Member Info for BorntoBouggie

I’m totally surprised that some of the posters post the Investor Meet call still don’t fully comprehend the direction of travel. There has always been a stream of small sales predominately by Canadian retail in recent years but what has changed with real news imminent and so many good things in the past 18 months is the Falcon team have been able to pitch to more experienced investors that have bought shares in larger blocs.And what has facilitated this are tools like zoom that have made it possible that different Falcon people can come on a call and talk say to London, New York and Houston. What’s more don’t underestimate the help our team also receive with Bryan Sheffield and his team also on board.

And these new investors of course unlike some people on this board understand the significance of the fracking results if and a big if of course, they turn out as good as most stakeholders are hoping for.

The figures for proven reserves will of course rise but more important so will the discount factor applied re the probability of commercial development from 10 to 25-30 percent and might rise again after the next well or two. What’s more they’ll be excited that the team are also focusing on costs and the savings that will now accrue after their contract auction.

If some of you can also listen to some of the debate on CNBC at Davos you’ll also understand more the global demand/supply story, particularly outside North America in the next few years. and the effect of the Chinese market reopening….

Can I humbly suggest you have a read of my post on this board last weekend. We are in much better position than TBN and EEG……,I expect our team will have several options available to them by the end of the year, if the results are as good, and it’s a big if as most stakeholders are hoping for.

i suspect Mr bluewiley you will benefit by listening to every word on the call today and draw your own conclusions and/or speak to your own financial adviser after.

Investor Meet press release. Conference call on Wednesday at 16.00 GMT. If you can't catch it there's normally a recording.

Larger investors in London this eek have pushed up FOG shares this week partly in anticipation of an update some time next month from the Beetaloo as well as their cognisance of the FOG shares relative discount to its partner Tamboran (TBN). Consequently the FOG shares' discount to TBN has narrowed but it's still less than its notional value (based on TBN's GBP 200 million (AUD 347 million) market cap on the ASX - which would be 11.1 pence.in UK currency.

In making these comparisons TBN owns 38.75% of the Beetaloo whilst Falcon Australia own 22.5% ;and FOG and Bryan Sheffield's private company are being carried by TBN on the current well and the second former Origin well and some of what might follow next. TBN like the other Australian minnow company EEG will be looking to raise new capital therefore later this year or early next and unlike FOG are further strapped because they have already raised money selling a royalty on future sales to Bryan Sheffield.

I have little doubt when it comes to it that their cash raising will be the catalyst for significant changes in current ownership of all the players in the Beetaloo.

The FOG board have obviously anticipated this and that's why POQ and his team so wisely set out to increase their options recently as much as possible in the next few years so that the company would not be at the mercy of a single predator who is in a position to take advantage of (however temporary) short term share weakness..

If and it's a big if of course, the fracking news from FOG and TBN in the next few months is as positive as all all the stakeholders in this project are hoping for, third party interest in FOG's 22.5% stake will immediately increase and many of the foreign government entities will know too that not only must any bid be competitive but it must discount too further successes when the partners complete the rest of the former Origin drilling programme and may be the next stage as well. That's why I strongly believe that after next month's fracking news release the most eagerly awaited next step will be the announcement by the partners of what they are planning to do next.

As 2022 draws to a close the countdown now begins as to when there will be further news from Mr Ritter’s TBN from the heart of the Beetaloo Basin.

The vertical well has been drilled . The casing has been done (ask Hardrock and Newtofo for more details) and the horizontal must now be near finished. Have they managed 1000 metres this time??. Surely their prep work must have helped them??. Let us hope.

Actual fracking might not be immediate. The local weather might or might not create a few issues (it rains a lot). On the other hand the timeline will be helped by the location of the drilling. This is not the time to be too cute.

The local community clearly are beginning to understand now how transformative the Beetaloo might be to all current and future generations - proper education (primary, secondary and university for boys and girls) , full employment, longer lives, improved diets and Heath care for all

And when the news comes don’t count on Mr Ritter wanting to be a little shy…..,

Seasonal greetings.

Arbitrage between the markets continues and not only between AIM and the TSX. The last 2-3 days has seen a turn being made as TBN shares on the ASX have been sold off and Falcon shares have bounced a little on AIM and the TSX - albeit assisted by some Directors’ buying. TBN shares are down 5 this week to 22 cents - that’s almost 20% - and back to the issue price at the end of October.

TBN shares still trade at an unwarranted premium but it is down now to 33-34%. from the 50+% last week. Without the premium Falcon shares would be trading at c9.6-9.7pence on AIM and near 15 cents on the TSX as I suspect TBN shares do not necessarily have further to fall

I suspect movements in the TBN share price and its level of premium or discount that the shares will trade at compared with Falcon shares will warrant increasing attention in the next 12 months or so by the Markets:

In the meantime given time is money and rising interest rates everywhere bar Japan and COVID gripped China, one cannot overstate to Falcon shareholders the benefits now accruing from the removal from the scene of Mr Calabria and his…..

Nothing better than putting Tom Layman into a position to say not only do I recommend this play but I’ve put my hand in my pocket myself and acquired a million shares.

It’s one thing if say the CFO buys a few shares it’s quite another if someone of Tom Layman’s knowledge and experience has taken this action.

My reception where I am has not been so good in the last 48 hours and I’m a long way from the UK. However reading the latest this afternoon I fully endorse Mr Newtofo’s reading of Tom Layman’s recent moves in the market. He is not of the view that TBN shares are too dear and obviously likes the arbitrage opportunity for Falcon shares on AIM and the TSX relative to TBN on the ASX. And he’s rightly concluded that if drilling results are quite good there’s far more upside for Falcon shares than TBN.

This is IMHO very positive news indeed.

The EEG press release this evening further emphasises the cheap rating of Falcon shares on AIM and the TSX EEG shares have not performed very well either but despite its reported figures not comparing very favourably with. those in the Beetaloo Basin, EEG’s market cap of AUD 147 million (equivalent to GBP 81 million) still exceeds Falcon’s in the last couple of weeks by 10-15% or more.

I think we all hope that our team will look to swing into action in the New Year if the drilling restate are as positive as POQ genuinely hopes. A combination of good fundamentals and a nice arbitration opportunity with it ought to create a bit of excitement.

I’m not too surprised that the two non execs have put their hand in their their pockets and bought a few shares. The decision also to accept share options at a premium price was another good sign yesterday. Falcon shares in London and Toronto are trading this week (and most of the last month) without any reason at a 35-40% discount to Tamboran shares on the ASX in Sydney Australia. That is not going to continue and as and when we finally receive the results of the original Phase 3 programme next year Bryan Sheffield and friends will want to roll up their sleeves and do a bit of sorting out pdq. Two sets of back offices and two bands of executive and non executive directors waste a lot of time and money ….Too many cooks spoil the broth will be another thought that will quickly come to mind.

Whatever happens POQ has played a blinder to retain all his options but at the end of the day Falcon was and still is an exploration company and does not have the skills to deliver energy resources for the next 20-30 years or so to Australasia and South (and south east) Asia. He is likely very keenly aware too that there are at least three parties now, if the drilling results we’ve all been waiting for are positive, who will want to move early and pre-empt others’ moves in 2H 2023..

What is the point of having a quote on a public stock exchange if daily turnover is so low and the shares trade in countries that no longer value the product. And none of us can be totally confident that Mr Ritter et al will get the hang of diplomacy with all their stakeholders over the next few years. Would Santos put money on this and what do the politicians think In Canberra

Shares always travel better when anticipating good news…and more good news etc etc….I’m still expecting closer to a dollar than 50 pence but where I differ so significantly from the handful of sages on this board is if, yes if, we get good drilling results next year monetisation is going to come a lot sooner than they all think.

In the meantime like Mr Poods and Mr Newtofo I’m astonished I continue to have the chance to accumulate more shares at these levels

Have you spotted the error? I have done so now. TBN of course don’t own 77,55% of the Beetaloo they own only half Origin’s 77.5%

The amended FOG equivalent price is not GBP 60 million , it’s GBP 120 million which means that FOG shares should be changing hands at GBP 0.12 or more which is the equivalent of UD0.145 or just under CAD 0.20

Apologies. But this means the upside for Falcon is much more!!

That’s not new news Mister E, It’s simply confirming the results of BS’ subscription for new shares in the TBN cash raising last month that helped fund its Origin deal.

I hope the following might clarify some of misinterpretations recently posted here…

Recent TBN price = AUD 0.26
TBN market cap. = AUD 368 million
Equivalent FOG market cap = AUD 107million (22.5/77.5 X AUD 368 million)
GBP FOG market cap = GBP 60 million
Actual FOG market cap = GBP 69.4 million

In summary the figures show (no surprise at all) that FOG shares on the London AIM trade at a 15% premium to TBN shares on the ASX.

Most analysts anticipate in Australia and in the UK that the premium will increase more next year if drilling results are favourable. National oil companies will increasingly look to see if they can buy in a stake from POQ in the Beetaloo and if Bryan Sheffield and partners want to maintain their interest they’ll have to preempt others and put their money on the table early and as soon as the second half of 2023..

Conversely this time next year TBN will be again looking for new cash, and again Ritter will find himself again over reliant on support from BS..::and that means BS will ultimately fix a price that is clearly in his favour. to provide further support for the Beetaloo project.

In the meantime I’m very encouraged today by the latest FOG share option news (and the level of premium on the strike price) and Macquarie’s decision to grant EEG an albeit very small AUD 10 million revolving credit facility on their Beetaloo project..

Are you quite sure Mr Scinceday1? Can I kindly suggest you check the Maths.

You are right Mr Guernica. Some of the comments and conclusions in this article are totally bizarre. She obviously has no idea that there are other sources of supply from Africa, Azerbaijan and the Turkic countries, Israel, Lebanon and Egypt and the US.

And we have further news this evening. TBN have put on their website a new company presentation which is to get an airing at their AGM and their investor Q & A session that follows the AGM.

The Board should thank you again and again Mr Newto setting aside so much time patiently responding to sometimes very bizarre comments.

From my point of view I find more interesting this evening the interview that TBN's Mr Ritter and a broking analyst that have been aired on the Australian website Share Cafe. In particular Mr Ritter's comments on its new shareholder who are leading player on shale gas development in the US is quite enlightening. You'll also see that that analysts down under are very bullish indeed on TBN shares in the next 12 months and if they're only 50% right the upside for Falcon shares at today's very low levels is at least double theirs.

Those listening to the 2 interviews should put up again what I recommended yesterday, reading the EEG press release that contained such good news on drilling times and drilling costs.

In the meantime Mr Newtofo it’s very worthwhile if you have the time to read EEG’s press release down under this morning. On the face of it it contains very positive news indeed on drilling times and drilling costs. We can pencil in too more news from EEG in the New Year.

I also take at face value recent comments from TBN, EEG and Falcon that all 3 are sharing latest operating info with each other.

All this in the context of the meeting yesterday between President Xi and the Australian PM. In Bali and their positive comments after the Meeting.

I'm delighted to read that some of you have excitedly turned the page and are now seriously sitting down to plan your golf trips to the Republic in the next couple of years. I myself still believe that monetisation will come a little earlier than Mr Newtofo is predicting but I think it's best to put that debate aside and turn our full attention first to the two planned horizontal wells.

I want POQ to tell us straight next week a bit more on what went on behind his and Falcon Australia's owners' backs. What is already clear to at least some of us is the extent Mr Calabria and Origin's (very) poor behavior to POQ and FOG. We can't fix it but some guidance from POQ on what remedial steps the Company is now taking to reduce the pain and cut out similar action in future would be very welcome.

I'm also looking for confirmation next week that the first of the two horizontal wells have been spudded. And linked to that an indication of how much knowledge has been transferred from the Tamboran j,v. or EEG on best practise for drilling and fracking. What's more, if it's already been decided, Can the Company give us confirmation that our new drilling partner (see TBN investor page) will be in position to take on its key role on the second horizontal well.

I'm disappointed the share price remains so low. On the other hand like Mr Poods I've bought a few more. I realise however significant interest at least on my side of the pond will not pick up until the prospect of commercialisation starts to increase. The substantial tax incentives offered to some UK investors on London AIM are not enough.I welcome therefore any plan to work with Bryan Sheffield and our non execs. when more news come through to support more our share price.

The jungle drums are beating out a louder and louder message in North America that the Beetaloo compares well with Marcellus. There's even evidence this past fortnight of increasing interest on the US OTC and the TSX. I want now POQ's confirmation that the new j.v. partners are going to be a lot more focused of proving up our find and are committed to keeping all investors in the j.v. fully informed.