data. With that in mind it feels like they are almost desperate to tell us they have gone all in,,,,,, Extraordinary!
I appreciate very much your change in sentiment towards Falcon in recent months Mr Camelot, reflecting your recognition that we may finally have a favourable wind behind us. I think the latter is right and we're going to find out how true in the next 10 days or so.
POQ states that the partners will give the go ahead to a pilot development in the Beetaloo if we can achieve a flow rate in our 30 day test equivalent to 3 mm per 1,000 metres. On this basis two firms of brokers in London have crunched their numbers, put a probability into their equations and have come up with 36/37 pence target prices for Falcon on the London AIM. I think at this stage this is is the best guide that we have.
The short term prospects of Falcon's share price will depend on what the partners tell us after completion of the 30 day test. POQ has given everyone guidance if the well achieves a 'commercial' rate. It's clearly going to be a different ball game if for an unknown reason the flow rate does not meet POQ's hoped for rate. On the other hand the 37 pence target price will also be altered if the flow rate can be realistically compared to a figure in the Marcellus in recent times no doubt because the company would become overnight one of the hottest takeover targets in its sector. {There's also many other scenarios in between}.
What happened in 2016 is not a guide. Bryan Sheffield, H&P, and Liberty coming on board at Tamboran and replacing Origin is a big game changer. Tamboran's plan to transform itself and gain a quote in the US is also all important. The fact we have a 22.5% stake in the multi layered play in 4.6 million acres of the Beetaloo Basin with an immediate prospect of commercial development is going to buoy hopes in the next 10 days or so.
Inevitable speculation will probably mean Falcon shares will rise a little next week but don't expect any larger players to cast an eye an eye at the two minnows {Falcon and TBN] until the partners tell us the 30 day results and what are their plans in the next 12-18 months.
Not sure that's right Mr Smallfish. When the decision was made the partners agreed to select two locations - the A3H well very close to the A2H well - and the SS1 well. The former was clearly selected after the Riddle team had messed up so badly at the A2H well site. However the SS1 well in a deeper location was drilled and fracked first.....and since then Riddle et al have made statements to the press talking up strongly the SS1 flow rate and even telling the leading newspaper down under, The Australian, before the ASX, that the 30 day test had commenced on the 25 January 2024.
Riddle and his team, some will recall, didn't hold back either in the Spring last year over the A2H well. Hopefully we won't now have a repeat of what happened then and we'll discover {before the end of this month} confirmation that Bryan Sheffield's Daly Waters team, including a former Pioneer engineer they have brought in from the US, have made a much better fist of things as Riddle et al are openly stating.
In this context, as I understand it, Mr Hardrock is now wisely asking if it's shown that the A2H fracking issue was so easy to fix, can one question with hindsight the partners' decision to drill the A3H well last year if at the end of this month they can demonstrate a commercial flow rate at the SS1 well site and can announce their intention to press ahead with their pilot scheme at the location.