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Dprussy ought to be very pleased with this deal, and Mr Riddle and his board must be absolutely delighted that this deal does not now require Origin Energy shareholder approval.
What I’m looking out for now are the BS terms for funding TBN on this transaction.
I don’t think POQ and the team are going to be upset with this turn of events either. FOG now have professional partners who are going to accelerate future development of the Beetaloo and our share price will no doubt in due course benefit from greater US interest in the Basin.
I was going to suggest Mr dprussky hi hat you should have the patience to wait until next week but of course I had forgotten you were no longer an investor in FOG.
Overall I think I’m agreeing with Mr Newtofo on this one. To try and guesstimate logically what is Mr Calabria’s strategy on his deal this weekend is going to be rather difficult. What I recommend instead is one should try and put in one’s minds an Origin board of directors, with worry beads in their hands, have turned themselves into very distressed sellers.
Mr Riddle I’m sure, is rubbing and rubbing again his eyes and probably can’t quite believe his luck. His oil minnow company going nowhere for the rest of the year is probably going to buy a stake as large as Falcon’s in IP98 for a knockdown price and two horizontal wells that will be drilled before the end of the year. What’s more he has at least 2 willing partners, Bryan Sheffield and Helmerich and Partners.
I presume Mr Sheffield will use his family trust vehicle (rather than his private equity firm Formentara - it’s worth reading the firm’s website - but the latter will give him all the expertise that he requires to deal with Mr Calabria in his current state..
I don’t believe that Falcon has any direct involvement in this deal except ultimately if the lawyers can all agree final terms (time diffences will hold things up) Falcon will then be asked to sign off the deal at the bottom of the page. Whoever are the buyers they will of course have to commit to complete Phase III of our drilling programme which thanks to Mr Calabria is not now running on time.
My guess is Origin are exiting the equivalent of circa 15% of their total holding in the Beetaloo but a very much larger proportion (at least 50%) of IP98. That being the case management of this year and the next 2 years’ drilling programmes will change hands and hopefully this will significantly reduce some of the frustrations we’ve all had in recent periods. Both Tamboran and ourselves are also now going to have a much higher profile in the US and no doubt in due course a re-rating of both. Companies’ shares.
In the meantime I wish Mr Calabria and his board all the best for the future and hope they find an opportunity early next year to sell on their stakes in the two other Beetaloo areas.
In the original Origin /Facin deal Origin did not acquire its ‘interest’ in the Beetaloo until it completed in full its drilling programme. One has to assume therefore this requirement was watered down when Origin agreed with Falcon to increase its spending on the project.
Meanwhile dealings in TBN shares have been halted this morning on the Sydney Stock Exchange with an indication given that the quote might only be restored on Monday 19 September….An early announcement by the Company is expected.
If Origin is looking to raise (urgen) funds by selling a circa 15% stake in its holding of circa 3.5 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin for AUD 150 million it should be clear why Mr Sheffield and others would be interested in staking TBN to complete such a deal.
Ultimately Cenkos view on this deal when it’s formally announced in the next few days ought to interest reading.
I'm going on vacation before Christmas in Angola and Namibia and one or two other places, and early next year I'm in southern Africa again, travelling as far north to the Victoria Falls and the Zambezi on the Zambia/Zimbabwe border before travelling west into Botswana in the Okavango Delta. The Karango Basin is a small area within the delta, on its west side near the Namibian border. Whatever the Botswana government decides it wishes to do in the Okavango Basin has no relevance whatsoever to the Karoo basin in South Africa. Like sensible people on this board I remain content that POQ does not waste any material time on Hungary and South Africa and I am very pleased too he continues to take the time to update us on the outlook in these two regions at the company's regular investor gatherings.
What I'm focused on is the small bet that the Sheffield family have placed on the Beetaloo basin and the fact they're clearly very confident that they'll be in a position to collect early next year. They already have plans to roll the dice again almost certainly with some of their Pioneer partners, given the latter will be looking for a new play with all the dividends from Pioneer Inc. I'm presuming FOG will play a significant part in the next round if especially if its paper earns for itself a justified (significant) premium compared to the less well-endowed TBN and EEG stocks. However if the drag from retail investors proves too much no doubt our American investors will consider buying us out.
in summary what I'm saying is the opening up of the Beetaloo will by the middle of next year be entering into a new phase, and either larger investors will have driven our shares higher to 45-50 pence or more, or the Sheffield family and friends will use a different vehicle to buy us all out (since they'll conclude there's no merit in FOG retaining its quotation). . In the meantime forget the silly posters on this board, the directors of our company and our largest shareholder have their money down and are fully backing the executive team of FOG.
I leave you too with one further thought. I don't think it's bad news either that early next year Origin will be looking to farm down at least 50% of their holding in the Beetaloo. They won't be selling their share for USD100 per acre! Whatever the figure the hedge funds will have a better basis on how to value our FOG shares.
There does seem to be continued confusion amongst shareholders on this board as to who does what in the Beetaloo Basin. The Origin/FOG wells have been contracted out to Schlumberger. Investors should appreciate too that the strategic decision by POQ and the Board to sell on 'the FOG' royalty has brought in the Sheffield family and with it the appointment of Tom Layman to the FOG board, who is now sharing a lot of his knowledge and experience derived from working with lead companies in the US over the past 30 years. Layman's ability to direct the partners on a new strategic path is already clear and no doubt has influenced other players like Santos, EEG and TBN. In due course Tom's coming on board and the full support of the Sheffield family, will help POQ and our Chairman Joe Nally, to get the FOG message across to investors.
Once and for all people investing in this company and reading this board ought to understand that what Origin has brought us is inter alia a lot of valuable skills on how to deal equitably with all the stakeholders in the Territory, and fly the Australian flag for all and provide the clout to get us preferential treatment when dealing with third parties like Schlumberger.
It's nice to see Mr Newtofo becoming increasingly excited by some of the numbers. He's right of course and so are some on this board who have bought a few more shares this week and pushed the price up a little to more than 9 pence.
Mr Newtofo I was not too surprised so very little was said about the Beetaloo in the annual accounts - a few positive words on the Kyalla and the local people who visited the site. What more of a surprise to me , despite the spectacular numbers announced in the last 7 days by TBN and EEG, was that none of the analysts attending Management's presentation and Q & A session(who asked multi questions) made any reference to the Basin and focused instead on coal and the company's investment in Octopus.
I'm confident we are going to spud our well in September. I'm not too concerned either if this company wishes to farm down part of its Beetaloo stake in the next 6 months or so.
Meanwhile I still say FOG shares are ridiculously cheap and I expect our team will team will take to the road next month once investors are back at their desks (or behind their screens) after the holidays. If nothing else Mr Putin is going to put anything LNG in the news.
Good afternoon Mr Schlemiel,, I gather the note I saw this morning from the Cenkos analyst was one circulated to clients only rather than one posted on their website. Apologies for misleading you.. Notwithstanding the confidentiality and therefore and all the rules against posting it onto this board, I am happy to confirm that its contents were very bullish.on the outlook for FOG's shares.
Cenkos this morning have put out an update on he Beetaloo. Very worthwhile reading.
Mr Otd2000, turnover in Tamboran's stock this morning is AUD 970,000 -that's circa GBP 570,000. It's also 0.5% of its shares in issue. If that were replicated on AIM in London today we would be talking about 6+ million shares changing hands.....The movement in the SP is is pennies I agree but it's +3.5 cents on AUD 0.215 and up therefore 16.3% on the day to AUD 0.25
FOG's market cap was less than GBP 84 million at the close last Friday. That's now ridiculous in the context of the news in the last 7 days from EEG and TBN.
Clearly more good news from Down Under overnight - the latest from the Santos/TBN Tanumbirini 2H and 3H wells in EP161. What should hopefully follow this week are updates to the FOG presentation and further wise words from the Cenkos analyst. Notwithstanding that it bodes well for TBN's Maverick well and Origin/FOG's 2 horizontal wells in the 4Q.
My views on a lot of corporate activity in the next 6-9 months involving the Beetaloo remain the same as before.
Very good management presentation today and I for one very much appreciated POQ giving us full and detailed answers to the very long list of questions that were posed. The event did not disappoint.
Like a few others I've picked up a few more shares in the last month. I see no reason why Falcon shares can't recover by the !Q next year (as POQ commented on during the call) to levels around GBP 25-27 pence where it traded at the end of May 2017 in London, and just under CAD 40 cents over on the TSX. The company has so much more going for it that it had 5 years ago and the price of NLG was only a fraction what it is today. I also leave you with the thought how much more transformation one can hope for if the results from our 2022 programme exceed Management's minimum expectations.
For someone who claims he has sold his shares in Falcon one wonders why the interest in speculating whether the jv will or will not drill this year , whether the Falcon directors can or cannot make decisions on arranging another call etc etc. I can read you like a book. Have a life…Move on
The board discovered the Canadian streaming company was having problems before the call because one of them checked them out an hour before. But they eventually went ahead when the Canadian streaming company said they had fixed it. After the call they found out that some of the Europeans had problems after they got through and they promised immediately if it was not a few instances they would arrange the call to make amends next week.
I think Mr Sneaky you might wish to put your question direct to POQ at the end of this week. In the meantime I recommend you ignore the mischievous comments of others and look to POQ to confirm to you in person that he's telling you the company is looking for (only) 2-3mmcf/day because it reflects the fact that the hurdle rate for commercial development is much less than before in other markets, as circumstances have changed and the price for NLG is much higher in the Far East and south Asia markets. In essence POQ's 2-3 figure is very good news. He's not telling you either that the number might be much higher.
The Sheffield family understands the message. Our new Directors are on board on this as well. That's why you and others (like me) should hang on to your shares.
A pity Origin got somehow into their head they might do a farm down before they completed their 2022 programme. The company has been very good in some respects for Falcon, but on reflection it's better for all that if in future they have a lesser stake and pass on leadership next year on the Beetaloo.
I anticipate that Falcon's position will dramatically evolve over the next 12 months.
Well said Mr Origin789 and Mr JFHealey . I agree too with Mr Stebol .
Mr dprussky's observation is much appreciated and Mr Newtofo's comment is of course very helpful.
Funny how those with the negative vibes have gone to ground in recent days. Personally I have no time for those who make negative comments on the BoD and make misogynistic remarks; and even less when they own up that they sold their shares long ago. Be on your guard too against those with more than one nominee name!
Actually I'm quite certain one party has picked up over one million shares on AIM in London in the last month but don't get too excited one million is a bloc representing only 0.1% (and the 1.5 millionshres traded in Toronto on Friday similarly only rule the dial by 0.15%).
What the buyers are telling you is that FOG shares of course are worth today a minimum of CAD 0.15 or GBP 0.10. But what we're all hoping is that drilling by all all three plays in the Beetaloo in the second half of this year will give us the prospect that FOG shares are worth a lot more.
One other thing that I have also said a number of times previously. The areas we're now focussing on this year are going to be minimally effected by the weather.
'...or someone's not reading all the negative comments here' Very good Mr Newtofo.
Mr JfHealey accurately pointed out that the Company stated 'that it will update the market in the coming months' not days or weeks.
And too true Mr Scinceday1 .... 'one shouldn't sweat because the shares slide a few cents on small volumes'.
I don't feel kindly towards the handful of posters who pop up on or before each AGM in recent years sounding off about individual directors personally under one or more nominee names. Sometimes they hope you forget they have previously posted they sold all their shares. Others claim they have a couple of million shares but unwittingly show themselves up when not having any semblance of knowledge on what one can and what one cannot do as a shareholder of a company quoted on AIM in London or display acumen on reading a set of accounts. Most of them if not nearly all of them don't have good motives and when they get ridiculously personal and even misogynistic we should all draw the line.
There's been no reason to change one's medium term views on FOG in the last couple of months unless one was so foolish to miss some of the recessionary fears that are coming over the horizon. But less Russian gas for sale in the foreseeable future and no OPEC equivalent for LNG drowns out any hope of more equilibrium between demand and supply.
I feel very sorry for some of this board that have been unsettled these past 8 weeks by some of the nonsense posted recently on this board. On the other hand we have had a party accumulating shares in London in the last month and now another one on Friday on TSX.
I am personally looking forward to the Company's short update next week at the AGM and their views on the state of the LNG market down under
I'm expecting more news at the AGM on the jv's drilling programme in the Beetaloo in 2H 2022. For us, Origin sets the tone and Origin as an organisation (thankfully) is not in the same category as Empire or Tamboran. Like it or not therefore don't expect FOG to issue press releases bragging it's going to solve all Australia's energy problems by 2025 latest until it has further drilling successes down the line.
Personally I wouldn't invest in Tamboran at this time. They have not sorted out yet their royalty issues. They've fallen out with Santos and right now they are rolling their dice on their aptly named Maverick well. Notwithstanding that, I still follow the stock closely because any drilling success they might have with their 'super' team of world experts will be almost immediately reflected in the FOG share price. The same is also the case with Empire.
The Market understands fully the similarity of the properties in all four areas where Origin/FOG, Empire, Tamboran and Tamboran/Santos are drilling. Dry and wet gas is clearly prevalent. That's been proven. What the prospectors must now show is that this area can be commercially developed ....and any one of them has a chance now of proving this in the next 12-18 months or even sooner for the benefit of all of them......and when this happens there is no doubt whatsoever that FOG/Origin with 4.6 million acres will be big winners in the group